Dan Hodges on why Labour will probably loose the election.

Graham_Devon

BobQ wrote: »

Feelings that UKIP are taking votes from Labour are speculation.

Where is the evidence?

Since the UKIP vote has been growing its the Tories vote that has gone down.

It's been handed to you on a plate today

BobQ

padington wrote: »

Looks like they stole lot of votes from all the main parties.

It would appear so. Is there any analysis of this issue?

aliasojo

BobQ wrote: »

I have never been convinced that Milliband is the best leader.

I detest the Tories with every fibre of my being, Cameron and Osbourne I loathe deeply.

However, Milliband is woolly, he doesn't come across as someone who could be astute or able.

Perhaps I'm being unfair but he just doesn't impart a good impression.

I think he needs to step back and let someone with more 'presence' and a better public persona take the reins if Labour have got any hope of coming back.

BobQ

aliasojo wrote: »

I detest the Tories with every fibre of my being, Cameron and Osbourne I loathe deeply.

However, Milliband is woolly, he doesn't come across as someone who could be astute or able.

Perhaps I'm being unfair but he just doesn't impart a good impression.

I think he needs to step back and let someone with more 'presence' and a better public persona take the reins if Labour have got any hope of coming back.

I tend to agree.

Milliband is a clever man but then so was Gordon Brown. But he seems to lack charisma. It may be that over the next year he comes up with some convincing policies but whether he can get the message over is another matter.

That said I cannot see any party having very convincing leaders or policies. Farage is doing well at present but his policies are half baked, even if people are prepared to vote for them.

Graham_Devon

You can ignore Farage. Yes, they are doing well. But not well enough to form a government - not that they even want to. Not unless something massive happens between now and the election.

It's pretty much Cameron against Milliband. Unfortunately for Milliband, Cameron will wipe the floor with him on outright speeches and dealing with the media. You only have to listen to Ed Milliband in that excruciating interview on the radio the other day for that point to be made. He can only speak to labour colleagues and the unions.

Now, that's not to say that's a good thing. Infact, it's a bad thing as we haven't got much from Cameron either.

That's the problem. We'll end up with another coalition, maybe this time a rainbow coalition, which will be extremely bad for the country. Meanwhile, those who pretend to want to serve the country only look to serve themselves and their party.

It may well be that Ed Milliband get's in via the back door. That would be even worse. You'd then have a majority government only there because we are so dissatisfied with the parties. That would be difficult for labour to celebrate as they could take absolutely no credit and would find it difficult in power as the majority didn't even want them there.

padington

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You can ignore Farage. Yes, they are doing well. But not well enough to form a government - not that they even want to. Not unless something massive happens between now and the election.

It's pretty much Cameron against Milliband. Unfortunately for Milliband, Cameron will wipe the floor with him on outright speeches and dealing with the media. You only have to listen to Ed Milliband in that excruciating interview on the radio the other day for that point to be made. He can only speak to labour colleagues and the unions.

Now, that's not to say that's a good thing. Infact, it's a bad thing as we haven't got much from Cameron either.

That's the problem. We'll end up with another coalition, maybe this time a rainbow coalition, which will be extremely bad for the country. Meanwhile, those who pretend to want to serve the country only look to serve themselves and their party.

It may well be that Ed Milliband get's in via the back door. That would be even worse. You'd then have a majority government only there because we are so dissatisfied with the parties. That would be difficult for labour to celebrate as they could take absolutely no credit and would find it difficult in power as the majority didn't even want them there.

Cameron's a massive liability, he reeks of a man with too much privilege and is only a viable proposition in England, he's uselessness when it comes to uniting the shire in Wales and Scotland. The Tories desperately need a working class hero ( or at least a middle class one like thatcher ). As it stands he's not even won a general election once and never will.

Ed will have more voter appeal when he starts to role out his policies, just watch. Farage will go from strength to strength too for exactly the opposite reason. Cameron's a dead man walking if you ask me.

You're right about the possibility of a coalition although I think the Tories are going to be a miner player in anything that gets formed and may go the way of the liberal democrats because of it. I see UKIP and labour becoming the two main parties.

Big call I know but think its on the cards. UKIP's no whip for anything other than independence / against mass immigration is genius.

Moby

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You can ignore Farage. Yes, they are doing well. But not well enough to form a government - not that they even want to. Not unless something massive happens between now and the election.

It's pretty much Cameron against Milliband. Unfortunately for Milliband, Cameron will wipe the floor with him on outright speeches and dealing with the media. You only have to listen to Ed Milliband in that excruciating interview on the radio the other day for that point to be made. He can only speak to labour colleagues and the unions.

Now, that's not to say that's a good thing. Infact, it's a bad thing as we haven't got much from Cameron either.

That's the problem. We'll end up with another coalition, maybe this time a rainbow coalition, which will be extremely bad for the country. Meanwhile, those who pretend to want to serve the country only look to serve themselves and their party.

It may well be that Ed Milliband get's in via the back door. That would be even worse. You'd then have a majority government only there because we are so dissatisfied with the parties. That would be difficult for labour to celebrate as they could take absolutely no credit and would find it difficult in power as the majority didn't even want them there.

Cameron doesn't 'wipe the floor' with Miliband at Question Time though...does he! Miliband did give a bad interview to radio 4 but one swallow doesn't make a summer for the tories. Its hard for Labour because the result was so bad in 2010 and they have to turn it around in only five years......that's a big ask! Cameron started as popular and was seen as 'smooth' and polished. UKIP are doing a good job on him though and presenting him as an out of touch Etonian and David Davis has now got in on the act. He would have been a more attractive leader for the right but elections are won in the middle and the tory hierarchy knew that and went for Cameron. Can he hold them together with UKIP snapping at the heels though. It reminds me of what happened to Labour in the eighties. The SDP hammered them from the right with David Owen, Shirley Williams Roy Jenkins etc and Ben, Hatton etc were at them from the left. Kinnock had to hold the centre and deal with Thatcher. A no win situation. I think the tories love power and are the most pragmatic of parties so come 2015 election many will return to the fold after having had their hissy fit through UKIP....will it be enough though....interesting times!

Generali

BobQ wrote: »

Feelings that UKIP are taking votes from Labour are speculation.

Where is the evidence?

Since the UKIP vote has been growing its the Tories vote that has gone down.

If UKIP are only taking votes from the Tories then Labour are really in the poo! That means that about half the electorate want a Toryish Government.

N1AK

Moby wrote: »

Blair had to act fast...things were desperate at the time. It was a way out. Huge debts resulted...but the hospitals and schools are there now!

Had to? I'm sorry, I must somehow have missed the fact that British healthcare had declined to third world levels in the early 90s :rotfl:

I think the first term of Blairs government was a good thing for the country and think that increased spending on the NHS was a key part of that. However, the utter shambles that was, the PFI deals done to fund so much of the building was a massive mistake.

We could have used private funding more cautiously or even borrowed and built more gradually and then we might not be stuck having to slash the spending on everything else now while we continue to pay obsene rates for decades.

N1AK

angrypirate wrote: »

I think UKIP is also a massive danger to Labour. In recent polls its been shown thta they are taking about 1/3 of their voters from the Tories and about 1/3 from Labour. If David Cameron decides to play ball with them, they could really upset in some marginals as well as some Labour strongholds. I think it would be great to see a Tory / UKIP coalition.

I believe there are a large number of people in the UK who dont like the idea of voting Tory simply because of the image of the Conservatives painted by the press. Dress a bunch of would-be MPs in yellow and purple, have them come up with similar policies to those in blue and all of a sudden they are gaining voters from right across the board. Right now, UKIP policies are more right wing than the current government.

My area now has a UKIP councillor (for shame ) and the vote was effectively UKIP then Cons/Lab within a couple of dozen votes. Conservatives normally win this area with an obsene margin so the UKIP votes definitely came overwhelmingly from previous Tory voters.