Effect of Scottish Independence Vote

rpc

planteria wrote: »

"A Scottish government spokeswoman said: "The Scottish government agree with Shell that the real risk facing the oil and gas sector is the proposed in-out referendum on EU membership, which risks taking Scotland out of Europe with all the consequences for jobs, investment and prosperity that would entail.":laugh:

Well, as usual, they haven't read the bits that they don't agree with.

The other common line is that the problem is Westminster rejecting a currency union so rUK should listen up and agree to one.

At least with an in-out referendum, the control is placed in the hands of the UK people. With an independence vote, our EU membership, and more particularly the conditions that are attached to it, is in the hands of politicians who will use the situation to further their own ends - ends which probably don't align with what Scots want.

grey_gym_sock

rpc wrote: »

With an independence vote, our EU membership, and more particularly the conditions that are attached to it, is in the hands of politicians who will use the situation to further their own ends - ends which probably don't align with what Scots want.

indeed. i don't think scotland would have any problem getting EU membership, even immediately at independence; but they would probably get shafted on the details (e.g. fishing rights; rebates).

Heedtheadvice

Well spotted P. I too read that statement and could not believe the rather loose interpretation. I certainly do not agree with all your posts but you certainly picked up on that spokewoman's rather grasping at straws to get something positive out of the comments.

I understood him to be saying that stability and predictability were key. Although he did not say it outright the implication was clearly that a change to an independent position for Scotland would produce uncertainties i.e. exactly the opposite of his (Van Burden's) wishes for his business.

I also note another report tells us that a poll of oil workers are 70% in favour of a Yes vote. Perhaps not surprising as they are the rich workers, probably have a rosy view of their own prosperity and are in an industry that Alex S likes to woo. The SNP have hardly stated how they would raise funds to give all the extra services they promise and could raise income or other taxes to pay for them. Don't the oil workers see they could be hardest hit for tax, especially if Scotland went down the Nordic route, and when the industry finally winds down (which it must eventually) they will still be paying high prices which the Nordic model produces. (I do remember many many years ago when it was £5 for a beer over there and food was twice the cost of the UK ). Strike me they are both selfish and blinkered.

We all need to look at a longer time scale as well as the short term pros and cons.

zagubov

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

indeed. i don't think scotland would have any problem getting EU membership, even immediately at independence; but they would probably get shafted on the details (e.g. fishing rights; rebates).

Scotland should audit what it has to bring to the table and negotiate from its position of strength.

Many posters on here undervalue Scotland and its assets. Scotlands negotiating team had better get a full measure of them.

grey_gym_sock

zagubov wrote: »

Scotland should audit what it has to bring to the table and negotiate from its position of strength.

it's not that the rest of the EU wouldn't want scotland in. they would.

what i'm thinking about is the dynamic of a negotiation where the scottish government has said that scotland will be in the EU, and the other governments each have a veto. they will realize that they can offer membership on quite unfavourable terms, and the scottish government will say yes.

giffnockhibee

Heedtheadvice wrote: »

I also note another report tells us that a poll of oil workers are 70% in favour of a Yes vote. Perhaps not surprising as they are the rich workers, probably have a rosy view of their own prosperity and are in an industry that Alex S likes to woo.

Well, yes. After independence, they could hold the country to ransom at any time, faster than you can say "French Farmers".

They are also of working age, and have skills which they could take to any oil field in the world, if/when Salmond's kingdom goes belly up.

zagubov

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

it's not that the rest of the EU wouldn't want scotland in. they would.

what i'm thinking about is the dynamic of a negotiation where the scottish government has said that scotland will be in the EU, and the other governments each have a veto. they will realize that they can offer membership on quite unfavourable terms, and the scottish government will say yes.

It should be in Scotland's interests to have a referendum on
i) EU entry
ii) NATO entry
so that negotiators know what the public want.

Norway's not in the EU. neither's Switzerland (not even in NATO).

Organisations with too steep an entry price will just have to wait till Scotland has the will to pay the price (or the price will have to come down).

grey_gym_sock

well, that's a perfectly arguable policy, but it isn't the SNP's policy, and they will be conducting the initial negotiations if the referendum is carried.

zagubov

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

well, that's a perfectly arguable policy, but it isn't the SNP's policy, and they will be conducting the initial negotiations if the referendum is carried.

Were they not discussing the negotiaitons being a cross-party matter, where Scottish reps of the main unionist parties have an input?

rpc

They say:

The negotiating team will be led by the First Minister, and the process will include figures from across Scottish public life and Scotland’s other political parties. During the transition period the Government will seek the agreement of the Scottish Parliament to extend its sitting days to ensure full democratic scrutiny of the process and to provide adequate time for the necessary legislation to be passed.

So we have no idea what the involvement of the other parties will be. There will certainly be the opportunity to challenge it in Parliament, but as the SNP have a majority...

Curiously, the SNP also claim that the preparation for independence will required all reserved powers to be devolved asap after a Yes vote. I'd have thought that it would make more sense to change as little as possible until a settlement is agreed. Of course, if all powers are devolved to Holyrood right at the start, there is less urgency about reaching agreement on independence...