Preparedness for when

maryb

It's hard to disentangle what the real concerns are from the overhyped reporting. One article I read said that the plan was to shut down the New York subway if there were sustained winds in excess of 39mph - I mean that's a stiff breeze, hardly a hurricane. I'm getting the impression that it's storm surges they are really worried about if it coincides with a high tide. (I seem to remember reading it was high tides combined with a storm that caused the devastation on the East Coast in 1953)

Praying that it turns out to be well short of their worst fears

2tonsils

We were staying on the Gulf coast in America when Hurricane Wilma hit us.....they evacuated all the tourists except us (as we travelled independently) so we were left alone on the third floor of a block of flats with only the manager left in the place. It was mostly hype...no storm surge, just heavy rain and winds. I have seen much worse at home in the storms we get straight from the sea. However, nothing was open so we had to live on supplies we got in before the storm for 36 hours and we weren't allowed out of the room.

My OH was really not impressed and slept through most of it while I kept watch out of the window lol. The emergency services do not work at all during the time the storm is raging, they only come out once its over. The local police and firemen were having a party at a local bar and invited us to join them for the duration of the hurricane.....I pointed out the bar was at sea level just over the road from the sea and behind the inland waterway, and I would be safer on the third floor!

We had fabulous red sky sunrises for a whole week after that and the weather was beautiful.

Dippypud

GreyQueen wrote: »

I believe that satellite phones are a completely different thing to mobile phones (or cells, for Americans). They're useful where there are no mobile networks. I can recall reading about how US intelligence hacked Osama's satellite phone back in the day, but kept very quiet about it as it was more useful to keep listening in, rather than do something which would reveal that they'd cracked it.

This was when he was apparently in caves in the mountains of Afghanistan.

Sooo, I'm assuming they're planning to use satellite links if the terrestrial communications systems are down. D'you remember that in the 7/7 London bombings the mobile networks overloaded and were shut down and the emergency services were discovered to have a communications system not fit-for-purpose and that people who died might have lived if it had been better? Lots of emergency planning by the authorities might be found not to be up to scratch when it is tested in the field. Lets hope not.

Having watched with horror the complete pig's breakfast which the US emergency authorities made of Hurriacane Katrina in New Orleans, I wouldn't personally bet my safety on being helped in a timely manner by the emergency services.

Have a looky here ...gives the differences ...

http://www.globalcomsatphone.com/satellite/telephones/cell_satellite.html

GreyQueen

I'm reading the Guardian Online, a reasonably-sensible resource, IMO.

Seems to be that the storm surge may come as high as 6-11 feet at NYC and 4-8 feet elsewhere. There is also the full moon on Monday and hurricane predicted to make landfall late Mon/ early Tues.

I guess the greatest risk is the combination of the high tides+the storm surge+the full moon.

About 30 years ago I was privileged to listen to the reminisences of some elderly ladies who'd been young wives in a town badly-flooded by the North Sea Surge of 1953. This was the disaster which triggered the start of the building of the Thames Barrier. It was fascinating and horrific.

Ultimately, even the experts are operating on best-guesses at this time. Looking at the map of NYC you can see that they're evacuating the lowest-lying areas and they'd be villified if they did anything different.

We shall have to watch and wait and hope that no one has their home or their business premises ruined and that everyone stays safe and well during these scary times.

ETA Cheers, Dippypud. I try to end each day slightly-more-knowledgeable than I awakened and I have the skinny on sat phones and have eaten home-made waffles for the first time ever. It's all good.

2tonsils

Yes, I get very confused by the wind speeds..it doesn't help that sometimes they are given in kilometers per hour and sometimes miles per hour. I did like the scale on this link though..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

Our wind here was forecast to be force 7 last night but judging by the number of branches and whole trees on the road it must have been gusting with more force than that.

Taking my photos in on Tues to the insurance to claim on the damage to the balcony. It's worth claiming as its so expensive to get anything fixed here. Good news is we are going back to sunshine on Thursday.

2tonsils

My friend who runs a weather prediction site just posted this, he thinks many of the sites have the wrong models for where the hurricane is , he posted this (sorry the link won't work on here)

SANDY OFF NOAA'S COURSE ...

This satellite image depicts the forecast plots from NOAA (In Red). The TWS-TFM is the Green Plot ... This is what I've been saying that would need to be watched ... Sandy will be further north than NOAA currently has. Sandy is off the red line course and following the TWS-TFM ...

What does it mean? All news stations, including The Weather Channel have the track wrong. Sandy will hit further north, and this plot brings it right INTO New York City with the strongest surge and effects.

This is why I've been trying to warn that just because the news stations had NYC south of the landfall point (NOAA was in Delaware Yesterday!) ... does not mean that is where it will hit or you are out of danger.

Later this evening I will have a slew of maps on here to read with a full discussion. But Sandy will hit north of NOAA's position, very close to the position on the video forecast of the TWS-TFM ...

Remember the TWS-TFM is the in-house weather model here developed at The Weather Space.com. It learns overtime how a hurricane moves and performs ... then it spins it ahead and gives a track based off the last 24, 48, and even 72 hours of movement and verification.

Landfall point is going to be between N. NJ and Long Island ... NYC at the center ...

This is today's video forecast of the track - https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=546756935339342

If you are still on the fence about leaving NYC or any low lying areas from NJ to Maine, do not hesitate ... affects, including Hurricane force winds will hit the coast of MA and Maine as well !

It must be terrifying not knowing till the last minute....

Dippypud

GreyQueen wrote: »

I'm reading the Guardian Online, a reasonably-sensible resource, IMO.

Seems to be that the storm surge may come as high as 6-11 feet at NYC and 4-8 feet elsewhere. There is also the full moon on Monday and hurricane predicted to make landfall late Mon/ early Tues.

I guess the greatest risk is the combination of the high tides+the storm surge+the full moon.

About 30 years ago I was privileged to listen to the reminisences of some elderly ladies who'd been young wives in a town badly-flooded by the North Sea Surge of 1953. This was the disaster which triggered the start of the building of the Thames Barrier. It was fascinating and horrific.

Ultimately, even the experts are operating on best-guesses at this time. Looking at the map of NYC you can see that they're evacuating the lowest-lying areas and they'd be villified if they did anything different.

We shall have to watch and wait and hope that no one has their home or their business premises ruined and that everyone stays safe and well during these scary times.

ETA Cheers, Dippypud. I try to end each day slightly-more-knowledgeable than I awakened and I have the skinny on sat phones and have eaten home-made waffles for the first time ever. It's all good.

I live very near the the Barrier ...my MIL lived through the 1953 flood ...

and yes ...we all take small steps along the knowlege highway ...
small steps ...on a long journey ...:cool:

wondercollie

Evening all. I live around 1800 km from the Queen Charlotte Islands where the quake was. We used to live south of the islands on Vancouver Island. The boys were amazed that they had earthquake drills at school and came home with demands to start a quake box. Now that we are inland in Alberta, we joke that in about 50 years we will have beachfront property! Mr. WC is on standby for disaster call outs.

New York has closed the subway and is evacuating the "most vulnerable".

Rant of the day. I grew up with the Queen Charlotte Islands. Some time in the '90s the BC government went uber PC and now calls them Haida Gwaii, the tribal name for the islands. Number one son's fiancee is one quarter Haida and her entire family calls them "the Charlottes". Don't laugh that 25% Haida status is pretty handy, if she gets her paperwork sorted out she has free post secondary education whenever she wants it and can claim sales tax exempt status on a boatload of stuff. End of rant.

It's -3 and snowing. Im not looking forard to tomorrows drive to work. But I've made a huge pot of goulash and umplings which should last a day or two.

Snowtyres are now on all vehicles. Done at home so no line ups at the mechanics and a boatload of cash saved.

Caterina

GreyQueen wrote: »

... I was in the cave where whathisface (blanked on name, ME moment, Greek legendary dude who went into Hades to retrieve the missus, told not to look back, did, lost missus for the second time, someone must know the legend?)

ETA Got it; Orpheus and Eurydice.

For a moment I thought you were talking about Hades the dude who kidnapped Persephone, that is his name. Long story short: Her mum had told her not to accept any food from him but she accepted pomegranate so she got stuck down there with him. Mum Demeter who is the Goddess of earth and Nature was so distraught that she made the earth into a cold frozen place. So Zeus twho was her brother, to save the people of the earth, he ordered Hades, also a sibling, to let her have half the time down there and the other half on the surface. this is why we have the seasons. While Persephone is up with her mum, we have Spring and Summer. The rest of the time, she is down with Hades, her mum is sad and we have Autumn and winter.

But of course you did not mean this story, but your mention of Hades reminded me of it, especially as we are approaching the feast of Samhain!

lyrolee

Hi,

I lurk a lot but wanted to share for those who may be interested in the storm in the US.


Live cams

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/statueofliberty/?cam=liberty_pano Staue of liberty web cam (you can hear the wind already)

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/ Times square web cam.

http://www.nyharborwebcam.com/ New York Harbour web cam.


http://www.visitob.com/webcams/sea-ranch-kill-devil-hills/
TSHTF already here (the above cam) and the storm hasn't made land yet.