Greece...

melanzana

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'd agree with some of that.

Greece did, though, have an EU official imposed on them for some time in order to sort many of these issues. He couldn't sort them either.

We simply have a case of politics intertwined with economics. The politics ensures Greece were invited into the EU and the Euro. The economics weren't ignored, but instead, fraudulent practices ensured that the economics worked.

The politics knew all along of all the problems you mention, but believed they could change Greece. But the EU is made up of very diverse nations. You can't change a country to conform with what's see as correct by a fierecly capitalist country and regime.

The politics and economics simply aren't working.

And never will.

The capitalists are imploding. It's going to get nasty. The little man (In my very humble opinion) is winning out here. This isn't an argument for socialism, but this capitalist experient has fundementally failed.

Wasn't it Latvia that cut, cut, cut, and turned things around? And they don't even have sunny beaches and loads of heritage either for a Tourism Economy. They had cojones to do it, and they are ok now.

Same in Ireland, Public Sector was hit hard. Had to be. No strikes or anything.

But I agree with you. The bondholders are running all our economies now. Not our Governments. They are terrified of them.

I_have_spoken

Must be better than 50:50 we're looking at a domino-collapse as the lenders to Greece like CNP, Groupama, Comerzbank, Generali, BNP Paribas, FMS etc. face bad-debts many, many €Bs beyond any 'stress tests' organised by the EU.

Once one European bank collapses, then they'll go down like skittles as European central banks and the IMF are shown to have been playing fast and loose with asset reserves, leasing out gold to suppress the price.

The only smart move is to run, not walk, to your nearest bullion dealer and buy physical gold they may have left.

Graham_Devon

melanzana wrote: »

Wasn't it Latvia that cut, cut, cut, and turned things around? And they don't even have sunny beaches and loads of heritage either for a Tourism Economy. They had cojones to do it, and they are ok now.

Possibly, but it's the size of the debt now. Cutting to the core won't sort it out.

You can cut, sure, but there has to be an achieveable goal at the end of the cuts.

With Greece, there is no achieveable goal for the Greek people. The size of the debts means no matter what cuts they make, they still won't be able to afford the debts they have, let alone the further debt if they take on the packages offered. If they do accept the package, more will be needed in just 6 months time.

I'm not sure the referendum will actually happen now. Liklihood is that events will take over and remove the need for the referendum. However, it would be up to the greek people (so long as the EU and IMF are still willing) to either accept this as a comprimise for staying within the EU and holding onto the Euro currency.

But the EU and IMF also have to accept that this issue will roll on and on and will require, over time, a debt amnesty and possibly a fundemental re-think on the "project".

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The capitalists are imploding. It's going to get nasty. The little man (In my very humble opinion) is winning out here. This isn't an argument for socialism, but this capitalist experient has fundementally failed.

It's actually a failure of socialism.

In the UK we know that a single currency requires tha transfer of funds around the currency union. Of course being a land of ingrates the net beneficiaries (everywhere outside the SE) try to deny such transfers take place.

Forget the rights and wrongs. No money - no honey.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

It's actually a failure of socialism.

Ahh yes, the well known socialist state of the EU, printing trillions of Euros to shore up the banks :undecided

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Ahh yes, the well known socialist state of the EU, printing trillions of Euros to shore up the banks :undecided

A single currency requires transfers across the union. No-one gives it a second thought in the UK or, for that matter, in the USA although because of the distances involved some flag waving is required to ensure a nationalistic fervour in the USA when it suits.

melanzana

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm not sure the referendum will actually happen now. Liklihood is that events will take over and remove the need for the referendum. However, it would be up to the greek people (so long as the EU and IMF are still willing) to either accept this as a comprimise for staying within the EU and holding onto the Euro currency.

But the EU and IMF also have to accept that this issue will roll on and on and will require, over time, a debt amnesty and possibly a fundemental re-think on the "project".

I may be wrong, but I cannot see Angela Merkel allowing a Grexit. I could be wrong, but she is on the ball, and will see what all this might mean.

Despite the fact that she is not highly regarded in Greece that is!

It's all about survival and political nous.

But I could be totally wrong about that too! Who knows, we can only speculate.

But my money is on the fact that Greece will be saved.

Graham_Devon

The Greek banks are to be closed for the entire week :shocked:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/28/greece-crisis-deepens-banks-close-a-week-weekend-shook-euro

Generali

I_have_spoken wrote: »

Must be better than 50:50 we're looking at a domino-collapse as the lenders to Greece like CNP, Groupama, Comerzbank, Generali, BNP Paribas, FMS etc. face bad-debts many, many €Bs beyond any 'stress tests' organised by the EU.

Once one European bank collapses, then they'll go down like skittles as European central banks and the IMF are shown to have been playing fast and loose with asset reserves, leasing out gold to suppress the price.

The only smart move is to run, not walk, to your nearest bullion dealer and buy physical gold they may have left.

Well I'm not owed billions of Euro and Generali in Italy is an insurance company so I'm not sure why they'd be owed billions either.

Most of Greece's debt is owned by the Troika and domestic Greek banks. In fact almost half is owned by the EU via the EFSF.

Generali

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The Greek banks are to be closed for the entire week :shocked:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/28/greece-crisis-deepens-banks-close-a-week-weekend-shook-euro

The ECB is trying to force the Greeks into a deal which is basically the same as the current one.

For example the Greeks proposed raising more money by increasing VAT rather than corporation tax. That was rejected. Same amount of money raised but F... you, you're going to have austerity on German terms not your own.

Look up the 'red line letter'. The 'negotiators' even decided to correct some Greek capitalization of a word. This isn't a negotiation, it's a warning to anyone else who might be insolvent in future that the EU would rather destroy you than let you go down the normal road of default and rebuild.