Is the stock market over heating?

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

Here is an interesting piece of "noise" concerning property funds and REITs

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/06/06/shares/news-and-analysis/property-stands-corrected-IV2Btbu4GAhdqBR7e3ZKCI/article.html

Masomnia

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

That said, it is interesting that the fund manager of the Artemis UK Equity income fund has recently purchased Lloyds banking group shares as part of the fund portfolio. His reason in his Vlog is that the bank is recovering in readiness for re privatisation and once it gets from here to there there is nothing more for it to do than start making a profit and ultimately with that comes a dividend.

This pleases me greatly.

Had Lloyds for a while now and sitting on a fairly tidy profit. Tempting as it is to sell I reckon it's got a good way to go, mainly as you mention for the dividend. I'm expecting that when that's reinstated there should be some institutional buying; so to see that happening already in anticipation of the dividend is great news.

Just hoping short term that the privatization doesn't do too much damage. Since I'm provisionally planning on holding for ~5 years it isn't too much of a worry though!

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

My sheepdog thinks today will be tentatively up tiddly up up.

bowlhead99

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Where do you find the discount to NAV?
Just looking at the FT which gives a book value per share of £2.34 suggesting about 5% below NAV.
Over the year the share price has risen 19% whilst the earnings per share has dropped 73% :eek:
So still looks expensive to me
http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Financials?s=NRR:LSE

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

Morning Star details the NAV discount/premium.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

New River Retail:

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2012/05/29/shares/news-and-analysis/newriver-is-gushing-income-ce65aR5VTMPb0jHIuJohqO/article.html

1) It doesn't invest in liquid assets so you are not going to get a daily NAV where they tell you the live book value of all the underlying holdings. A shopping centre is not something that has a visibly fluctuating price daily in pence per share. Consequently you can't get a discount/premium from one day to the next.

2) The IC article is over a year old and refers to previous year's results. So the year's high price, low price and 24% discount shown on that page etc are out of date. Since the March 2012 results they have raised £4.5m in new shares at £1.65p, lower than the low point of the share price. And the comment 'broker Investec expects adjusted NAV to rise to 266p by next March' didn't come true ; at March 2013 it was 240p on an EPRA basis or 235p on an IFRS basis. But with those figures they are still on a discount presuming there has been no net income since then (unlikely) and less than a 5% valuation loss (unknown)

You can get the financials and news releases here or anywhere that gives RNSs for shares, and obviously they are duplicated on the company's own site along with glossy versions of financials (released a few weeks ago for last year to March).

Seems they kept total divi for the year in line with EPRA eps of about 16p though this figure includes realised profits on sales ; the IFRS basic eps is lower at ~5p vs ~15p in prior year due to more modest appreciation in actual values since last year end.

HTH

bowlhead99

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

My sheepdog thinks today will be tentatively up tiddly up up.

Mine thinks the FTSE will be looping the loop and defying the ground. Tentatively of course.

IG index has the closing price at 6345 which is half a percent or so up, i.e. the market is presuming the direction of travel will follow Wall Street and Nikkei since yesterday's UK close.

mystic_trev

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

Here is an interesting piece of "noise" concerning property funds and REITs

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/06/06/shares/news-and-analysis/property-stands-corrected-IV2Btbu4GAhdqBR7e3ZKCI/article.html

If I took tips from IC I'd be a poor man

Glastoun

I read this quote in a Reuters article:

"Nikkei still holds below Ichimoku cloud in bearish sign"

...and realised that market analysis is on a par with astrology.


I'm off to put all my money in biscuits.

sabretoothtigger

To be fair Japanese candlesticks and the like are the domain of the far east trading by rights!
First used on grain prices apparently. Its only voodoo if you think it can tell the future when its really restating the past in different perspectives, the conclusions are the viewers

Glen_Clark

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

I have National Grid yes. Have held them since February and got some recently when the price dropped. Over 5% yield but the share price is falling. Not sure why.

5 yearly price review coming up soon?
Traditionally, utility shares fall before the price review, then rise afterwards when they find the regulator has been quite kind to the utility companies.
But the regulator may not be so kind this time - link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/10116608/Questor-share-tip-Hold-Severn-Trent-as-focus-moves-to-the-regulator.html

sabretoothtigger

I reckon Centricia is a good one even after the rise, both sides of the pond and just got a bit of fracking which seems a wise option to keep.
Main perspective on utilities is the nuclear debate, if that giant falls silent the burden falls heavy on the rest of them to make up any energy shortfall

Lloyds still have to worry about financing, otherwise they should be good but they are skint till people repay. Whats their debt schedule like, it was 200bn due in 2008 for hbos