House prices to soar by 15%

drc

Maybe they got confused with "asking prices" and "selling prices". Who has the money in these crisis ridden times to afford to buy an overpriced home that will be a millstone of debt around their neck for the next 25+ years?

chucknorris

andybenw wrote: »

Agree with Chuck here.

A 15% rise in my property by 2016 would bring it back to 2007/8 level when I bought. ie the same price as 8/9 years ago.

Just to clarify I didn't quite mean that. What I meant was stagnation from now in real terms, rather than stagnation in nominal terms from 2007 (as you have to consider inflation otherwise any analysis is faulted). I can't see a return to 2007 levels in real terms for a very long time. Possibly even never, but I can see returns to within say 5-10% of 2007 prices in real terms in about 12-15 years.

andybenw

chucknorris wrote: »

Just to clarify I didn't quite mean that. What I meant was stagnation from now in real terms, rather than stagnation in nominal terms from 2007 (as you have to consider inflation otherwise any analysis is faulted). I can't see a return to 2007 levels in real terms for a very long time. Possibly even never, but I can see returns to say within 10% of 2007 prices in real terms in about 12-15 years.

A bit of confusion here I think. I meant a 15% rise would see my property the same nominal price 8/9 years later. With 8/9 years inflation built in this would be a large 'real terms' drop. I guess I am talking nominal stagnation and you are talking 'real terms' stagnation.

chucknorris

andybenw wrote: »

A bit of confusion here I think. I meant a 15% rise would see my property the same nominal price 8/9 years later. With 8/9 years inflation built in this would be a large 'real terms' drop. I guess I am talking nominal stagnation and you are talking 'real terms' stagnation.

Yes I agree we are both saying the same thing, I think it's important to recognise though (which you have now done) that there has been a drop. A drop of course isn't necessarily relevant if you hold the property over the period of time as other factors can of course compensate for a fall in real terms:

- Higher rental profits due to lower mortgage rates (mine equates to approx 2% of capital value per annum at the current boe base rate).

- Lower capital gains tax at the point of disposal

andybenw

chucknorris wrote: »

Yes I agree we are both saying the same thing, I think it's important to recognise though (which you have now done) that there has been a drop. A drop of course isn't necessarily relevant if you hold the property over the period of time as other factors can of course compensate for a fall in real terms:

- Higher rental profits due to lower mortgage rates (mine equates to approx 2% of capital value per annum at the current boe base rate).

- Lower capital gains tax at the point of disposal

I think we are both singing off the same hymn sheet Chuck.

Owning my own place without a mortgage and currently thinking about but not yet bought BTL (probably in a couple of years for cash if everything pans out) probably the best outcome for myself now would be a large nominal drop in prices over the next year. But I just cannot see that happening. I am pretty happy with stagnation as it allows to plan. Eventually when houses are more affordable to FTB prices will start to rise again, but that will be a few years down the line as it will be tempered by a move away from ultra low interest rate levels. I expect we will have some form of regulation by then to limit silly mortgage lending and can hope for inflation(ish) based rises.

N1AK

Sibley wrote: »

House prices are stable and going to rise. Read the story. Think about it. It's FACT.

Oh god. I'd not realised that I'd wasted a couple of hours debating with someone who doesn't even understand the definition of 'fact'.

The rest of your post was basically a brutish attempt to play the man not the ball, your standard modus operandi, which is pretty pathetic.

brit1234

My reply to the article:

SARAH O’GRADY WORST PROPERTY CORRESPONDENT EVER

25.11.11, 10:20am
Her property articles are amongst Britain's biggest joke. She spouts propaganda like the former Iraqi and Libyan Information ministers. Why oh why does she get the front page with this rubbish.

Her two sources are widely discredited. CEBR is a shame economics agency paid for by the builders lobby groups. Assetz is a buy to let company which requires housing capital growth to survive.

Is the express a newspaper or a false propaganda piece of junk?
• Posted by: brit1234 • Report Comment

Estate agents are reporting lowest level of first time buyers ever, talking about house prices crashing and that is an estate agent on bbc now.:D

Mallotum_X

Its the Express. Doesnt really need any further comment.

Sibley

What's kinda always grated me on this forum is if the people like Sibley, Hamish etc were wanting to buy their first property they would be arguing for lower prices, so their arguments stink of selfishness

Yes, that's right as well. I'm in this for me. I don't care about who is priced out. I want as much as possible when I sell my house.
Either the rent or the lump sum I get will fund my retirement.

So me admitting my personal failings. Surely that means all the so called bears would be acting exactly the same as me if the shoe was on the other foot?

Everyone wants to look after themselves. It's human nature.

Mallotum_X

Sibley wrote: »

Yes, that's right as well. I'm in this for me. I don't care about who is priced out. I want as much as possible when I sell my house.
Either the rent or the lump sum I get will fund my retirement.

So me admitting my personal failings. Surely that means all the so called bears would be acting exactly the same as me if the shoe was on the other foot?

Everyone wants to look after themselves. It's human nature.

Correct, but wanting something (even if the Express prints it) doesnt make it so. You are more like the 70% club bears than perhaps you would care to admit.

Average house prices (like the Economy) are going to be pretty flat for some years to come. To cling to hopes of something the Express sticks out makes it look like you dont really have any understanding of whats going on.

Currently unlikely to be any significant further crash, but any future boom is many years away.