Any other home buyers in NI?

qwert_yuiop

motorguy wrote: »

Because prices were astronomical and unsustainable with 'normal' mortgages.

Back in the bubble, Dubliners were getting 40 year mortgages.

Did we hit bust before those appeared here? Never heard of any, although I suppose you'd tell nobody.

saverbuyer

motorguy wrote: »

Seems to me you have to clutch at 'straws' to generate an argument when faced with facts.

Please Paul show me a single fact?

How about a report that shows prices dropping from £130000 to £127000?


Anecdotes aren't facts.

motorguy

saverbuyer wrote: »

Please Paul show me a single fact?

How about a report that shows prices dropping from £130000 to £127000?


Anecdotes aren't facts.

And how about the line in the same report that shows they're trending at a static £130,000?

Thats a FACT

saverbuyer

motorguy wrote: »

So just to clarify what you've done

You've quoted the Office of National Statistics as evidence that prices are down.

When presented with their own comment that prices had trended at a static £130,000 for over a year, you then refute the evidence presented by the Office of National Statistics?

Is that not cherry picking what you want out of a paragraph, to try to prove your point - oh actually, thats what you do with me too isnt it? :rotfl:

The quote if from the BBC not ONS:rotfl: Paul.

motorguy

saverbuyer wrote: »

The quote if from the BBC not ONS:rotfl: Paul.

Oh GOD, you're doing it again!!! Heres the full text relating to it from the BBC site

BBC wrote:

"Northern Ireland house prices fell in August and September according to data from the Office of National Statistics.

The figures, which are based on information from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, suggest the average price is now £127,000.

The overall trend in Northern Ireland is flat with prices staying at around £130,000 since the middle of 2012."

You've cherry picked out the middle bit! :rotfl:

Mistral001

The writer of the BBC article must be getting the "trend is flat" from some other source other than the Office of National Statistics/Council of Mortgage Lenders. Prices cannot go down over Aug and Sept and be flat over a year unless they went up over the previous months from Nov to Jul and we all know that that is not the case isn't it?

motorguy

Mistral001 wrote: »

The writer of the BBC article must be getting the "trend is flat" from some other source other than the Office of National Statistics/Council of Mortgage Lenders. Prices cannot go down over Aug and Sept and be flat over a year unless they went up over the previous months from Nov to Jul and we all know that that is not the case isn't it?

The BBC are reporting a news article. They will not "assume" anything - they're giving a summary of the article. They wont "make something up"

Seriously guys - are you really holding up one sentence of a paragraph on a report as FACT because it supports your argument, yet the next sentence of a paragraph on the SAME REPORT you're saying is WRONG because it doesnt support you're argument? :eek:

This is seriously laughable

motorguy

Mistral001 wrote: »

The writer of the BBC article must be getting the "trend is flat" from some other source other than the Office of National Statistics/Council of Mortgage Lenders. Prices cannot go down over Aug and Sept and be flat over a year unless they went up over the previous months from Nov to Jul and we all know that that is not the case isn't it?

You're really dont know how trending works do you?

Seasonally less houses sell in this quarter OR cheaper houses sell better in this quarter OR whatever the "trend" is.

Overall last year the average price was say, £130K. The price may have dropped away in the equivalent quarter last year but the overall average was £130K.

Therefore although the price has dropped the "trend" would suggest that it is a normal dip, as was seen last year and perhaps in previous years.

Lets be seasonal and talk about turkeys, price per lb.

Q3 2012 - £3 per lb
Q4 2012 - £3 per lb
Q1 2013 - £2 per lb
Q2 2013 - £3 per lb
Q3 2013 - £3 per lb
Q4 2013 - £3 per lb
Q1 2014 - £2 per lb

If the Q1 2014 figures are published, then by looking at the previous quarter we could say that prices are down 50%. Now clearly, if you were selling turkeys that could be bad news if that "trend" were to continue. In fact clueless people could use that statistic in isolation to make themselves believe that turkeys are going to be 50p a pound by next christmas.

HOWEVER if we look at the previous year we can see that prices seasonally drop in Q1, and the "trend is flat" over the year, ie, an average price over the year of £2.75 a lb. We could then use that trend to predict that turkey prices will return to their previous price over the course of the year, and thus remain overall at the same price as last year.

IN FACT, if the prices at Q1 2014 were £2.10 per lb, then even though prices were down we would be seeing an upward trend.

tara747

Wow. Lots to catch up on! I've only read to end of page 15 so far, so apologies if I'm repeating what others have said.

motorguy wrote: »

Yes, you've misread. What i'm saying is that as long as people see house prices falling it will not instill any confidence. Where theres no consumer confidence, consumers dont spend.

No it doesnt. If a can of beans is 20p and the price goes up to 21p, there are various benefits to this, however the consumer can still 'afford' that increase.

If people end up paying £10.00 for a can of beans, then thats clearly overspending.

Its nothing to do with 'sensible lending' and everything to do with them preserving their profits and bonuses. Banks dont give a monkeys about individuals.

I know that banks don't give a monkey's. What they were doing before - lending to anyone with a pulse - was going great for them in the good times, but it fairly bit them on the bum in the end.

Also, I would contend that lower house prices are a good thing generally. Why do people see house price rises as 'good' and price rises of any other sort(e.g. beans) as 'bad'??

motorguy wrote: »

Indeed - a lot of people 'cant afford' their own house now through lack of a reasonable deposit or not meeting the lending criteria.

Therefore dropping the value of houses further wont resolve that.

Maybe we need to move away from the mentality that people have 'the right' to own their own house?

Just because some individual cannot raise the finances to buy something does not mean its not 'worth it'.

If i had a £200K ferrari that i was going to sell to someone for £100K and they could only raise £50K of a loan, it doesnt mean the Ferrari is only worth £50K.

House price falls will increase affordability - both through increasing the value of a deposit relative to the value of the house, and through reducing the salary multiple required.

If I have a £30K salary and a £20K deposit, of course affordability improves if an average house costs £100K rather than £200K. Suddenly, I have a 20% deposit and only need to borrow 2.7 times my salary (rather than a 10% deposit and needing to borrow 6 times my salary).

I don't think that anyone has the 'right' to buy a house. The problem is that this mentality was created during the boom, with high LTV mortgages and reckless lending. A decent deposit + evidence of ability to repay *should* be required to buy a house.

tara747

Anyway. Only a week until the new NISRA price report. Should be interesting either way.