Any other home buyers in NI?

motorguy

A.L.D.A wrote: »

Strangely was talking to an Estate Agent who was complaining that he did not have enough hoses to sell. He had no reason to spin me a yarn as I was not buying.

In this debate people will tend to view it through the lens of their own interests.

Rental returns on many properties again make some sense. Some are indeed buying for that purpose. Some are also buying to repair and sell on. As for the general market, the government is in the run up to the next election so we can expect all manner of strange maneuvering and attempts to encourage growth. On general economic outlook our economy does not compete very well internationally, so little real prospect of export lead growth. For myself I think the tide is turning and has been for some time, but will there be strong recovery? Don't see it unless there is an increase in disposable incomes or high inflation (with wages rising in line). But in truth it is anyone's guess. Long term I am very gloomy regarding the economic prospects of this country, but that is a separate issue.

If anyone is buying they need to try to look at it dispassionately, which is hard to do. A home is more than a vehicle for long term investment, however the long term cost does impinge on life.

I think thats fair comment on things as they stand at the moment.

Your last paragraph in particular is very interesting and very true.

Mistral001

A.L.D.A wrote: »

Strangely was talking to an Estate Agent who was complaining that he did not have enough hoses to sell. He had no reason to spin me a yarn as I was not buying.

If you had a house that is worth 45% of what it was worth just a few years ago and less than when the market was fairly steady (remember those times) would you be keen to put it on the market at the minute?

motorguy

Mistral001 wrote: »

If you had a house that is worth 45% of what it was worth just a few years ago and less than when the market was fairly steady (remember those times) would you be keen to put it on the market at the minute?

Its all relative though. The house you'd be buying would be worth 45% less too.

Beachview_2

motorguy wrote: »

Its all relative though. The house you'd be buying would be worth 45% less too.

Exactly. I've been looking on Property Pal a lot over the last few months and there are people who've put their houses on the market maybe 4 years ago at old prices and still haven't sold. They're probably blaming the recession, yet there are plenty of other houses coming on at sensible prices and they're selling really quickly. If its priced over rateable value in this market, its not going to sell. Some people need to stop clinging on to the old value of their houses if they want to sell, after all the house they're going to buy has fallen in price too, but they don't see that.

A.L.D.A

Mistral001 wrote: »

If you had a house that is worth 45% of what it was worth just a few years ago and less than when the market was fairly steady (remember those times) would you be keen to put it on the market at the minute?

Depends on so many factors. As others have said such things are relative, but agree it is a factor reducing overall availability.

If you are moving to similar sized, and priced house, what is the difference in your situation? (Apart from the significant cost of moving.)

If you were buying a larger house then comparatively you may be better off.

If you bought many years ago, and are down sizing with a view to retiring, major problem.

If you bought at the peak, and are faced with negative equity, again major problems.

The last two groups have to hold steady, and hope that there is some recovery. This will reduce availability, as will the low number of new builds, and insane redevelopment projects wherein you build fewer units than the many affordable houses you demolish.

Unless I had good reason to sell I think I would forgo the cost and disruption. Why bother? Are house prices going to fall further? Possibly, but the likelihood is now probably more in the other direction? (none of us know for sure)

Longer term I am concerned about the overall levels of personal debt, from student loans to mortgages and credit cards. £1.428 trillion. Unless there is a major change and debt is reduced by inflation (with wages increasing), or wages increase ahead of inflation, I can't see how there could be a sustained strong recovery.

There could well be a significant reduction in the percentage owning their own home and an increase in sharing. There does seem to be a trend toward three generations in the one home. Just an observation and no statistical proof. A fair percentage of the work I am currently designing is retirement annexes. Maybe a pure coincidence, but strikes me as strange. Seen nothing like it in 30 years.

motorguy

Beachview wrote: »

Exactly. I've been looking on Property Pal a lot over the last few months and there are people who've put their houses on the market maybe 4 years ago at old prices and still haven't sold. They're probably blaming the recession, yet there are plenty of other houses coming on at sensible prices and they're selling really quickly. If its priced over rateable value in this market, its not going to sell. Some people need to stop clinging on to the old value of their houses if they want to sell, after all the house they're going to buy has fallen in price too, but they don't see that.

I'm wondering how many of those are old adverts from several years ago that just havent been removed?

I think pretty much everyone knows the markets dropped by half, certainly i cant think any estate agent would let someone put a house on these days at its 2007 peak price of say £300,000 when today its maybe only worth £150,000.

qwert_yuiop

A.L.D.A wrote: »

If you bought at the peak, and are faced with negative equity, again major problems

The mortgagor will not allow you to sell if you cannot clear the mortgage - that's when you see who really owns the house.
The best you could do in that situation is overpay your mortgage in the hope you can at least get out of negative equity, allowing you to sell at some later stage.

If your house has halved in value it has to double in value to get back to the old price. Even at a fairly modest (by the standards of the olden days) 4% a year this would take around 16 years. Yeah, some crash wasn't it?

qwert_yuiop

motorguy wrote: »

I'm wondering how many of those are old adverts from several years ago that just havent been removed?
.

Possibly but still plenty of faded signs swinging in the breeze year after year.

Mistral001

A.L.D.A wrote: »

Unless I had good reason to sell I think I would forgo the cost and disruption. Why bother?

Precisely. I cannot think of any situation where putting a house on the market would be something anybody would bother to do - unless they were forced to do it (repossession, divorce, etc.).

Even if you got promotion at work to somewhere in a different part of NI, you might decide to commute rather than move house. If you wanted to move to GB to an area where jobs were available the size of house that you could buy there after you sold your house in NI might put you off to say the least. If you wanted to move to get a bigger house in the same area you might be lucky and get a chain that is less than a year. Ditto if you wanted to move to a smaller house. Who are the people who would want to put their house on the market at the minute?

qwert_yuiop

Mistral001 wrote: »

Precisely. I cannot think of any situation where putting a house on the market would be something anybody would bother to do - unless they were forced to do it (repossession, divorce, etc.).

Even if you got promotion at work to somewhere in a different part of NI, you might decide to commute rather than move house. If you wanted to move to GB to an area where jobs were available the size of house that you could buy there after you sold your house in NI might put you off to say the least. If you wanted to move to get a bigger house in the same area you might be lucky and get a chain that is less than a year. Ditto if you wanted to move to a smaller house. Who are the people who would want to put their house on the market at the minute?

Death, debt and divorce. No choice then.