Does this suggest the tide is turning on immigration ?

anqet

grizzly1911 wrote: »

The leaflet is correct though.

They will allow them to come. How many take up the chance nobody knows.

I do find it strange that none of the three main parties will even hazard a guess. Perhaps it is because they don't want to be truthful or they are :eek:

Actually the leaflet is wrong. There aren't 29mil left in those two countries combined. Both countries suffered severely from emigration, aging of population, brain drain, active population drain.

The other thing is - they have freedom of movement already (since 2007). They can live and study here, and be self-employed -- and many of them already do. The only current restriction is this: they can't work as employees unless they can prove that they are highly skilled OR they are in an occupation in demand (e.g. nurses, doctors, some engineers, some IT, etc) OR they get an employer to sponsor a work permit. They can come to the UK without a visa or even a passport, they only need to show an ID, and can stay up to three months.

So my wild guess is that thieves and criminals from those two countries didn't wait for this lifting of the restrictions that will happen come January 2014. They came, left, came back, went to other countries. That's what criminals do.

I believe that UK won't see a big influx -- that's my educated guess. There will be higher numbers, as some of those who are already here working on the black market (read: being exploited by greedy employers) will register and have legal status, start paying taxes etc. And probably some will come, but those will come for work and UK is not their main destination:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9928263/Only-20000-Romanians-want-to-work-in-Britain-says-study-by-Romania.html

And, regarding benefits: research - largely ignored by media and the political discourse - has shown that Eastern Europeans are more likely to be in employment than British and other types of immigrants, and are significantly less likely to ask for benefits.

http://www.voxeu.org/article/fiscal-effects-a8-migration-uk
http://www.esrc.ac.uk/my-esrc/grants/RES-173-27-0208/outputs/read/168e9670-4f8d-45ad-a5cf-438b26ca39cf

UK has a problem with its welfare system and that needs to be solved - long-term reliance on benefits and social housing needs to be reduced and complacent people have to be forced to go back to work after a certain period of time.

Scapegoating Polish, Romanian, Bulgarian or Roma people won't fix UK's broken social system.

Conrad

We've noticed a new trend where the letting agent within my office is now getting new immigrant arrivals on housing benefit. I often hear it said new arrivals are not entitled but I assure you they are - maybe because they have kids?

GlynD

Conrad wrote: »

We've noticed a new trend where the letting agent within my office is now getting new immigrant arrivals on housing benefit. I often hear it said new arrivals are not entitled but I assure you they are - maybe because they have kids?

I believe legislation is now being put forward to stop this. Immigrants will have to live in the UK for two years before being entitled to benefits.

Sampong

GlynD wrote: »

I believe legislation is now being put forward to stop this. Immigrants will have to live in the UK for two years before being entitled to benefits.

Unsure of what legislation that is but EU law will no doubt put a stop to it - specifically under Human Rights.

anqet

UK's benefit problem is not immigrant-related. The tables below are from the reports I posted links to.

And no, immigrants can't claim benefits immediately after they arrive. They can only do it after they worked here for a while*. The only exception is probably child benefit which is universal (well, now depending on income as well). But even for child benefit you need a national insurance number and you don't really get the NI if you're not legally here -- and legally means normally work/study.

*except political asylum cases, I wouldn't know about those.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

We've noticed a new trend where the letting agent within my office is now getting new immigrant arrivals on housing benefit. I often hear it said new arrivals are not entitled but I assure you they are - maybe because they have kids?

Anecdotal example of one coming up. I know of a family of Slovaks with 5 kids that arrived in the UK six months ago and were housed immediately. Baby number six on the way. No work and no intention to either. Compared to being at home they live like kings.

In my job I only come across very hard working immigrants but other family members, in their line of work, only come across lazy scroungers. It's difficult to get a balanced view other than if it's worthwhile to travel across Europe to gain access our benefits system then either a) our benefit system is too generous b) our European partners have inadequate social provision or c) a little of both. I've driven in Slovakia - drive 5 miles out of town and it's like hopping in a time machine and going back in time 100 years.

Either way there's plenty of Daily Mail fodder about that will be used to pour scorn on the government's immigration policy. Politically it's quite interesting some of the measures the government are proposing look very similar to those they've previously suggested are under the remit of EU law.

Debates about immigration just turn into debates about the EU and vice versa. It would be nice to separate them sometimes.

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

...
Debates about immigration just turn into debates about the EU and vice versa. It would be nice to separate them sometimes.

It's no longer an area for debate. It's a political football now. The fight for power come the next election will just be a bunfight.

Every party will try and outdo the other on what will be one of the key election issues. The press will highlight the mess we currently have.

The European dream of social mobility will whither away in years to come.

wotsthat

kabayiri wrote: »

It's no longer an area for debate. It's a political football now. The fight for power come the next election will just be a bunfight.

I know. I was just being fanciful that a rational debate would take place.

That the government have proposed these measures now indicates we're heading into an electioneering phase already as they try and steal some of UKIP's thunder.

I stopped for a coffee at a services on the A14 the other day. Not a single person at the outlet had English as a first language. I don't have an issue with people wanting to make better lives for themselves but do we really need to import labour to transfer a cup of coffee and a cake from one side of a counter to the other?

IzzyFreedman

So can Romainian's and their spouses come to work in the UK?

Sampong

anqet wrote: »

And no, immigrants can't claim benefits immediately after they arrive. They can only do it after they worked here for a while*.

3 months.

If they say they are self employed and seeking work they can claim immediately.