Any other home buyers in NI?

motorguy

dsab wrote: »

hat way he was able to sell about 10 houses, mostly off plan, in the same time, and has already buyers lined up for the next batch of houses that haven't even started yet. Same builder is running another Development and has no shortage of buyers there either.

Interesting, as that reinforces what i have been seeing / saying too.

saverbuyer

motorguy wrote: »

Historically, it does always come back round again.

Of interest when you talk about a 13 year cycle, thats 'peak to peak' being one cycle.

If we're now 6.5 years since the last 'peak' of early 2007, then it should be bottoming out round about now....

N.I has never had a housing bubble before.

The only one similar to our in size, EVER, has been Japan.

House prices there are still dropping after 15 years :eek:

Japan of course has high levels of savings and pre-tsunami had a large trade surplus.

We have historically high debt and are the most heavily subsidised region in the U.K. Probably Europe.
The U.K the second most indebted country in the world. :eek:

qwert_yuiop

saverbuyer wrote: »

N.I has never had a housing bubble before.

The only one similar to our in size, EVER, has been Japan.

House prices there are still dropping after 15 years :eek:

Japan of course has high levels of savings and pre-tsunami had a large trade surplus.

We have historically high debt and are the most heavily subsidised region in the U.K. Probably Europe.
The U.K the second most indebted country in the world. :eek:[/QUOTE

So low house prices, full employment and rubbish jobs. It all makes sense, just not very exciting sense

saverbuyer

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

saverbuyer wrote: »

N.I has never had a housing bubble before.

The only one similar to our in size, EVER, has been Japan.

House prices there are still dropping after 15 years :eek:

Japan of course has high levels of savings and pre-tsunami had a large trade surplus.

We have historically high debt and are the most heavily subsidised region in the U.K. Probably Europe.
The U.K the second most indebted country in the world. :eek:[/QUOTE

So low house prices, full employment and rubbish jobs. It all makes sense, just not very exciting sense

Like you say. The New Norm.

motorguy

saverbuyer wrote: »

N.I has never had a housing bubble before.

The only one similar to our in size, EVER, has been Japan.

House prices there are still dropping after 15 years :eek:

Japan of course has high levels of savings and pre-tsunami had a large trade surplus.

We have historically high debt and are the most heavily subsidised region in the U.K. Probably Europe.
The U.K the second most indebted country in the world. :eek:

Japan was different in that they had 75 and 100 year mortgages. Instead of leaving your kids the house, you left them the mortgage. :eek:

Prices are down to what they were pre bubble - say 2005 / 2004 - particularly when you look at RV's etc.

Up to that point there had been a marginal increase every year on prices.

We've seen a massive bubble. House prices have dropped back to what they were pre bubble. I think its a fair bet we'll see pricing stability very soon - if not as we speak - followed by moderate increases.

• Building sites up and running again are showing there is movement
  
• There is movement in the mortgage market with much lower LTV offerings
  
• There is a desire - rightly or wrongly - for people to "own" their own homes, and we have a relatively large rental market at the moment of which a lot would rather buy.
  
• We're out of the recession, so consumer confidence is rising / will rise.

I think all the pointers are there. But hey, i'm just a bloke on a forum

saverbuyer

motorguy wrote: »

Japan was different in that they had 75 and 100 year mortgages. Instead of leaving your kids the house, you left them the mortgage. :eek:

Prices are down to what they were pre bubble - say 2005 / 2004 - particularly when you look at RV's etc.

Up to that point there had been a marginal increase every year on prices.

We've seen a massive bubble. House prices have dropped back to what they were pre bubble. I think its a fair bet we'll see pricing stability very soon - if not as we speak - followed by moderate increases.

• Building sites up and running again are showing there is movement
  
• There is movement in the mortgage market with much lower LTV offerings
  
• There is a desire - rightly or wrongly - for people to "own" their own homes, and we have a relatively large rental market at the moment of which a lot would rather buy.
  
• We're out of the recession, so consumer confidence is rising / will rise.

I think all the pointers are there. But hey, i'm just a bloke on a forum

And why would intergenerational mortgages me cause drops for 15 year?

motorguy

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

So low house prices, full employment and rubbish jobs. It all makes sense, just not very exciting sense

Life isnt, on the whole, very exciting.

There has always been dull jobs - big linen factories of 30-40 years ago spring to mind, shipyards and production based factories.

There are very comfortable livings to be had, and good careers to be had, and a good standard of living to be had, for the right people if they are prepared to work for it, just as there has always been.

Personally, i have always strived to be better, not sat around hoping for everything else to get worse.

motorguy

saverbuyer wrote: »

And why would intergenerational mortgages me cause drops for 15 year?

Because prices were astronomical and unsustainable with 'normal' mortgages.

Mistral001

warmhands.coldheart wrote: »

13 Year Cycles. that's the Magic Number according to someone I know who has an Economics Degree............

About half a generation then if a generation is taken as 25 years. Many cycles actually skip a generation in fact. For example people who have studied the changes made to historic houses over the years have found that there is a major alteration or extension every second generation.

Generations are possibly getting longer so the 17 year gap between property booms in GB (1990 to 2007) might actually still be half generation

saverbuyer

Think it's a good time to link back to Tara post.

Average prices dropped 1.5% :eek:

That's over £3000 saved in 2 months alone.


Now that's some money saving. :money::money:

tara747 wrote: »

Well, well, well...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-24908262

---

NI house prices 'fall in August and September'

Northern Ireland house prices fell in August and September according to data from the Office of National Statistics.
The figures, which are based on information from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, suggest the average price is now £127,000.
The overall trend in Northern Ireland is flat with prices staying at around £130,000 since the middle of 2012.

Another report, from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, suggests prices rose in recent months. :rotfl: