Dan Hodges on why Labour will probably loose the election.

Generali

BobQ wrote: »

If they get 15% of the vote you are right that "return to nanny" will prevail. If they were to get 30% not so sure. Does Cameron move to the right? If so what happens to the displeased left of his party. It will be interesting.

I suspect that if UKIP get 30% of the vote they'll be taking substantial numbers of votes from all sides, not just the Tories. That probably gives Labour and Lib Dem more of a problem than the Tories.

The alternative is the Tories get 5% which is not going to happen, not even in a DLW wet dream.

angrypirate

RJP33 wrote: »

I'm not sure, UKIP are a massive danger to the Tories and will split their move to a degree even if a general election is obviously different.

If they can get the majority of UKIP voters on board they have a chance, otherwise I imagine it'll be another hung parliament.

I think UKIP is also a massive danger to Labour. In recent polls its been shown thta they are taking about 1/3 of their voters from the Tories and about 1/3 from Labour. If David Cameron decides to play ball with them, they could really upset in some marginals as well as some Labour strongholds. I think it would be great to see a Tory / UKIP coalition.

I believe there are a large number of people in the UK who dont like the idea of voting Tory simply because of the image of the Conservatives painted by the press. Dress a bunch of would-be MPs in yellow and purple, have them come up with similar policies to those in blue and all of a sudden they are gaining voters from right across the board. Right now, UKIP policies are more right wing than the current government.

Percy1983

I do find it interesting that labour is in theory the working mans party, yet as a working man I wont vote for them due to there reward for having children and watching JK schemes.

padington

Generali wrote: »

Do you honestly believe that Tories would vote UKIP at a General Election and risk getting a Labour Government? It's a ridiculous idea IMO.

They'll do it in the European elections next year and the usual halfwits will get excited about how UKIP has got ~30% of the vote. When it comes to the General election people vote for leaders not to make a point.

I don't think all ukip voters are Tory, I get the feel ( from conversations overheard) they've got a massive working class pull from people who may be on low pay and on benefits who might not usually vote but might rally to this call of arms.

Don't forget immigration massively effected the ability of unskilled working class people to get by doing things like labouring, cleaning and painting and decorating. I think UKIP already has a solid prospective voter base across the classes and a much more energetic supporter base than anyone else.

I've previously been pretty pro immigration because if its a choice of devaluing the pound and cutting pensions, It seems like a good solution of increasing revenue but the amount of Asian taxi drivers who have gone on and on about the stupidly of a country that allows unskilled families to come here and accept a divorce within months from getting the family the right visa and allowing the government to pay for the woman and children whilst the man claims to be single ( but not ) and works on the black market and pays no income tax - I'm beginning to think Labour and the coalition deserve a slap for not placing a skilled level barrier of entry and much longer trial period to weed out the taps from the drains.

We have to have more immigration, we are up against the wall and more people Rowing the boat can only help the journey but everyone has got to be pulling at the oar.

BobQ

Feelings that UKIP are taking votes from Labour are speculation.

Where is the evidence?

Since the UKIP vote has been growing its the Tories vote that has gone down.

Thrugelmir

RJP33 wrote: »

I'm not sure, UKIP are a massive danger to the Tories and will split their move to a degree even if a general election is obviously different.

If they can get the majority of UKIP voters on board they have a chance, otherwise I imagine it'll be another hung parliament.

Yesterdays News.

500 business leaders tell David Cameron to negotiate a better deal with Europe
A group of 500 business leaders have called on the Coalition to negotiate a better deal for Britain with Brussels.

Not all Tories either.........

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10008978/500-business-leaders-tell-David-Cameron-to-negotiate-a-better-deal-with-Europe.html

padington

BobQ wrote: »

Feelings that UKIP are taking votes from Labour are speculation.

Where is the evidence?

Since the UKIP vote has been growing its the Tories vote that has gone down.

Looks like they stole lot of votes from all the main parties.

Thrugelmir

padington wrote: »

Looks like they stole lot of votes from all the main parties.

People do appear to be voicing their opinion to towards the establishment. As the issues are of national interest. Rather than a political view.

Sampong

paul1964 wrote: »

It's "It's" .... not "Its".

Sorry - couldn't resist.

No need to apologyze wots gud fur da goose is good for the gander.

Thrugelmir

Sampong wrote: »

No need to apologyze wots gud fur da goose is good for the gander.

Gooses end up getting stuffed. :eek: