Rightmove October 2011 +2.8%

Mallotum_X

Really2 wrote: »

If you can't see how a house listed this month does not change the percentage of asking prices acheived in sold houses months ago. the debate is pointless.

The example was used to point out it would have no effect on a like for like basis!!!!! Not hard to understand surely.

Also can't you see that sold price would be related to houses listed 3-5 months ago not houses listed this month!!

To get the percentage of list prices for houses sold in August would you not use the that they were marketed for months ago not this month?

Ah you changed your post since i replied.

So if history has no impact you must be saying that on your like for like basis example then sold prices will be rising by 2.8%, otherwise the achieved % will fall.

On what basis and on what timescale will sold prices increase to keep the % achieved the same?

If I purchased something last month and it's asking price went up this month it does not mean the seller is accepting a lower percentage does it?

It does unless they manage to increase the sold price, so on what basis will we see prices rise and over what period?

Really2

Mallotum_X wrote: »

Ah you changed your post since i replied.

So if history has no impact you must be saying that on your like for like basis example then sold prices will be rising by 2.8%, otherwise the achieved % will fall.

On what basis and on what timescale will sold prices increase to keep the % achieved the same?


It does unless they manage to increase the sold price, so on what basis will we see prices rise and over what period?

Quiet obvious their is a relationship between asking prices and sale prices, it looks to be around 4-6months after.


But asking prices are up, houses are cheaper.:j

I lose track of what does't make houses cheaper to be honest

Really2

Mallotum_X wrote: »

If the housing market worked the way you seem to think then all one has to do is increase the asking price and yo uare guaranteed more sale proceeds

!!!!!!, where did I even suggest that.:rotfl:

god, it's just a months data.

Mallotum_X

Really2 wrote: »

Quiet obvious their is a relationship between asking prices and sale prices, it looks to be around 4-6months after.


But asking prices are up, houses are cheaper.:j

I lose track of what does't make houses cheaper to be honest

Ok, so just to be clear, you are saying that house sale prices will be roughly 3% higher in 4 to 6 months time, and that the reason for increased sale prices is because asking prices went up?

Really2

Mallotum_X wrote: »

Ok, so just to be clear, you are saying that house sale prices will be roughly 3% higher in 4 to 6 months time, and that the reason for increased sale prices is because asking prices went up?

It is quiet possible house prices could be around 3% higher in 3-6 months time but I would say you need more than one months increase in asking prices for that to look likely. 3% is hardly a huge move.

It is also quiet possible the percentage of asking price achived will have hardly changed in 4-6 months time.


So now for your turn, where is the data showing the percentage of asking price acheived decreases when asking prices go up?

Mallotum_X

Really2 wrote: »

!!!!!!, where did I even suggest that.:rotfl:

god, it's just a months data.

Yep just a months data, upon which you posted the following.

Really2 wrote: »

Why has the Gap increased if prices go up, surely it is basically the same as a percentage but more expensive in nominal terms for the buyer?

Last month
£100,000 asking price. 92% achieved = £92,000

This month
£102,800 asking Price. 92% achieved = £94,576

Unless the % achieved has changed the cost is higher?[/QUOTE]


You are putting the cart before the horse, the % achieved is a combination of asking price and sold price. We know initial asking prices have gone up this month, and that the current trend is for falling house prices.

Unless house prices go up by the same % then that 92% achieved figure will change wont it?

Really2

Really2 wrote: »

So now for your turn, where is the data showing the percentage of asking price acheived decreases when asking prices go up?

Thought I would be hoping for too much......

it is fairly clear Unless the % achieved has changed the cost is higher!!!!!! It is not the cart before the horse House goes on sale, price negotiated then sold. If the negotiated difference hardly changes prices will go up if asking prices keep rising. (all things being the same)
It's a simple example but one firmly routed in logic and statistics to back it up.

But look forward to that data.

Mallotum_X

Really2 wrote: »

So now for your turn, where is the data showing the percentage of asking price acheived decreases when asking prices go up?

That would suggest that initial asking prices dictate final sale prices, rather than the market sets the price achieved and that initial asking prices should reflect the market.

I would suggest that the market sets sale price rather than where the initial asking price was set.

Whereas you seem to be saying initial asking prices set the final sale price rather than the market.

From RM

June +0.6%
May +1.3%
April +1.7%
March +0.8%
Feb +3.1%
Jan +0.3%


With the 4-6 Months Lag you were happy to work with before.

August -0.3%
July +1.2%
June -0.4%
May -0.6%

So with the earlier part of this year all RM moves were positive and Land Reg figures were up and down with pretty much zero change overall, which ever months you want to link together.

RM initial asking prices bear little (if any) link to the sale prices the market sets.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/may-2011
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/april-2011
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/march-2011
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/february-2011
http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/house-prices/house-price-index-custom-reports (select period)

Mallotum_X

Really2 wrote: »

it is fairly clear Unless the % achieved has changed the cost is higher!!!!!!

Can we clear this point up, as you really seem to be missing a basic grasp of the market.

The % achieved is not set in stone, its not really a stat that means a lot.

I will spell this out simply as you dont seem to understand.

Its made up of two things:

1, the Asking price - set by estate agents, sometimes high we know to get a sale, based (hopefully) on what the agent thinks the local market will bear.

2, the sale price, set by what the purchasers consider the property to be worth, confirmed by surveyors/Banks etc.

The 2 figures are not directly related.

Have you ever bought a property? No one says oh well thats up for 100k but i know the current % achieved figure is 92% so i will offer 92k.

They will almost certainly look at other properties, past sales, current trends etc and make an offer.

As a result the % achieved is all over the place, it does not direct the price, its a result of sale price and asking price.

Really2

Mallotum_X wrote: »

The % achieved is not set in stone, its not really a stat that means a lot.

Your Joking, I thought it was as I have clearly said it was?

Just that I can't find it on this thread where I wrote the % achieved never changes.

All I can find is examples of using it "all things being equal"

There are a lot of things on this thread I have seemed to have said but I can't find where I said them.


I am surprised some are so mad about a increase in index which virtually everyone thinks has little link to sale prices, and is at best an indicator of future sales price direction.

But Obviously saying that mean I think prices will go up 3%.

Ever thought that the % of price achieved staying at around 92.5% for the last 9 months regardless of falls or rises could be to do with the fact that it is the houses correctly priced make up the majority of that data?

So

Mallotum_X wrote: »

So the gap between asking prices and sold prices increased again this month. Those selling prices must be hurting some.

Why are they hurting? it seems like those priced correctly are selling at less than 8% below asking price.

I hardly think those that put high asking prices are hurting, as they are clearly not selling??

The truth is the gap between asking prices and sold prices decreased slightly from 92.5% to 92.6%.
http://www.hometrack.co.uk/commentary-and-analysis/house-price-survey/20111003.cfm
It has hardly deviated from rightmove asking price falls and increases in the last 9 months.
But don't let the facts distort a good story.

So the outcome, those that are priced correctly sell, those that don't don't.

But % of asking price is a reasonable indicator of house prices, when falling prices tend to fall, when rising prices tend to increase and when stagnant prices tend to be stagnant.