Preparedness for when

Frugalsod

elaine241 wrote: »

Hello all
Just popping back in to say I have one of the muck forks frugalsod linked to. Its embarrassing as I seem to be outed with my preps even though I didnt know I had this particular weapon!! Yes mine is pink too!!

Yes, but you could say it was part of a Barbie the farmer fancy dress costume set. Sorry if you feel we outed you as a prepper but you kind of did that yourself by posting in this thread. :T

Frugalsod

http://www.treehugger.com/organic-beauty/diy-beauty-recipes-use-only-2-ingredients.html

Here are a range of DIY beauty recipes that can be used old school or as part of a SHTF scenario. Either way they could save you money and the environment at the same time. Best of all you could use the savings to do other preps.

fuddle

I use about 75% of those recipes in general life without a SHTF scenario. I see it as a treat to my little self but when the chips are down they don't come to the surface. When the chips are down my soap and shampoo are all I use. I have to say that really the ingredients don't factor in the things I stock overly for SHTF but I do stock soap and shampoo though.

We're just all different. Egg white allowed to dry on the face is an super skin tightening mask with the egg yolk being a smashing hair conditioner... but in a SHTF scenario my eggs would be much more precious than for my face or my hair.

I agree though, having a knowledge about how to use natural ingredients in place of generic bought ones is handy.

thriftwizard

NOT trying to scare anyone: Headed for another crash?

Frugalsod

thriftwizard wrote: »

NOT trying to scare anyone: Headed for another crash?

A crash is increasingly likely.

The main thrust of the article is that if governments are to run surpluses then the private sector needs to run deficits. Now the private sector is made up of households and companies. So the split between each depends on relative economic power. Since most families have not had anything like a real increase in wages since 2003 this means that households will be forced to take on more debt as they do not have the economic power to get higher wages. Now what this really means is that households will probably have to cut back significantly the harder the government tries to cut its deficit. This is basically what happened in Greece. Then as households cut back businesses will have to cut back as well this will mean higher unemployment and the higher benefits bill will slow the deficit cutting policy.

So imagine our government achieves its 2% surplus. Now that means that households will need to run 2% deficits every year ie through increased borrowing but with wages stagnant would banks agree to this, and would most sensible people do this if they realised this is not a short term thing but permanent? No they would simply cut spending so that they were running a surplus as well. So what this means in reality is that 2% a year is simply evaporating out of the economy. That will mean lower wages the next year and a repeat of the crisis.

Now another way out of the problem is to export to other countries and use the trade surplus to fund the government surplus in effect. This is what Germany has done. The problem is that they need places to export to. If everyone has exactly the same model then no one has anyone to sell their exports to, since global exports must equal global imports. Normally exchange rates balance this out but Germany is effectively taking everyone else in the EU exports and they are unable to trade their way out of a crisis. The other solution is fiscal transfers within the EU from Germany to Greece but that is politically unacceptable in Germany so eventually the crisis will continue to build up pressure and destroy the EU and the Eurozone. It could take many years.

Also without exports the UK will eventually become a low wage nation competing with third world nations for jobs. This will take generations but the Chinese did not become rich overnight. Those in government do not think it will happen in their parliament or that it will impact them so it is an irrelevance for them. It does not help when their models do not count debt as a problem anyway.

GreyQueen

There will be unexpected fallout for the whole economy of tax credit cuts. Even if they end up less vicious than presently proposed, the will be depriving households of the ability to spend. Lower-income households will be spending most of their income, so anything which reduces the income of the lowest deciles is going to be felt like an Arctic blast across most of the economy.

If you wander around with your eyes open and your brain engaged, you will notice that most economic activity is by no means essential to life. If people are spending more and more of their static or declining income on funding the essentials - very much my position btw - there will be less to spend on inessentials. Which is most of the economy.

I already have zero consumption of printed media such as newspapers or magazines, for example. I buy a new book, as opposed to a new-to-me book, about once every couple of years. Clothes and household requisties are pre-loved. I choose not to spend the thick end of a tenner going to the cinema, but will wait for a DVD release and then rent it or buy it <£2.

sb44

Besides stocking up on food and water, people are often advised to buy gold and silver.

Gold is way out of a lot of peoples reach but silver is a lot cheaper for a 1oz coin and I read that silver is going to go sky high if the economy collapses.

I see that silver coins of the same weight and silver content differ in price.

At the end of the day isn't a 1oz going to be worth the same regardless of which country it came from?

GreyQueen

sb44 wrote: »

Besides stocking up on food and water, people are often advised to buy gold and silver.

Gold is way out of a lot of peoples reach but silver is a lot cheaper for a 1oz coin and I read that silver is going to go sky high if the economy collapses.

I see that silver coins of the same weight and silver content differ in price.

At the end of the day isn't a 1oz going to be worth the same regardless of which country it came from?

An issue when buying things like this with a view to eventual re-sale, is recognisability to prospective purchasers. A silver Britannia may well be more acceptable to a UK purchaser than something from Fiji, for example. And a US market might find a silver Eagle or a Canadian Maple Leaf more familiar then the Britannias. An Austrian might like one of their Philharmonics.

But yes, a troy ounce of fine silver is a troy ounce of fine silver, and will only sell for the going rate for the same, regardless of the format. Of course, if the purchaser is some backstreet dealer who has never seen that particular format, they might not trust that it is truly fine silver, and might not want to buy it.

The same would also apply to gold bullion coins, but at a much higher price point, of course. Prices can go up, down or sideways for silver and gold and there are no guarantees, so never purchase unless you are comfortable with risking all those eventualities.

nuatha

sb44 wrote: »

Besides stocking up on food and water, people are often advised to buy gold and silver.

Gold is way out of a lot of peoples reach but silver is a lot cheaper for a 1oz coin and I read that silver is going to go sky high if the economy collapses.

I see that silver coins of the same weight and silver content differ in price.

At the end of the day isn't a 1oz going to be worth the same regardless of which country it came from?

Silver is currently just over £10 per ounce as bullion. Some coins are regarded as more collectable than others this is reflected in the current selling prices, but if you're selling as bullion then its all the same price at a given purity. I generally have a lb or so as jewellery making supplies in the form of sterling silver wires and sheets but don't particularly see it as a hedge against the brown stuff. Depending on just how the SHTF it could rise in price or be unsaleable, edibles on the other hand remain edible even if they aren't tradeable. (Though I'm hoping somebody will be daft enough to trade food for silver jewellery or even just bullion).

Easily transportable wealth could be a godsend, if you have to move countries.

Frugalsod

sb44 wrote: »

Besides stocking up on food and water, people are often advised to buy gold and silver.

Gold is way out of a lot of peoples reach but silver is a lot cheaper for a 1oz coin and I read that silver is going to go sky high if the economy collapses.

I see that silver coins of the same weight and silver content differ in price.

At the end of the day isn't a 1oz going to be worth the same regardless of which country it came from?

The problem is that if it is not a UK coin then it will be subject to VAT and capital gains tax. The Gold Sovereign is subject to VAT but not capital gains tax. Which is very handy in if you had to spend it, then no more CGT on top of any sales tax on the goods that you just bought.

Ultimately so many people are promoting gold and silver as a hedge against disaster but beware. This is looking more like a Ponzi scheme that needs to recruit new suckers to the game. The same applies to the idea of a gold backed currency. When this was the case there was no house price bubbles and prices of homes would be practically fixed rising only in line with wages. So would you want to borrow £1 million to buy a house if there was no house price appreciation. Secondly depressions were much more frequent when we had a fully gold backed currency. Plus governments will drop the link as soon as they need to devalue which is why they confiscated gold in the US in 1930's. Gold backed currencies are deflationary and lack the flexibility of fiat currencies to deal with crises.

I do see deflation as a problem, but that is why I am concentrating on clearing debts as fast as I can. If my income is falling in real terms then debts become harder and harder to repay as real incomes are falling. This is the basic problem that Greece is in now, and why as much as 50% of all loans are now no longer performing. Once debt free I will be able to cope with a fall in income of around 70% far more than any other case of deflation ever.

Remember what are their motives for telling you this? It might be gold dealers touting for business or investment managers doing the same.