Effect of Scottish Independence Vote

black_taxi_2

where do You buy the guns,tesco

Talking stupid

giffnockhibee

black_taxi wrote: »

SCOTLAND ON SUNDAY TOMORROW

The largest swing towards a Yes vote recorded so far in the campaign is revealed today in an ICM survey for Scotland on Sunday, which has found that support for independence has grown from 32 per cent to 37 per cent since September.

The surge in those backing Yes was accompanied by a corresponding drop in No support by five percentage points from 49 per cent in September to 44 per cent currently.

The poll also found that when the 19 per cent who said they didn’t know how they would vote were excluded, support for Yes is at 46 per cent compared with 54 per cent who said they would vote No.

There was more good news for Yes Scotland, when the “don’t knows” were pressed further on their views on independence. When they disclosed how they were “most likely” to vote, the results were factored into the equation and the pollsters found that support for independence stood at 47 per cent compared with 53 per cent in favour of No.

Polls are good.

black_taxi wrote: »

only poll that counts is sept 18th

Polls are bad.

planteria

it's April 1st, so thought i ought to resurrect this thread...

from SJP:

"The Scottish question

Meanwhile, in Scotland the debate about the cost of a yes vote for independence has continued to rumble with
the referendum now only six months away. Scotland’s financial services and banking industry last week found
itself drawn into the fray over the cost and length of disruption if Scotland were to choose to break away. The
former Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) chief executive, Sir George Mathewson, claimed independence would
benefit the financial sector; while the trade body, Scottish Financial Enterprise (SFE), has highlighted the
uncertainty that a yes vote would stir for the nation’s currency and the prospect of higher regulatory costs. Sir
George also has the support of Angus Tulloch of fund managers First State. Both claim that independence
would offer opportunities to attract more jobs and investment to Scotland and its financial services industry.
However, RBS, Lloyds and other institutions have identified risks to their businesses in the event of a yes vote,
while Standard Life has warned that a vote to leave the union could lead to it moving operations out of
Scotland.

However, fund manager BlackRock has highlighted the “major uncertainties, costs and risks” for Scotland and
the UK from a breakup of the 307-year-old union. BlackRock said that currency union was unfeasible, and
Scotland adopting its own currency was the best of the few choices open to Edinburgh in the event of breakup.
The fund manager also warned that Scotland’s cost of borrowing could rise, with its credit rating likely to be
several notches below the UK’s rating. The fund manager also cited concerns over currency strategy, monetary
credibility and a banking sector 12 times the size of Scotland’s GDP. “Kilt-edged securities would sell at higher
yields. Scotland would have to pay more to borrow than the UK, and accept shorter maturities,” BlackRock
said. “The country’s likely high debt, fiscal deficit, weak economic growth, lack of institutional frameworks
and low forex reserves suggest a higher-than-normal debut sovereign yield spread. This would add to
Scotland’s fiscal stress.” "

"Kilt-edged securities":D

Borrowedtune

I am glad that Tulloch's fund is doing so well that he can afford to take time off and dabble in politics.


Oh, wait, actually his fund has lost 6% over the past year.


So, maybe he should concentrate on doing the job I and other investors are paying him richly to do: i.e. to grow rather than shrink our money.

planteria

i would feel the same, in your shoes. he is highly rated though.

some amazing SNP drivel spouted in R4 this morning...in response to the Nick&Nige debate. direct claims that Scotland is an existing EU State...with no acceptance of the facts.

how are the polls looking now? is the 'Yes' campaign looking any more likely to win through?

rpc

planteria wrote: »

some amazing SNP drivel spouted in R4 this morning...in response to the Nick&Nige debate. direct claims that Scotland is an existing EU State...with no acceptance of the facts.

Prof Tomkins v Andy Miles on newsnight was rather interesting and covered some of the same ground. And very soon after that, Nicola Sturgeon cancelled her planned debate with Prof Tomkins...

how are the polls looking now? is the 'Yes' campaign looking any more likely to win through?

Not much change, there never has been. http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/should-scotland-be-an-independent-country-1#line or http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum Certainly no trend, a fairly steady 10 point lead for no, with a bit of noise around it.

If you want to follow the money
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

ColdIron

planteria wrote: »

how are the polls looking now? is the 'Yes' campaign looking any more likely to win through?

Betfair holding pretty steady, a bit of a drift out for the No vote from 1.21 to 1.25. Or in other words chance of a No majority of was 82.5% and is now 80%

http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=110033387&selectionId=5334893&timeZone=Europe/London&region=GBR&locale=en&brand=betfair&currency=GBP

atush

Borrowedtune wrote: »

I am glad that Tulloch's fund is doing so well that he can afford to take time off and dabble in politics.


Oh, wait, actually his fund has lost 6% over the past year.


So, maybe he should concentrate on doing the job I and other investors are paying him richly to do: i.e. to grow rather than shrink our money.

What is he investing in ? I just got one of our pension statements today- up 18% last year.

planteria

rpc wrote: »

Prof Tomkins v Andy Miles on newsnight was rather interesting and covered some of the same ground. And very soon after that, Nicola Sturgeon cancelled her planned debate with Prof Tomkins...

:laugh:she's an angry, bitter, blinkered clown.

bigadaj

planteria wrote: »

:laugh:she's an angry, bitter, blinkered clown.

That's a bit harsh, as with the majority of politicians she's self serving her own interests both now and in the future. Lucrative salary and benefits currently and from a scottish perspective independence may well represent a better opportunity for lucrative non executive directorships in the future whereas these would now be london based.