📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!

Is the stock market over heating?

Options
1495052545562

Comments

  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,793 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    edited 20 June 2013 at 7:18PM
    lvader wrote: »
    Today was a great day, i have a newly created SIPP with 90k cash transfered from a stake holders pension. I was like a kid in a sweet shop. 20k invested so far, plenty left for further drops.

    I've just put 55k into an all share ftse tracker, but it has more to do with balancing my portfolio than a belief that the ftse is about to take off. My revised portfolio now stands as:

    Property 59.7% (excl. home)
    cash 19.1%
    pension 10.8%
    shares 10.4%

    I'd like to get another 45k into the ftse but don't want to invest just now in case it falls again and also that 45k is the last of my available (penalty free) cash until a 50k fixed rate bond matures in Nov.

    EDIT: I don't have anything in bonds or commodities and I don't feel inclined to do so, anyone got a good argument why I should invest in them?
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • lvader
    lvader Posts: 2,579 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Commodities are an important asset class, it's mainly an inflation hedge. It's very important for me because I have a frozen final salary pension which would get decimated by high inflation. Right now commodities are performing badly because the global growth and inflation outlook looks weak but things can change quickly.
  • pqrdef
    pqrdef Posts: 4,552 Forumite
    Anyone reckon the ftse will nose dive to 4000?
    The markets are under a cloud now - a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Any professional investor or adviser or broker who recommends piling into equities now runs the risk that if his guess turns out to be wrong then it'll be very hard to justify.

    Given that nobody knows which way markets will go, pros with backs to cover will tend to go for whichever policy seems less likely to look stupid with hindsight.

    So will they buy or sell?
    "It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,793 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    lvader wrote: »
    Commodities are an important asset class, it's mainly an inflation hedge. It's very important for me because I have a frozen final salary pension which would get decimated by high inflation. Right now commodities are performing badly because the global growth and inflation outlook looks weak but things can change quickly.

    They might be something that I look at later but right now I am concentrating on investing in my pension (additional contributions to the teachers pension fund) and shares.
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • TCA
    TCA Posts: 1,620 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    lvader wrote: »
    I think there is too much money and no where for it to go for the FTSE to drop to 4000, maybe a short lived drop to the low 5000’s.

    Out of interest, over what timeframe do you predict the FTSE drop to 5000 odd?
  • lvader
    lvader Posts: 2,579 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    When I invest in commodities it normally is buying shares. Miners and oil companies are a good way to get commodity exposure. Even tracking the FTSE 100 gives you a fair bit.
  • lvader
    lvader Posts: 2,579 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    TCA wrote: »
    Out of interest, over what timeframe do you predict the FTSE drop to 5000 odd?

    If it happens, by September or October.
  • sabretoothtigger
    sabretoothtigger Posts: 10,036 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Photogenic Combo Breaker
    Food and petrol are commodities. Own what you use, same as a house except much harder to do. I also opt to go with businesses also, its hard to store alot of the raw stuff

    I think options expire tomorrow which may bring us back up for a while. This is smoke and mirrors anyway, Fed might do something in future so now we sell - riiight

    Bonds are future cash, some need that most often those no longer earning. My take is UK and USA import massively, its more prudent to own cash in future to pay for those imports then dabble in our QE poisoned lot.
    I own non western bonds and asian infrastructure, seems to be they need more investment then us and do more with it
    lvader wrote: »
    If it happens, by September or October.

    It'll be ready to bounce by autumn, thats when we return to play. This is just an intermission play
  • A_Flock_Of_Sheep
    A_Flock_Of_Sheep Posts: 5,332 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker PPI Party Pooper
    edited 20 June 2013 at 7:59PM
    I dont know - I guess maybe one way to view the worst case is the FTSE will drop to the level it was before QE kicked in. Thats said I would have thought people carpet bagging on QE would have been a gradual run up - not QE announced and then everyone immediately piling in.

    I think there will be some good buying times ahead though. Plus don't forget the dividends!

    The burning question is at what level will it drop due to the tree being shaken by Bernanke and all the QE investors dropping from the branches leaving everyone else.
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,793 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    lvader wrote: »
    When I invest in commodities it normally is buying shares. Miners and oil companies are a good way to get commodity exposure. Even tracking the FTSE 100 gives you a fair bit.


    Most of my shares investment is in trackers, so as you say I do actually have some commodity investment.
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
This discussion has been closed.
Meet your Ambassadors

🚀 Getting Started

Hi new member!

Our Getting Started Guide will help you get the most out of the Forum

Categories

  • All Categories
  • 351.2K Banking & Borrowing
  • 253.2K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
  • 453.7K Spending & Discounts
  • 244.2K Work, Benefits & Business
  • 599.2K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
  • 177K Life & Family
  • 257.6K Travel & Transport
  • 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
  • 16.1K Discuss & Feedback
  • 37.6K Read-Only Boards

Is this how you want to be seen?

We see you are using a default avatar. It takes only a few seconds to pick a picture.