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Effect of Scottish Independence Vote
Comments
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For how long do you reckon the Scottish energy resources would support the needs of those countries that currently get their gas from Russia? Why is there talk of UK blackouts if Scotland could supply countries outside the UK?
In a Europe that's desperately looking for energy sources not under Putin's control, Scotland's in a position of strength regarding EU negotiations.0 -
You do know that more Scots voted for Thatcher's Conservatives in 1979 than voted for Salmond's SNP in 2011?I recall the Thatcher years. I had to move across the border to get work. That's no big deal, England's a lovely country with nice people. Settled down here with a lovely wife and kids.
The usual misrepresentation."You can't have the Sterling currency we jointly built- we won't let you!" said the three numpties in charge of unionist finance, in a totaly factual and non-threatening way apparently.:rotfl:
It is nothing to do with access to Sterling as a currency. It is freely traded, several countries use it.
The issue with the currency union is the requirement to relinquish sovereignty over national budgets and to underwrite a foreign economy. The FCWG answer boils down to "Yes, rUK may need to bail out iScotland but that shouldn't be a problem because rUK is big enough to take the hit." Yes are openly planning an economy diverging from and competing rUK so the fiscal ties aren't feasible. Even if the requirement to underwrite the future Scottish economy was something the rUK politicians could stomach, polls are clear that the rUK electorate is strongly opposed. It would be political suicide, as well as not making economic sense.
The only reason that Yes want a Sterling currency union is because it minimises the change most people will see. Any other option would be a vote loser (including our own free float currency which is, to be honest, the best option economically). If currency unions are so great, why aren't we hoping to join the Euro? It was SNP policy until they realised that they had a real chance of getting a referendum but people wouldn't vote for it.
A position of strength? When Spain holds a veto that it will use to manipulate proceedings in a way that quells Catalan desires. When France and Germany hold a veto that they will no doubt use to further political agendas, such as breaking up of the CTA in favour of Schengen. While I don't think they would use it, rUK also hold a veto which will be one of the cards to play in the separation negotiation.In a Europe that's desperately looking for energy sources not under Putin's control, Scotland's in a position of strength regarding EU negotiations.
Whatever strength Scotland might have if even further weakened by the timescale imposed by Holyrood. Nobody else gives a monkeys how long negotiations take, but they have set a deadline which encourages "take it or leave it" offers.
To be clear, I strongly believe that Scotland will achieve EU membership. I also strongly believe that it will not be on the present terms. The rebate share will certainly evaporate. Schengen will probably be imposed. As for the Euro, who knows!
The energy sources are a red herring beyond existing oil and gas (which are useful, but far from a complete solution and not as important as political point scoring). As much as Scotland has a lot of renewable potential, the costs of exploiting that are unpalatable and the timescales to do so are far longer than any politician cares about.
Oh I have read newsnet and wings. Appalling - there is more politics than news. If the mainstream media is biased, the solution isn't extreme bias in the other direction. And I don't think that someone who laughed at 9/11 is someone Yes should be standing behind.but perhaps also read some of the websites( Wings, Newsnet etc.), and then either accepting some of their ideas or not, depending on your juedgement. Is that not fair?
I prefer to read what Yes, BT, business, academia, etc etc say directly without having it spun to suit a particular reporting agenda.0 -
Wonder what the poll tax did to the number of voters. Was it a boost? Plus more voters probably left than arrived.You do know that more Scots voted for Thatcher's Conservatives in 1979 than voted for Salmond's SNP in 2011?
Do you really think rUK and Scotland will diverge like Germany and Greece? Seriously?It is nothing to do with access to Sterling as a currency. It is freely traded, several countries use it.
The issue with the currency union is the requirement to relinquish sovereignty over national budgets and to underwrite a foreign economy. The FCWG answer boils down to "Yes, rUK may need to bail out iScotland but that shouldn't be a problem because rUK is big enough to take the hit." Yes are openly planning an economy diverging from and competing rUK so the fiscal ties aren't feasible. Even if the requirement to underwrite the future Scottish economy was something the rUK politicians could stomach, polls are clear that the rUK electorate is strongly opposed. It would be political suicide, as well as not making economic sense.
The only reason that Yes want a Sterling currency union is because it minimises the change most people will see. Any other option would be a vote loser (including our own free float currency which is, to be honest, the best option economically). If currency unions are so great, why aren't we hoping to join the Euro? It was SNP policy until they realised that they had a real chance of getting a referendum but people wouldn't vote for it.A position of strength? When Spain holds a veto that it will use to manipulate proceedings in a way that quells Catalan desires. When France and Germany hold a veto that they will no doubt use to further political agendas, such as breaking up of the CTA in favour of Schengen. While I don't think they would use it, rUK also hold a veto which will be one of the cards to play in the separation negotiation.
Germany gets a chunk of its oil from UK waters now.
It'll be worried about nuclear-free energy security and it's bankrolling Spain and France. Spain's got food security to worry about. If Scotland's out there's empty plates on the table.
It just ain't happening that way and the SG know it.Whatever strength Scotland might have if even further weakened by the timescale imposed by Holyrood. Nobody else gives a monkeys how long negotiations take, but they have set a deadline which encourages "take it or leave it" offers.
I agree with recent debates that they should be flexible about independence dates so as not to give away negotiation chips
They may take the Euro Swedish-style.To be clear, I strongly believe that Scotland will achieve EU membership. I also strongly believe that it will not be on the present terms. The rebate share will certainly evaporate. Schengen will probably be imposed. As for the Euro, who knows!The energy sources are a red herring beyond existing oil and gas (which are useful, but far from a complete solution and not as important as political point scoring). As much as Scotland has a lot of renewable potential, the costs of exploiting that are unpalatable and the timescales to do so are far longer than any politician cares about.
I don't know . The Nats look as though they could be in power for a while. The opposition are a bunch of unelectable chumps; if you asked any of them to count their hands twice, you'd get three different answers.
Good luck with that.I prefer to read what Yes, BT, business, academia, etc etc say directly without having it spun to suit a particular reporting agenda.For how long do you reckon the Scottish energy resources would support the needs of those countries that currently get their gas from Russia? Why is there talk of UK blackouts if Scotland could supply countries outside the UK?
Very timely. The SG has criticised the UK government's attitude to infrastructure and security and pointed out that Scotland can help maintain supplies.There is no honour to be had in not knowing a thing that can be known - Danny Baker0 -
This is new news to me, that Scotland is responsible for feeding Spain. And the implied threat of no food for Spain if Scotland weren't in the EU is a rather immature position to take. As an aside, what exactly what would Scotland gain from not selling any surplus food they may have?Spain's got food security to worry about. If Scotland's out there's empty plates on the table.Very timely. The SG has criticised the UK government's attitude to infrastructure and security and pointed out that Scotland can help maintain supplies.
Thanks for that article. It doesn't actually answer either of my questions. It's just another "we know better than you" article. If anyone, scottish or whatever nationality, did indeed have the answer to all the UK energy issues, I am sure they would have their hand bitten off. And even more so, if anyone had the answer on how to turn off the dependency on russian gas.0 -
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Do you really think rUK and Scotland will diverge like Germany and Greece? Seriously?
Strawman.
With different priorities, different approaches to taxation, different approaches to the size of the state, not to mention a great asymmetry in size, a fiscal pact simply won't work. Even if the will were there, iScotland and rUK wouldn't be able to agree rules that work for both countries (or they would agree rules so loose as to be useless).
Tight economic cooperation and close economic alignment is fundamental to a successful currency union. The vision we are presented with contains neither.
I don't think the economic argument will really have any impact anyway. Any rUK party that committed to a currency union would find themselves confined to the opposition benches. If you haven't noticed, UKIP are doing rather well on the back of the "loss of sovereignty" argument - there is no appetite in rUK to give up even more whether to Europe or iScotland. I gather Scotland is likely to have a UKIP member elected soon, so that feeling must extent up here too...The opposition are a bunch of unelectable chumps; if you asked any of them to count their hands twice, you'd get three different answers.
Here we have something I think we can agree on!0 -
I'm not a fan of a monetary union but it is perfectly viable in the short/medium term.
The UK is an optimum currency area and that is not likely to change in the short/medium term regardless of the constitutional set-up.
UKIP are regarded as swivel-eyed loons in Scotland and have 0% chance of getting a Scottish seat, so i have no idea where you get that idea.Strawman.
With different priorities, different approaches to taxation, different approaches to the size of the state, not to mention a great asymmetry in size, a fiscal pact simply won't work. Even if the will were there, iScotland and rUK wouldn't be able to agree rules that work for both countries (or they would agree rules so loose as to be useless).
Tight economic cooperation and close economic alignment is fundamental to a successful currency union. The vision we are presented with contains neither.
I don't think the economic argument will really have any impact anyway. Any rUK party that committed to a currency union would find themselves confined to the opposition benches. If you haven't noticed, UKIP are doing rather well on the back of the "loss of sovereignty" argument - there is no appetite in rUK to give up even more whether to Europe or iScotland. I gather Scotland is likely to have a UKIP member elected soon, so that feeling must extent up here too...This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0 -
Do you really think rUK and Scotland will diverge like Germany and Greece? Seriously?.
I don't think Germany and Greece is a good comparison.
The UK of today, in growth, with falling unemployment and increasing wages and wealth.... versus the post recession Ireland of today, still struggling with horrific unemployment, poverty and wealth destruction on an epic scale..... is a much more accurate comparison.
Scotland's recession/depression after separating from the UK would be deep, brutal, and long lasting.
You'd be talking significant wage cuts, double digit unemployment, crippling reductions in services, and savage falls to people's standard of living as prices and taxes both soared.
Pick some of the worst hit areas of the UK in the recent recession, then increase the severity, ramp up the misery factor, and then let it last for a decade...... and you're probably getting close to what the reality would be.
We would of course survive as an independent nation.
But it would be a fairly miserable experience for most.....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
...... a monetary union but it is perfectly viable in the short/medium term.
I beg to disagree. It is clearly not a perfectly viable option since the vast majority of rUK doesn't want it (and for good reason), not even for a short term. You know, this is a democracy where everybody has a say, not just people living in Scotland.
The majority of rUK people do not care how often Alex Salmond and other Nats say it will 'make sense' or 'be in the interest' of rUK for Scotland to retain the pound without a fiscal union. Not unlike you, we can make up our own minds about matters that concern us, and we do not wish to be in a currency union without a fiscal union. And that's about the end of it.0 -
I'm not a fan of a monetary union but it is perfectly viable in the short/medium term.
The UK is an optimum currency area and that is not likely to change in the short/medium term regardless of the constitutional set-up.
UKIP are regarded as swivel-eyed loons in Scotland and have 0% chance of getting a Scottish seat, so i have no idea where you get that idea.
He/she may be relating to news headlines that a Tory MEP may lose their seat and be replaced by another bonkers eejit.There is no honour to be had in not knowing a thing that can be known - Danny Baker0
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