Rightmove October 2011 +2.8%

Mallotum_X

Your answers are getting more and more muddled and confused.

"all things being equal", then the market would be constant, and thus sales prices would not increase.

For your own example to work all things can't remain equal, you need sales prices to increase. Which we know, do not increase simply as a result of putting the asking price up, something else has to change. So what is going to change?

As we both probably agree only the correctly priced (or at least those that will negotiate if not correct) will sell. How many are not correctly priced, and how many that go onto the market this month will have price cuts?

I thought (might be wrong, in which case please provide a link) that with the hometrack report we do not know whether they are comparing against initial asking prices, or final asking prices (its kind of important), to be a meaningful stat, or even how they are prepared. Do you know? On your link sold price vs achieved (on whatever basis they are prepared under) vary quite wildly over the last few years. So its not as simple to just say that those priced correctly sell [at 92%].

So the housing market doesnt remain equal, things change. Your example at the start was flawed, based on data we all agree is flawed.

Really2

Mallotum_X wrote: »

So the housing market doesnt remain equal, things change. Your example at the start was flawed, based on data we all agree is flawed.

It was an example, hypothetical.
I do not think everything is ridged, remains equal etc, but it is a fairly standard way of presenting things.
EG IF everything remains the same this happens....

It was just to show your idea that this meant the percentage of asking price achieved would lower as incorrect.

To prove that your own hypothesis was also flawed. There is no evidence to back up what you wrote.


We can all agree though average asking prices do not bare more than a passing resemblance to sold prices.

The two in reality are far apart.

The ones overpriced will not make it in to the sold data.

Graham_Devon

Thought it may be useful to look at some previous insight into rightmove....when prices are falling that is...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I'm pointing out that asking price falls are meaningless.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Thought it may be useful to look at some previous insight into rightmove....when prices are falling that is...

Dev,

You know it is always unwise to do that.

When falling also you too Hamish.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'd actually agree, it IS a good indicator of sentiment. Shame you decided to try and make something out of it with chucky when I said that....should I link that too? As your consistency took a wrong turn there, too, it seems?

Boom on then GD.

I should point out I tend to think rightmove has little relation to sold prices and have done for sometime, thank god. (although their is a bit of statistical correlation, it is not my favored index)
Seems to much falling over ones own feet with this index.

Graham_Devon

Mallotum_X wrote: »

Can we clear this point up, as you really seem to be missing a basic grasp of the market.

He's disagreeing with himself and whats he's previously stated about the rightmove index....again..

Simple thing to add in yes not all people pay asking prices. But in 2008 people were paying far below asking price, that narrowed in 2009.

Would you rather buy a :

£200K asking price house with a offer 20% below
Or it to be reduced to
£190K and have an offer accepted 10% below.

Sale prices are the only real way of tracking house prices asking price ignores discount like you said.

He agrees with you basically. But he can't agree, because of the need to argue, twist, squirm and do a nice little dance around what you are actually saying.

Just like Hamish, if it's up, it's fine. If its down, it's worth noting that the index is asking prices, no sold prices.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Dev,

You know it is always unwise to do that.

When falling also you to Hamish.

You can quote me as much as you like. I'm not arguing anything on this thread. It is a good indicator of sentiment. But even Miles Shipside is using words which describe delusion now.

Just amused me that Hamish suddenly has no problems. Don't make me use the search again by the way...theres a lot more from you disagreeing with yourself!

Really2 wrote: »

I am saying you can have falling asking prices and rising sales prices and visa versa.

The only way of knowing HPI is through sold prices, I will say that no matter if rightmove goes up or down.
Right move is non seasonally adjusted raw data, (so can be skewed by more higher or lower value houses coming on the market)

It is very hard to derive what a house will sell/sold for based on the price it was marketed at.

Hmmm....

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You can quote me as much as you like. I'm not arguing anything on this thread. It is a good indicator of sentiment. But even Miles Shipside is using words which describe delusion now.

Just amused me that Hamish suddenly has no problems. Don't make me use the search again by the way...theres a lot more from you disagreeing with yourself!


Hmmm....

You could have quote me off page 1 of this thread

Really2 wrote: »

Asking prices are not a great indicator of housing cost

Or page 2

Really2 wrote: »

1+1 = A Squirrel.

Me + Does not think sold prices will be up 2.8% next month = Me saying they will be up 3% a month?

Or page 3

Really2 wrote: »

We can all agree though average asking prices do not bare more than a passing resemblance to sold prices

I think someone thought I had changed stance.
Can't think of a time I have ever said that rightmove will transpire to a corresponding rise or fall.
It's an aspiration index.

There is no way of knowing HPI off this, as I have stated earlier in the thread.!!!!

Mallotum_X

Really2 wrote: »

I think someone thought I had changed stance.
Can't think of a time I have ever said that rightmove will transpire to a corresponding rise or fall.
It's an aspiration index.

So what was your early post #9 all about then?

It makes no sense when reading what you are now saying does it?

You had a 1 month movement demonstrating an increase in sold prices.

mystic_trev

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Thought it may be useful to look at some previous insight into rightmove....when prices are falling that is...

I feel you've missed the best bit

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Had they risen this month it would be equally meaningless

Really2

Mallotum_X wrote: »

So what was your early post #9 all about then?

It makes no sense when reading what you are now saying does it?

You had a 1 month movement demonstrating an increase in sold prices.

How many times,

It was to illustrate that rising asking prices does not have to mean the percentage of asking price achived has to fall, if everything was equal it would increase.
That does not mean I think everything is equal, it is an example.


Why has saying the percentage of sold price is not certain to decrease on this data (like you made out) turned in to me saying houseprices are certain to increase?

When I have said all along it does not relate directly to house prices (even though there are similarities in rises and falls.)

I love this forum, I disagree that this is going to mean the spread between asking and sale price increases.
That means I must think house prices will rise 2.8% on the back of the data.

Asking prices have risen, wow.

Like before you can't predict HPI of this data, as the difference between selling price and asking price is unknown.

I have made no prediction. But you have predicted this meens the spread between asking prices and sales prices will increase further.

It is the houses that are priced correctly make up the percentage spread, not the asking prices of all houses.
That is why it is unlikely to change little on this data. My original point.

People are confusing all asking prices with asking prices of those sold.
Thus this data is not going to effect the spread really. Do you get it?

Putting this data on price achieved data to make a point was IMHO an incorect way to view the market.