Nationwide aug: + 1.3%

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Hey Brit, time to change your signature.....

homelessskilledworker

DpchMd wrote: »

I thought you had to go to work?

Did they send you home 'cos you wouldn't stop crying?

Why would I want to cry, while you are clinging to a hope/prayer, or just blind stupidity(thats my bet) I am looking at FACTS.

And here are the facts, which of course in some areas are open to interpretation....

We had a property boom in the first/middle part of the 2000's, thats a fact, probably around 2007 we hit the peak and a downward cycle started. Now looking at the data we have today(04/09/12), five years on we have had nominal falls of anywhere between 12% to 18%, now if you assume that inflation has probably averaged 3% a year since 2007, we are now probably looking at falls between 20% to 30% in real terms. I am using the data from what I think are the three main indicies that most look at, Halifax, Nationwide, LR.

Now since 2007 we have had a period of slight recovery in 2009 to then level off(slight fall in my eyes, but there you go). Now, as much as I concede that falls stopped around 2009 that still does not alter the fact that we are still way down on nominal and real prices from 2007.

Also the interpretaion I mentioned is needed around that 2009 point, to me it is the classic dead cat bounce, but hey ho, we will see.

So the facts say we are still in a downward trend, anyone that is looking at a housing trend and knows what they are talking about will know that even the worse/best trend would have shown endless spikes going the opposite way here and there.


Prices boomed untill 2007, it ended. Since 2007 prices have fallen and not recovered, thats is a downward trend my son:)

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

You'd have seen your mortgage and monthly payment eroded by inflation.

How would the mortgage payment have eroded due to inflation. Were currently in a period of miniscule wage inflation.

With inflation generally being taped onto living costs, I don't think anyone would find it easier in general today compared to 2010 to service their mortgage thanks to simple inflation.

homelessskilledworker

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How would the mortgage payment have eroded due to inflation. Were currently in a period of miniscule wage inflation.

With inflation generally being taped onto living costs, I don't think anyone would find it easier in general today compared to 2010 to service their mortgage thanks to simple inflation.

I really was going to say the same thing, but it really is pointless talking to this guy:)
It is just a constant black is white argument everytime.

I am quite surprised given that I posted nominal falls have been around 15% and real probably 25% and that nobody has yet come back with "yeah but No but, where I live in Little Snoring in the SE prices have rocketed, so you are wrong, Nahh Nahh!!"

robmatic

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How would the mortgage payment have eroded due to inflation. Were currently in a period of miniscule wage inflation.

With inflation generally being taped onto living costs, I don't think anyone would find it easier in general today compared to 2010 to service their mortgage thanks to simple inflation.

The fact remains that wages are increasing, even if at lower levels than previously. And even if you think wages are static (when in general they're not) if the RPI/CPI indices are increasing and your mortgage principal remains the same, then that mortgage principal is shrinking in relative terms. Your disposable income might be worth less but that's a side issue.

homelessskilledworker

robmatic wrote: »

The fact remains that wages are increasing, even if at lower levels than previously. And even if you think wages are static (when in general they're not) if the RPI/CPI indices are increasing and your mortgage principal remains the same, then that mortgage principal is shrinking in relative terms. Your disposable income might be worth less but that's a side issue.

Another way of looking at, and this is the way I look at it..

The nominal prices today are the same as they were around 2005(ish). Back then EVERYONE(that worked or was in business that is) was getting decent contracts, you had to turn work away, everyone paid on time, you was putting estimates forward and adding on top of that and still getting the work, there was money everywhere and it was easy to get your hands on it.

So back to 2012, I know you will get posters on here saying the economy has never been better, but the actual reality is that it is nothing like those days. All thats happening now is that wannbe sellers are holding out the best they can hoping that it will go back to the crazy days of 2005, no chance!!

If the spending ways and the economy get back to anything like 2005 then I will hold my hands up and say PROPERTY PRICE CRASH CANCELLED.

ukcarper

Graham_Devon wrote: »

How would the mortgage payment have eroded due to inflation. Were currently in a period of miniscule wage inflation.

With inflation generally being taped onto living costs, I don't think anyone would find it easier in general today compared to 2010 to service their mortgage thanks to simple inflation.

　

Say someone was earning £20k in 2010 and they had a 2% rise each year. They would be earning £20,808 now. In 2010 they would have taken home £15,724 now they would be taking home £16,681 a rise of 6% RPI over that period about 8% CPI about 7%.

So if your mortgage was 25% of your take home pay and has stayed the same there is a good chance you are better off.

　

　

moneyinmypocket

We have had stagnation with prices remaining stable and wages flat lining.

DpchMd

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Why would I want to cry, while you are clinging to a hope/prayer, or just blind stupidity(thats my bet) I am looking at FACTS.

And here are the facts, which of course in some areas are open to interpretation....

We had a property boom in the first/middle part of the 2000's, thats a fact, probably around 2007 we hit the peak and a downward cycle started. Now looking at the data we have today(04/09/12), five years on we have had nominal falls of anywhere between 12% to 18%, now if you assume that inflation has probably averaged 3% a year since 2007, we are now probably looking at falls between 20% to 30% in real terms. I am using the data from what I think are the three main indicies that most look at, Halifax, Nationwide, LR.

Now since 2007 we have had a period of slight recovery in 2009 to then level off(slight fall in my eyes, but there you go). Now, as much as I concede that falls stopped around 2009 that still does not alter the fact that we are still way down on nominal and real prices from 2007.

Also the interpretaion I mentioned is needed around that 2009 point, to me it is the classic dead cat bounce, but hey ho, we will see.

So the facts say we are still in a downward trend, anyone that is looking at a housing trend and knows what they are talking about will know that even the worse/best trend would have shown endless spikes going the opposite way here and there.


Prices boomed untill 2007, it ended. Since 2007 prices have fallen and not recovered, thats is a downward trend my son:)

Mate everything's gonna be alright, no need to cry about it.

Graham_Devon

ukcarper wrote: »

　

Say someone was earning £20k in 2010 and they had a 2% rise each year. They would be earning £20,808 now. In 2010 they would have taken home £15,724 now they would be taking home £16,681 a rise of 6% RPI over that period about 8% CPI about 7%.

So if your mortgage was 25% of your take home pay and has stayed the same there is a good chance you are better off. It's well documented that the cost of everything else has risen in the same period.

　

　

Yes, if you ignore every single price rise that's happened in the same period, you are better off.

This forum just get's worse and worse with the almost blatant rose tinted view of viewing the data however you want to, so long as it makes housing look a good bet.