Effect of Scottish Independence Vote

bowlhead99

ColdIron wrote: »

Me, I'll settle for a more likely, but still rewarding, 23%

I'm with you on that. I think you've much more likelihood of getting 20%+ on that bet over the next 7 months than on say FTSE in the same timescale. The downside if we're wrong of course is 100%, as it's a binary bet. Which can't be said for the FTSE or SP500.

I wonder how late in the day that sort of price will be available? I mean 20% in 7 months is good, but 20% in a few weeks would be a more tempting risk, given a downside loss does exist and with this sort of bet your money is effectively dead for half a year. At the moment I have £400 'invested' in the hope of cashing out £500+, but if the price is still available nearer the time and the Braveheart contingent aren't better in the polls than now, I would be somewhat tempted to increase that to 5 or 10x the amount.

ColdIron

As a general rule political betting is much less volatile than, say, the Wimbledon Final in play where the odds yo-yo all over the place, as there are very few significant upsets. All things being equal, unless there is a game changing event I'd expect the odds to tighten a little but not to the extent where Michael Schumacher turns the final corner at Hockenheim and odds drop to 1.01 or are unavailable. If the odds are still 1.2 ish a month out, in the parlance, I'd 'fill yer boots'

giffnockhibee

ColdIron wrote: »

As a general rule political betting is much less volatile than, say, the Wimbledon Final in play where the odds yo-yo all over the place, as there are very few significant upsets. All things being equal, unless there is a game changing event I'd expect the odds to tighten a little but not to the extent where Michael Schumacher turns the final corner at Hockenheim and odds drop to 1.01 or are unavailable. If the odds are still 1.2 ish a month out, in the parlance, I'd 'fill yer boots'

If we can get past the World Cup without England winning it, that's the time to pile in on "No".

black_taxi_2

https://mobile.twitter.com/tennesseetigres/tweets



interesting views whoever she is lol

jauntyangle

giffnockhibee wrote: »

If we can get past the World Cup without England winning it, that's the time to pile in on "No".

I think we can all safely assume England aren't going to win the World Cup.

Triumph13

Telegraph today claiming that Salmond has revealed 'Plan B' as using Sterling without currency union which would mean no say over monetary policy.

Whilst that might not be great for Scotland, it sounds perfect for Mr Salmond - he gets independence, but still gets to blame the English for anything that goes wrong by blaming it all on rUK monetary policy...

rpc

jauntyangle wrote: »

I think we can all safely assume England aren't going to win the World Cup.

That's bluster, bullying and anti-English!

rpc

Triumph13 wrote: »

Telegraph today claiming that Salmond has revealed 'Plan B' as using Sterling without currency union which would mean no say over monetary policy.

It has been the line taken by many Yes supporters, so isn't exactly unexpected.

Most people will be taken in by this, I don't think the masses really understand the functions of a central bank. Alex is a master of telling people what will get him votes (his current public position on many issues is a long way from his historical beliefs). Yes has already spun the currency issue by turning the argument over monetary/currency union into pretending Westminster were trying to stop Scotland using the pound at all.

I happen to think this is just about the worst currency option he could have chosen for us. A new floated currency would be bad (especially to begin with as it takes time to settle), but this would be worse!

atush

rpc wrote: »

That's bluster, bullying and anti-English!

And here i was thinking it was realism

moneyfoolish

atush wrote: »

And here i was thinking it was realism

It's certainly one of the very few things that I'd bet my house on!