Any other home buyers in NI?

saverbuyer

Can I just say that reports are seasonally adjusted to take account of summer turkeys.

motorguy

tara747 wrote: »

Wow. Lots to catch up on! I've only read to end of page 15 so far, so apologies if I'm repeating what others have said.





I know that banks don't give a monkey's. What they were doing before - lending to anyone with a pulse - was going great for them in the good times, but it fairly bit them on the bum in the end.

Also, I would contend that lower house prices are a good thing generally. Why do people see house price rises as 'good' and price rises of any other sort(e.g. beans) as 'bad'??




House price falls will increase affordability - both through increasing the value of a deposit relative to the value of the house, and through reducing the salary multiple required.

If I have a £30K salary and a £20K deposit, of course affordability improves if an average house costs £100K rather than £200K. Suddenly, I have a 20% deposit and only need to borrow 2.7 times my salary (rather than a 10% deposit and needing to borrow 6 times my salary).

I don't think that anyone has the 'right' to buy a house. The problem is that this mentality was created during the boom, with high LTV mortgages and reckless lending. A decent deposit + evidence of ability to repay *should* be required to buy a house.

Thatcher started it with the "right to buy" back in the 1980s.

Yes, RE: your £200K v £100K example, we've already seen a 55% drop from the peak of 07 so we're in to the realms of a price variance from say, £130K and £127K. Thats not going to amount to a big hill of beans on anyones mortgage or deposit.

I dont think "willing" the market down further is a good thing. I think its contrary to where we're now heading - we're out of recession, unemployment is low, etc, etc.

motorguy

A couple of things i've noticed on here -

If estate agents say prices are going up - then thats in their interest to say so so we should discount what they say.

If surveyors say prices are going up - then thats in their interest to say so so we should discount what they say.

There is a view among several on here that lower house prices will lead to more house sales.

HOWEVER, surely estate agents would want lower house prices as it will lead to more sales - increased prices mean they are less likely to sell houses?

And surely surveyors are paid a flat fee anyway, so again house prices going UP might reduce the amount of sales they get paid for?

Just seems odd to discount two large groups who have first hand evidence of whats happening out there on the basis that its in their interest for prices to go up, when by your own argument lower prices will mean better affordability and more sales, which in theory is actually what those two groups would benefit from? So these two large groups according to your "lower prices means more sales" theory have no vested interest in reporting prices as going up?

It seems you're contradicting yourselves?

motorguy

Found this today -

"Estate agent BTW Shiells shows housing market's on the up as it welcomes seven extra staff"

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/estate-agent-btw-shiells-shows-housing-markets-on-the-up-as-it-welcomes-seven-extra-staff-29745485.html

Clearly this estate agency is that committed to "fooling" us that prices are going up and more houses are selling that they've actually went to the trouble of opening another office and recruiting seven new member of staff!

I have to say this shows real dedication to the charade that house prices are going up, when you guys "know" they're not!

motorguy

saverbuyer wrote: »

Can I just say that reports are seasonally adjusted to take account of summer turkeys.

Thats the most sensible thing you've said on this thread so far!

saverbuyer

motorguy wrote: »

A couple of things i've noticed on here -

If estate agents say prices are going up - then thats in their interest to say so so we should discount what they say.

If surveyors say prices are going up - then thats in their interest to say so so we should discount what they say.

There is a view among several on here that lower house prices will lead to more house sales.

HOWEVER, surely estate agents would want lower house prices as it will lead to more sales - increased prices mean they are less likely to sell houses?

And surely surveyors are paid a flat fee anyway, so again house prices going UP might reduce the amount of sales they get paid for?

Just seems odd to discount two large groups who have first hand evidence of whats happening out there on the basis that its in their interest for prices to go up, when by your own argument lower prices will mean better affordability and more sales, which in theory is actually what those two groups would benefit from? So these two large groups according to your "lower prices means more sales" theory have no vested interest in reporting prices as going up?

It seems you're contradicting yourselves?

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

Old_Git

motorguy wrote: »

Found this today -

"Estate agent BTW Shiells shows housing market's on the up as it welcomes seven extra staff"

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/estate-agent-btw-shiells-shows-housing-markets-on-the-up-as-it-welcomes-seven-extra-staff-29745485.html

Clearly this estate agency is that committed to "fooling" us that prices are going up and more houses are selling that they've actually went to the trouble of opening another office and recruiting seven new member of staff!

I have to say this shows real dedication to the charade that house prices are going up, when you guys "know" they're not!

BTW Shields do a lot off repossessions ,and not just in Belfast .

motorguy

saverbuyer wrote: »

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

Really? So noone said that house prices going up where something these groups had a vested interest in?

Can i perhaps point you to the following -

Post #230, when speaking of Chartered Surveyors...

warmhands.coldheart wrote: »

Don't you just love it when people with a vested interest in something can always pull a report to the contrary of someone else's findings from somewhere....... :rotfl:

and thanked by TARA247

Post #234, when using this "reverse logic" again...

warmhands.coldheart wrote: »

I mean the RICS saying they are going up! Of course they want to say they are going up as it'll make people think housing's on the up again, lets start buying!!! prices still falling means people will hold off so fewer sales, not good for RICS members!!

And thanked by TARA247

Post #248

Mistral001 wrote: »

Yes get a few estate agents into a studio and they will say that there is a recovery in house prices when in fact it there clearly isn't.

Thanked by TARA247 and SAVERBUYER.

motorguy

Old_Git wrote: »

BTW Shields do a lot off repossessions ,and not just in Belfast .

Yeah they're clearly lying.

""Our choice to open our new office in east Belfast is driven by both the demand for property in the area in all price sectors, and to service and build on the current portfolio of resale and new homes that we handle in the area."

Note the word RESALE, not repossessions.

"The east Belfast area has been one of the first areas to show strong signs of recovery and growth in the Northern Ireland market."

Repossessions would not constitute strong signs of recovery and growth in east belfast?

"Throughout 2013, we have seen stability returning to the housing market, and house prices bottoming out, and in some instances showing modest signs of price increases with high demand particularly in the first time buyer and mid-market sectors."

Not phrases you'd associate with the repossession market?

As i said, clearly they're going to a lot of trouble to convince people prices are going UP to shock people in to buying houses.....

Wouldnt it have been easier just to say prices are going down and then according to yourselves, more people would buy?

They could have saved themselves opening up a whole office just for this charade they're performing in the vain hope people might be shocked into buying a house!!

A.L.D.A

motorguy wrote: »

As i said, clearly they're going to a lot of trouble to convince people prices are going UP to shock people in to buying houses.....

Strangely was talking to an Estate Agent who was complaining that he did not have enough hoses to sell. He had no reason to spin me a yarn as I was not buying.

In this debate people will tend to view it through the lens of their own interests.

Rental returns on many properties again make some sense. Some are indeed buying for that purpose. Some are also buying to repair and sell on. As for the general market, the government is in the run up to the next election so we can expect all manner of strange maneuvering and attempts to encourage growth. On general economic outlook our economy does not compete very well internationally, so little real prospect of export lead growth. For myself I think the tide is turning and has been for some time, but will there be strong recovery? Don't see it unless there is an increase in disposable incomes or high inflation (with wages rising in line). But in truth it is anyone's guess. Long term I am very gloomy regarding the economic prospects of this country, but that is a separate issue.

If anyone is buying they need to try to look at it dispassionately, which is hard to do. A home is more than a vehicle for long term investment, however the long term cost does impinge on life.