Dan Hodges on why Labour will probably loose the election.

Conrad

Life long Labour Man Dan Hodges gives a forensic narrative on why he thinks Labour are heading for defeat.

He highlights things like Labour being identified as the party of welfare, wanting to free PS pay whilst increasing benefits.



5 minutes in;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01s1q2r/This_Week_18_04_2013/

Moby

Its 'lose' the election........... not 'loose' and by the way Dan Hodges is known for being a bit of a 'loose' canon within the party. I also note you don't mention Michael Portillo's 'insights' during the same discussion!

paul1964_2

Moby wrote: »

Its 'lose' the election........... not 'loose'

It's "It's" .... not "Its".

Sorry - couldn't resist.

Moby

paul1964 wrote: »

It's "It's" .... not "Its".

Sorry - couldn't resist.

Yes but I was just being lazy...he probably really didn't know!;)

BobQ

I have never been convinced that Milliband is the best leader. Equally Cameron does not convince me. That said neither party will change leader.

Cameron's policies are not working and ordinarily the austerity and the divisiveness that Cameron is inflicting (by emulating his late hero and indeed trying to take out the NHS too) should do for him. But Labour lacks imagination and policy as Hodges said.

To win I think Cameron has to break UKIP. In the same way that the SDP and Liberals made Labour unelectable, UKIP may prevent Cameron succeeding.. Or he has to get lucky and find Labour moves to the left (as Hodges said) intent on appealing to a core vote not the middle ground.

sheffield_lad

Lets see if the unions once again do for Labour. I know that Len Mclusky has apparently had second thoughts on his general strike but a bit more of that or get the weakling to agree to one of there more ridiculous demands or worse put it in his manifesto and all of a sudden Labour may look more left wing than Ryan giggs.

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

To win I think Cameron has to break UKIP.

Europe will create an exit route for Cameron with no need for him to do anything at all.

[Deleted User]

Conrad wrote: »

Life long Labour Man Dan Hodges gives a forensic narrative on why he thinks Labour are heading for defeat.

He highlights things like Labour being identified as the party of welfare, wanting to free PS pay whilst increasing benefits.



5 minutes in;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01s1q2r/This_Week_18_04_2013/

if you look at recent election history you learn a number of important things
the tories missed an open goal in 2010,and to move forward to a majority govt they needed 4% more than last time,something no other party in govt has acheived EVER

the tories have no gone 21 years since they last won an election(and then only narrowly)

of the 4 million votes the lib dems seem to have lost it now looks like 3 million of them will go to labour
the right of uk politics are divided at a time when the left are united

the tories in recent opinion polls are almost at rock bottom(25-28%)the numbers that will always vote for them

ukip will take votes from the tories costing them some marginal seats

add all that up and there can only be one winner

Generali

Moby wrote: »

Its 'lose' the election........... not 'loose' and by the way Dan Hodges is known for being a bit of a 'loose' canon within the party. I also note you don't mention Michael Portillo's 'insights' during the same discussion!

It's funny how often pedantry of this sort contains an error. You seem to like to play the man rather than the ball which is a shame. IMHO it shows the paucity of your argument.

It'll be a sad day for the UK if the Labour party fights the General Election on a platform of welfarism: confiscating from the few to give to the rest. Hopefully the British people are too sophisticated to fall for a con like that.

sjaypink

woodbine wrote: »

of the 4 million votes the lib dems seem to have lost it now looks like 3 million of them will go to labour
the right of uk politics are divided at a time when the left are united

the tories in recent opinion polls are almost at rock bottom(25-28%)the numbers that will always vote for them

ukip will take votes from the tories costing them some marginal seats

add all that up and there can only be one winner

Sounds stupid but I don't think the left are united. I think many are now - well, the left I know - convinced that conventional politics is fucked. Most of my friends are now expressing support for independants. UKIP is not unpopular with traditional older Lab voters.

I think the next election will end up with another split.

Generali

BobQ wrote: »

I have never been convinced that Milliband is the best leader. Equally Cameron does not convince me. That said neither party will change leader.

Cameron's policies are not working and ordinarily the austerity and the divisiveness that Cameron is inflicting (by emulating his late hero and indeed trying to take out the NHS too) should do for him. But Labour lacks imagination and policy as Hodges said.

To win I think Cameron has to break UKIP. In the same way that the SDP and Liberals made Labour unelectable, UKIP may prevent Cameron succeeding.. Or he has to get lucky and find Labour moves to the left (as Hodges said) intent on appealing to a core vote not the middle ground.

Do you honestly believe that Tories would vote UKIP at a General Election and risk getting a Labour Government? It's a ridiculous idea IMO.

They'll do it in the European elections next year and the usual halfwits will get excited about how UKIP has got ~30% of the vote. When it comes to the General election people vote for leaders not to make a point.