Expert prediction for 2012: Down!

geneer

robmatic wrote: »

None of which denies the fact that you lead a weirdly obsessive and excessive internet life.

Not quite how I'd put it. But they key thing is, not being a hypocrite, I'm not going to make a habit of attacking people for obsessively posting on a web forum whilst onsessively posting on a web forum.

Which isn't really something you can claim, is it rob?

robmatic wrote: »

If people on here think that you're weird, then you're definitely weird.

The weirdos called the weirdo a weirdo. :rotfl:

geneer

Cleaver wrote: »

Just to be clear, by making the comment I did I wasn't trying to make some sort of point that my life is some sort of cool advert for doing wonderful stuff and that posting on the internet is some sort of stupid thing to do. I'm not cool and I happily post on this internet site.

I was simply making the point that your behaviour, and the others who are obsessed with your behaviour, are both a bit odd. You keep commenting on how I'm just the same, or as odd, as I've commented on it a dozen or so times. But that's a bit different to what must be a hundred thousand posts from dozens of posters, numerous avatars, cross posting on god-knows how many forums on whether one man (one man!) has bought a house or not. You've all even made up your own language and vocabulary on the subject. Whatever way you look at it, it's a bit odd. Surely you see that?

Sorry Cleaver, but yes your behaviour is every bit as odd.
You've just got different bee in your internet bonnet.

You're also good at wild exaggeration, which is a shame as it undermines the points you really shouldn't be obsessed with trying to make.

RenovationMan

chucknorris wrote: »

Well I certainly have an interest in HPI because I eventually want to sell up when the market picks up. But having a vested interest doesn't influence what I expect or say will happen, as I said I expect prices to fall slightly in the next few years nominally.

In the longer run as I have previously stated I expect prices (in London) to be about 10% lower (in real terms) than peak when I eventually sell in about 10-15 years time.

Are you selling up a BTL or downsizing?

We'll be looking to downsize in a similar-ish sort of timeframe, though more towards the 15 years rather than the 10. We've tended to maximise our house sale profit through renovations rather than relying on HPI, though a bit of HPI on this house will be more than welcome when we do come to downsize. It'll be nice to gain for once rather than being stung by HPI as we were while climbing the housing ladder.

geneer

RenovationMan wrote: »

I don't really care one way or another whether he has bought

Oh right. Evidently. :rotfl:

RenovationMan wrote: »

will be very interested in what now happens to a staunch Bear when they actually buy a house.

Very easy RM. Just recall all of our discussions since I joined here.

Not sure what you mean by "staunch bear". Looks like I've failed to live up to your stereotype eh.

geneer

chucknorris wrote: »

I don't think there is much difference of opinion in what's going to happen, the bull/bear thing is more historical than current. Apart from a few nutters who think prices will fall another 30%, I think most accept that prices will either stagnate or fall slightly nominally for the next few years.

I was classed by most as a bull but in 2008/9 I was saying prices would fall 35-40% nominally from peak, as it turns out I was wrong, as they didn't fall anywhere near that.

Thats funny. I thought they would fall 35% nominal+real from peak, with an initial drop off a cliff followed by years of grinding falls.

Which is strange, because, according to legend, I'm apparently I'm the biggest uber-bear ever.

Go figure. I guess some individuals aren't capable of telling the difference between someone who indulges in the meticulous deconstruction of their own spurious arguments and their handful boss eyed "enemies" allegedly predicting 70% falls.

geneer

chucknorris wrote: »

I don't think it would bother geneer in the slightest, he seems to be quite alienated already and it doesn't concern him. For the record I think he did buy. Why on earth would anyone make it up, it's not as if he's claimed to have bought a palace, far from it he has bought a modest house after years of saving. The timing of the announcement is strange, but then so is geneer.


I'm a bit bored by the whole thing to be honest. It's time to focus on what's important.

A very healthy attitude Chuck.
Where were you when Hamish, Rinoa, Heathcote and pimperne1 set out on their epic obsess-a-thons 5 years ago.

Or indeed where I'veSeenTheLight and RenovationMan did the same 1 year ago.

The only reason one mans home buying decisions can matter so very much is if someone lets it.


Gotta tell you Chuck, I though the whole Edinburgh thing was played out well before last year.

But then I found MSE. Almost the first thing I told IveSeenTheLight was that the argument he was about to intiate is one that has gone on for a while,
and one that had repeatedly backfired by those directing it my way to the point were it was actually stereotyped by a satirical series of cartoons.
I even showed him the cartoons.

And still he set out on a course of action where the outcome was effectively marked out.

What can I say. It amazes me that people care so much.

chucknorris

geneer wrote: »

Thats funny. I thought they would fall 35% nominal+real from peak, with an initial drop off a cliff followed by years of grinding falls.

Which is strange, because, according to legend, I'm apparently I'm the biggest uber-bear ever.

Go figure. I guess some individuals aren't capable of telling the difference between someone who indulges in the meticulous deconstruction of their own spurious arguments and their handful boss eyed "enemies" allegedly predicting 70% falls.

Well to be honest it was pretty hard to tell at that time, back in 2008. I didn't just dig up the 35-40% from thin air, that was the spread betting markets 'guestimate' of the midpoint spread price of -37% that I used as a guide as to how bad (or good for anyone looking to buy) things would get.

Of course they could have been wrong like any of the other market commentators, the difference was that they were actually putting their money where their mouth was, because punters could trade either way on that price. As it turned out things didn't turn out quite that bad.

Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one bird

RenovationMan

Jeeze geneer is spoiling for an argument, if the number of posts he's just spunked over the thread is anything to go by. I guess I was right when I said he would do anything to get the attention he craves, now that he can't cheerlead falling house prices. Though no doubt if prices fall substantially, he'll have another 'joke' at everyone's expense and the whole house purchase thing will be backtracked. :rotfl:

As I have said before, it's pointless engaging with him in any discourse because you can't believe a word he says. His back-story morphs on a daily basis and his position alters with the wind. Everything I have said about his lies has been backed up by geneer himself and his alleged retroactive house purchase. He's a born liar and will say anything if it gives him just 1 more minute of forum 'fame'. It's so embarrassing, really.

geneer

chucknorris wrote: »

Well to be honest it was pretty hard to tell at that time, back in 2008. I didn't just dig up the 35-40% from thin air, that was the spread betting markets 'guestimate' of the midpoint spread price of -37% that I used as a guide as to how bad (or good for anyone looking to buy) things would get.

Of course they could have been wrong like any of the other market commentators, the difference was that they were actually putting their money where their mouth was, because punters could trade either way on that price. As it turned out things didn't turn out quite that bad.

Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one bird

The mainstream median prediction is pretty much what I recall, but I took it as 35 to 40% real+nominal falls (which it had to be really).

Having seen a 20% nominal fall in my neck of the wood (based on ROS property searches) I took the bet that inflation on the back of funny money injections would play a part.

I also chose to buy in the winter. I have to admit this was wasn't a conscious plan, but it did work out in my favour.

I'm hoping further nominal falls locally won't be any more than 10%.
I've also bought on the basis that I could still afford my mortgage if rates hit 8% or so.

Also, given the fact that I put down a 25% deposit (which I have been overpaying too since I bought) its a fact that my mortgage is currently cheaper than my rent - though I wouldn't advocate this as a reason for buying.

The funny thing is, I suspect a lot of the guys so "delighted" with my news really can't fault my decision making process here.
Though, amusingly, some have tried, even though it involves contracticting their own assertions.

geneer

RenovationMan wrote: »

Jeeze geneer is spoiling for an argument, if the number of posts he's just spunked over the thread is anything to go by. I guess I was right when I said he would do anything to get the attention he craves, now that he can't cheerlead falling house prices.

You're attention I can do without RenovationMan. Yet here you are. :rotfl:
This ignoring really isn't working out for you.

I'll respond to comments directed my way with or without your permission thanks.

And sorry, I can't "cheerlead" falling house prices because I own?
The actual facts don't seem to bear that one out, do they?

Still, at least you've accepted the reality of my situation.
Your denial must have been getting a bit embarassing for you.