Effect of Scottish Independence Vote

black_taxi_2

Scottish press seems to be moving decidedly toward 'Yes' benefits over the past week


is that oor wullie or the broons

atush

Heedtheadvice wrote: »

Oh! Thanks Atush! I now feel like an ignoramus!:D

Any signs from your window of the masses forming at the border to meet DC on his way to Aberdeen? Scottish press seems to be moving decidedly toward 'Yes' benefits over the past week or two (following the comments by DC and Geo O)
.......but followed on a few pages later by the benefits of the UK ISA allowance :eek:

No signs from my window, unless they decide to come via boat like the Vikings.

I am surprised there have been no Anti David Bowie comments or comments about how cohesive Team GB is.

Apparently the other countries have noticed how much the team stick together compared to other countries. If they only knew lol. I suspect the Scottish Team GB athletes would be very sorry to see their funding disappear overnight?

ColdIron

Heedtheadvice wrote: »

Scottish press seems to be moving decidedly toward 'Yes' benefits over the past week or two

Well, except The Scotsman and it's ICM poll out today that is

Support for a No vote has climbed five points to 49 per cent in the space of a month and now enjoys a 12-point gap over the pro-independence side, which is unchanged on 37 per cent. It suggests a significant number of undecideds have shifted to No.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371

And Betfair remains stubbornly unchanged
http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=110033387&selectionId=5334893&timeZone=Europe/London&locale=en&region=GBR&brand=betfair&currency=GBP

Not sure it was wise to send Cam & Co north of the border though

Archi_Bald

ColdIron wrote: »

Not sure it was wise to send Cam & Co north of the border though

It's their cunning plan to get rid of Scotland . Forty-odd fewer Lab MPs etc

giffnockhibee

Good article on the independence "timetable" in today's Observer.

Professor Iain McLean: obstacles to early independence are 'blindingly obvious'.
If the Scots vote yes to independence on 18 September, the Scottish government hopes that Independence Day will be on 24 March 2016, and that the first parliament of an independent Scotland will be elected on 5 May that year. It points out that the UK government has promised to "work together constructively in the light of the outcome, whatever it is". So, can independence be achieved in 18 months?
Most academic experts think not. The prominent constitutional lawyer Adam Tomkins has described the Scottish government's timetable as "risible". Other legal heavyweights have agreed, in less colourful language: they include Lord Hope, the recently retired Scottish Supreme Court justice, and Kenneth Armstrong, professor of European law at Cambridge.
But the issues are as much political as legal. The Scottish government's white paper states what it would like to achieve after a yes vote, but in its candid moments it accepts what is blindingly obvious, namely that the outcomes on currency, the Trident base at Faslane, common travel areas, apportionment of debts and numerous other vital issues are not solely in its hands. Each of them involves a negotiating partner, or counterparty. On currency and debts, the counterparty is the government of the rest of the UK (rUK). On EU membership, it is the European council. On Faslane, there are two counterparties: rUK in relation to the site, and the Nato council in relation to Scotland's application for membership. On maintaining the existing passport-free travel zone, the counterparty is not rUK alone but also the governments of Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands.
These will all be known unknowns the day after the referendum. One of them – currency – will be settled immediately. The others may not be settled until long after. George Osborne recently announced that a currency union would not be in the interests of rUK. He was backed by Danny Alexander and Ed Balls. Is this bluff, as Alex Salmond says? No. The most important document is the letter from the Treasury permanent secretary, Sir Nicholas Macpherson. Like Bank of England governor Mark Carney earlier, Sir Nicholas gives the economic reasons why the markets would not consider a currency union credible. The 1993 currency union between the Czech Republic and Slovakia lasted, in effect, less than a week. Any currency union between Scotland and rUK will start to unravel on 19 September this year, as families and businesses hedge against the weaker economy. The Scottish government must announce a Plan B by then at latest.
On the other matters, rUK has no incentive to hurry. Prime minister David Cameron will not want to be the unionist who repealed the 1707 Act of Union. His mandate expires in May 2015. We don't know what will follow. Unless it is a re-creation of the present coalition, it will want to restart negotiations from scratch.
The 2015-20 parliament will include 59 Scottish MPs, who will vanish after Independence Day. Their disappearance may alter the partisan make-up of that parliament, possibly forcing another UK general election if it causes the 2015 government to lose its majority. The negotiations on Faslane, EU membership and debt assignment cannot be concluded until the UK negotiators have a package that will be accepted by the 2015-20 parliament.
The example of Irish independence in 1921-22 is surprisingly unhelpful. True, Michael Collins and Winston Churchill, who had recently been at war, agreed a treaty that was ratified by both parliaments in 1922. But Irish MPs had already left Westminster and British administration in Ireland had collapsed. The consensus this time actually makes things harder.

Iain McLean is professor of politics, Oxford University, and co-author of Scotland's Choices (Edinburgh University Press, 2013). This article is based on his recent evidence to the Commons Scottish affairs and Lords constitution select committees

black_taxi_2

A rolling monthly average of the 17 referendum polls since last November across different polling organisations, which shows a steady increase in Yes support month-on-month.

The results on a binary basis - i.e after excluding 'don't knows' - shows that average Yes polling support in November was 38%, December 39%, January 41%, and February 43%. Therefore, the average monthly gap between Yes and No has closed by 10 points between last November and February.

black_taxi_2

im YES

but im trusting NONE of the polls whoever it favours

only poll that matters is sept 18th whatever result

ColdIron

Nope, I wouldn't put too much store in polls, talk is cheap. I'd rather put my faith in a market where people have something to lose. You could put a cheeky £100 on Yes at your local Gentleman of the Turf at 4/1 for a 400% ROI in 7 months. Me, I'll settle for a more likely, but still rewarding, 23%

black_taxi_2

Only the third time in history that the UK cabinet has met in Scotland (1921, 2009, Feb 2014).

tomorrow ABERDEEN

atush

Better late than never lol