Cons Lost Election 2015 Already Says Telegraph

DecentLivingWage

Thanks, that's different to my figures for the other Political Betting sites - I'll go check!

chucknorris

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

Thanks, that's different to my figures for the other Political Betting sites - I'll go check!

Look under: all sports/politics/UK/next general election/most seats won

EDIT: What odds have you seen? Make sure the market you are quoting is for 'most seats won' (as opposed to 'overall majority')

The betfair overall majority market is currently approx:

<6/4 labour
>6/4 no overall majority
<9/2 tories

vivatifosi

I think if anything the article in the Telegraph is aimed as much at telegraphing a message to the tories as to what the paper think they are getting wrong as much as an actual suggesion that they will lose. It's more of a kick up the butt and an "oi, get your house in order".

For me, the real unknown of 2015 will be the strength of UKIP. As things stand, I think a very real possibility is that nearer the time we will be questioning whether a coalition of UKIP and the Conservatives will beat one of Labour and the Lib Dems.

ILW

BertieUK wrote: »

Those of us, working class that is, that were born during the last war and a couple of decades after, will certainly agree with what you say because we have had to put up their policies that was directed at them rather than us, were all in it together never really existed, now that comment is a way of saying 'sorry I have not got a clue how to solve it' because of the wave of change these past fifty years that we were unable to control as we did before.

I would suggest that Thatcher opened up more opportunities for your so called "have nots" than any government before.
And I fall into the demographic you quote.

BertieUK

ILW wrote: »

I would suggest that Thatcher opened up more opportunities for your so called "have nots" than any government before.
And I fall into the demographic you quote.

I would tend to agree with you but on the flip side I was running at around an 18% Mortgage I think at that time.

That was a struggle as I remember it.

Rinoa

2010 was not a good election to win.

Whoever won would have had little alternative but to offer austerity for many years, the consequence of which would be unpopularity.

After Labour ran out of spending other peoples money, as they always do, the great british public were only likely to give the new Conservative government 6-12 months to sort it out, after which time they would then blame the new govt. for all our woes rather than the real culprits.

Red Ed is very clever at manipulating the blame on to Cameron, conveniently forgetting he was a high-up in the party that caused the carnage.

Still, the Conservatives are making good progress. You can't say they're courting popularity. They're tackling the problems Labour daren't touch and we'll be better off for that in the long term.

Will they win the next election? Almost certainly not.

But with the Cons. tackling all the welfare problems, Labour will be left with a golden scenario in 2015. Let's hope they don't waste it like they did in 1997.

DecentLivingWage

chucknorris wrote: »

Look under: all sports/politics/UK/next general election/most seats won

EDIT: What odds have you seen? Make sure the market you are quoting is for 'most seats won' (as opposed to 'overall majority')

The betfair overall majority market is currently approx:

<6/4 labour
>6/4 no overall majority
<9/2 tories

Lol - yes , we better define what we mean by 'winning' (as in, last time, no one won - not even the Cons!)

BertieUK

Rinoa wrote: »

Still, the Conservatives are making good progress. You can't say they're courting popularity. They're tackling the problems Labour daren't touch and we'll be better off for that in the long term.

Will they win the next election? Almost certainly not.

But with the Cons. tackling all the welfare problems, Labour will be left with a golden scenario in 2015. Let's hope they don't waste it like they did in 1997.

On a lighter note before the war of words begin, do you think that the Conservatives need to have a leader with the atributes of or similar to the charismatic Boris Johnson?

DecentLivingWage

chucknorris wrote: »

Look under: all sports/politics/UK/next general election/most seats won

EDIT: What odds have you seen? Make sure the market you are quoting is for 'most seats won' (as opposed to 'overall majority')

The betfair overall majority market is currently approx:

<6/4 labour
>6/4 no overall majority
<9/2 tories

Yes, Ive seen 6/4 labour.

PS Much as I'm loving this thread and all the guessing game fun, I'd better drag myself away and get some bits done. But I'll be back this avvie with my research (might have a flutter if some are silly enough to be offering Con win goodies! before they change it)

But my definition would be ,as Labour has a 112 seat majority at the mo (virtual maj for EdM that is via polls) I'll go with seat majority.

Seems like the PaddyPowers of this world are about to make a killing...

PSS

Ordinary man in street punters, JpePublic are bound to bet on a Con win.... theyve only got the BBC to go on and are being spun a line theyre taking. (Hurrah for the millionaire cabinet,arent the Tories great,super job etc etc) Those of us who watch these things and do our own research.... we..e...ll... let's just say... we might all get a smidgeon richer:T

Rinoa

BertieUK wrote: »

On a lighter note before the war of words begin, do you think that the Conservatives need to have a leader with the atributes of or similar to the charismatic Boris Johnson?

It would help in the short term, although Boris may not be seen to be quite so charismatic if he had to make lots of unpopular decisions.

Granted the present govt. is seen as rich, Eton educated elitists out of touch with ordinary folk. A gift for Red Ed at PMQ's who fosters the rich v poor agenda at every opportunity.