Ok then - How do I choose a S&S ISA!

EdInvestor

caliston wrote: »

I'm sure I'm being really stupid here, but can you explain how to get 10 year data? So I've registered and am logged in, and I search for 'Fidelity Moneybuilder UK Index' (a fund someone was asking about the other day, seems fairly popular). I get this page. But that only gives 5 year data, as does the PDF link.

There are 10 year total returns shown in the table when you search for, say, 'UK All Companies' but there doesn't seem to be a breakdown or a little chart (I'm probably missing something obvious). Or was that what you meant?

You need to click on the UK All Companies link under the fund name on the first page. which takes you to this page:


http://www.citywire.co.uk/Funds/Home.aspx?AnalysisCode=9abcd&RankModelID=9&FundID=7015#7015

Scroll down to find the Moneybuilder Index fund (emboldened) at no 117 out of 343 funds. You can compare its performance over each of the periods listed (10,5 etc)

Note that quite a lot of funds don't have a 10 year history. Companies tend to kill off those that fail to perform so they disappear from the charts.Sometimes whole sectors disappear.It's hard to find historical comparisons of With profits and Tech funds these days, as most are closed to new business.

Browntrout_2

stphnstevey wrote: »

My thoughts are now what to do now for next year - do I hang onto those that have under performed? Do I sell or keep those that have overperformed?

I have realised that this is just as basic as large scale gambling!
No one really knows, you can follow the form and place your bets based on past performance and what you think will happen in the future - but at the end of the day you don't control all (or hardly any in fact!) of the variables, so your choices are half chance anyway!

Well done you beat your benchmark of 6.5% by half a percent which is an outperformance of 7.7%

What is it about calendars though?

Just as we go into a new year do we have to review and make changes to our investments, it is a mindset thing really. I suppose as an active investor you should check to see if your chosen funds are worth the management fees, have they out performed their benchmarks? if not why not use an ETF tracker?

Without a real benchmark target for an entire portfolio the temptation might be to always to seek the highest growth. With a realistic benchmark representative index like the FTSE Allshare, S&P500 or MCSI World Index then it is possible to try and understand what he long term really is and how to match or exceed it.

I recommend Ken Fishers - the only three questions that count - this is very detailed in some sections (could be boring) but goes into indexes, benchmarks and portfolio performance in detail. I think I'll re-read it in fact!

It is okay to have some losers in your portfolio as they may take years to come good, as long as your overall portfolio is matching the benchmarks.

Really nothing like gambling as over the long term a well constructed portfolio will provide a higher return than cash.

stphnstevey

After a year of investing via an ISA and several years investing via a pension - to me it is still tantamount to gambling.

I studied the form (past performance).

(I was told that past performance doesn't predict what will happen in the furture - which is partially true, but that only leaves you in a canundrum, what do you base your picking on!)

After choosing the horse I thought would win the race (choose the shares I thought would do well), I but my money and found the best odds I could (lowest share price for my money) The race started. Some fell at the first hurdle, some underperformed and some shot off at pace.

At the end of the race (what ever time period you want to measure) I won some and I lost some.

If you don't like my analogue, then thats why we have freedom of speech!

I do believe that if you study this 'game' (because thats what it is) you could become a bit better than the average. But you would need to become an 'expert' and that would take a large amount of time and effort.

Warren Buffett has done it - but even he spent years of hard study before perfecting his system.

However the time this would take is too much for me

It is however alot less stressfull for me as it's 'paper' gains, rather than physically seeing what your investing.

I think I will remain a tax break investor and plough what I can into bricks and mortor where I can make double what I can make here.

moneyandmountains

It has been interesting to read what gains people have had on their portfolios in 2007. However, as dunstonh points out this is dependent on the the portfolio risk.

Does anyone have example figures for gains due to different risk profiles e.g. Watson-Wyatt, that they can share?

Happy New Year Everyone

mandms

cheerfulcat

stphnstevey wrote: »

After a year of investing via an ISA and several years investing via a pension - to me it is still tantamount to gambling.

TBH, what you have described further down in your post is gambling, not investing.

I studied the form (past performance).

(I was told that past performance doesn't predict what will happen in the furture - which is partially true, but that only leaves you in a canundrum, what do you base your picking on!)

If you mean past performance of share price then it is entirely true that it has no predictive power ( unless you use TA, supposedly - I don't, but its proponents claim success ). How you choose your shares is a personal thing but generally speaking most people have some sort of filter(s) in place to arrive at a shortlist.

If you don't like my analogue, then thats why we have freedom of speech!

But your analogy is faulty...the nearest people on the race track to an investor are not the punters but the owners of the horses!

Browntrout_2

" Investment is the art of forecasting the yield on assets over the life of the asset. Speculation is the activity of forecasting the psychology of the market"

J.M. Keynes, 'The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money'


" An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."

Benjamin Graham, ' The Intelligent Investor'.


I am still learning about investing, I find these two quotes, particularly Keynes, very helpful when trying to focus my mind away form a natural tendency to gamble.

Happy New Year to all moneysavingexperts

stphnstevey

I like these better:


"Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little." ---Fred Schwed Jr. in Where Are The Customer’s Yachts?

"Games of chance must be distinguished from games in which skill makes a difference. The principles that work in roulette, dice, and slot machines are identical, but they explain only part of what is involved in poker, betting on the horses, and backgammon. With one group of games the outcome is determined by fate; with the other group, choice comes into play. The odds--the probability of winning--are all you need to know for betting in a game of chance, but you need far more information to predict who will win and who will lose when the outcome depends on skill as well as luck. There are cardplayers and racetrack bettors who are genuine professionals, but no one makes a successful profession out of Craps. Many observes consider the stock market itself little more than a gambling casino . . . Cards, coins, dice, and roulette wheels have no memory." ---Peter Bernstein in Against the Gods

"Outright speculation is neither illegal, immoral, nor (for most people) fattening to the pocketbook . . .There is intelligent speculation as there is intelligent investing. But there are many ways in which speculation may be unintelligent. Of these the foremost are: (1) speculating when you think you are investing; (2) speculating seriously instead of as a pastime, when you lack proper knowledge and skill for it; and (3) risking more money in speculation than you can afford to lose. . . everyone who buys a so-called "hot" common-stock issue, or makes a purchase in any way similar thereto, is either speculating or gambling. Speculation is always fascinating, and it can be a lot of fun while you are ahead of the game. If you want to try your luck, put aside a portion--the smaller the better--of your capital in a separate fund for this purpose. Never add more money to this account just because the market has gone up and profits are rolling in. (That's the time to think of taking money out of your speculative funds). Never mingle your speculative and investment operations in the same account, nor in any part of your thinking." ---Benjamin Graham in The Intelligent Investor

cagey76

investing v gambling

you'll find that some gamblers spend a lot more time making their picks, and for a lot better reasons !

For me as a newbie investor, its going to be about choosing the right areas in which to invest and then go with it.

I am sure that for both gambling and investing you can dramatically improve your chances of success by the amount of effort you are prepared to put in.

debbie42

Bumpetty bump.

Aegis

Bumping again. Had to go about 9 pages to find this great resource for someone!