Effect of Scottish Independence Vote

rpc

black_taxi wrote: »

The same principle would apply to banks in an independent Scotland. Most of their trade would be abroad and that’s where the bail-out would take place.

Well if their trade is abroad, then their income is abroad and their employment is abroad, so you can write huge chunks of the (rather large) financial sector from Scotland's GDP and taxation.

If the vision is that all we have left after independence is retail banking, then that's one option but there is little profit and reducing employment there.

Most governments want large businesses based within their tax regime and jobs created within their country. Not true for an independent Scotland, I guess. Oil will run out, money probably won't...


Quoted figures for the size of Scotland's financial sector aren't global figures for the whole umbrella of Scottish banks, they are the Scottish domestic numbers based on what goes on inside our borders.

planteria

Triumph13 wrote: »

..the rUK is not going to stand behind the currency of an independent Scotland.

it is as simple as that. regardless of how strong the denials of the obvious.

planteria

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

please let's not conflate the issues. EU membership is perfectly realistic.

longer term, yes, if Scotland successfully applies to join. they aren't going to 'stay in'. and they won't be successful applicants straight away, as done to death above. being a member of the EU might not continue to appeal as much by then though. there will be changes in the interim.

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

the scottish pound would be just as real a pound as the south british pound. laws would be passed to determine which accounts, contracts, debts, etc, that are currently in pounds, would be converted to scottish pounds, and which to south british pounds. and crucially, the share of the national debt which scotland takes over would be in scottish pounds, avoiding the problems of having a debt without controlling the currency.

it may not be your first preference, but this is all perfectly workable.

totally agree.

grey_gym_sock

planteria wrote: »

they won't be successful applicants straight away, as done to death above.

done to death, but nobody's explained why they wouldn't be successful right away. "right away" gives them at least 18 months, or longer if the simultaneous negotiations with the UK government take longer (which seems very likely, partly because the UK government might be replaced part way though the process).

innovate

Lots and lots of practical reasons why "straight away" won't work. Where "straight away" would mean the day on which Scotland becomes independent as well as the day all the existing member states have unanimously agreed to Scotland being a member.

Very simple things, such as seats in the Parliament with the Scottish flag, and very complex things, such as signatures under legally binding documents from people properly entitled to sign on behalf of Scotland.

There is no precedence or provision for a member state to split. The only provision for a new country to join is the normal accession procedure, which definitely is not a "straight away" procedure since it takes a minimum of some 7-10 years.

The entire matter might get further complicated with the UK in/out referendum, which may well have voted "out" before Scotland is an independent state.

The only thing that is certain in this entire matter is uncertainty. A wonderful thing for a prospering economy (not).

planteria

innovate wrote: »

The entire matter might get further complicated with the UK in/out referendum, which may well have voted "out" before Scotland is an independent state.

a very good point. i sincerely hope there is no "in" for Scotland to try to "remain";)

planteria

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

done to death, but nobody's explained why they wouldn't be successful right away.

i think it has. people are showing their hand as much as they need to form a clear opinion. noone here needs to prove that a member state will vote against Scotland remaining in or joining the EU. but it is still clear. The people of Scotland aren't, sensibly, going to vote 'Yes' when they aren't going to be able to have what they want if they do so... but i still hope they do:T

black_taxi_2

tories need a majority for in/ out EU referendum

wont happen

planteria

what do you mean?

black_taxi_2

election 2015