Recession

villa2010

zagfles wrote: »

The truth is there is no easy answer. The problem was caused by "fake" growth based on excessive borrowing. You either make cuts and balance the books now, which will kill growth and be painful, or you carry on borrowing and get a bit more "fake" growth and delay the day the bills come, which will be even more painful and result in an even bigger recession.

The problem was caused by excessive borrowing, you don't solve that by borrowing even more. That's a bit like trying to fix a hangover by getting drunk again.

All of the builders that I have spoken to have all said that they are very busy and rammed full of work.

How can this be...If the economy is so bad...?

Jimmy_31

villa2010 wrote: »

All of the builders that I have spoken to have all said that they are very busy and rammed full of work.

How can this be...If the economy is so bad...?

Most of the builders i know are sat at home because they have no work.

Pennywise

villa2010 wrote: »

All of the builders that I have spoken to have all said that they are very busy and rammed full of work.

How can this be...If the economy is so bad...?

Yes, I know the feeling. We're wanting a small extension built and were given a list of "good" local builders by the architect. We've contacted all six of them and none will even come out to give a quote as they've all said they wouldn't be able to start it until next Summer as they've got work lined up for several months ahead. We've now got a hard choice of waiting for a recommended builder or taking pot luck on someone randomly picked from Yellow Pages - not good!

Also been trying to get a roofer to do a general service of our roof and same story - all the local firms are too busy and quoting months before they could do it.

I think the reality is that times are hard for the big impersonal firms at one end and also for the newly started or cowboy outfits at the other. The reputable local, smaller firms seem to be doing OK.

worldtraveller

The likelihood of another UK recession is "significant", even if eurozone leaders manage to contain the region's debt crisis, a Bank of England policymaker has warned.

Paul Fisher, a member of the Bank's nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) also said there was a 50-50 chance the economy would contract in the final three months of the year.

"Looking at the fourth quarter, at best it seems to be flat, [and] could easily have negative growth, so the technical outcome of two quarters of negative growth in a row could quite easily come about," he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Telegraph

IMHO, as I've said before, we never really left the last recession, but, on a technical basis, I think he's still wide of the mark and would put it at around 100% probability myself! Further extention of smoke & mirrors? Also 100%. Triple dip recession? Probably!

villa2010

With the growth figures today being .5%.

Does this mean we have avoided an official recession for another 6 months...?

gailey_2

villa2010 wrote: »

With the construction industry being hard hit does that mean all of the suppliers such as Travis Perkins and Selco will find it difficult too..?

Cant speak for selco but hubby works for tp group and tp builders merchants doing quite well im guessing larger scale building projects still going ahead, noticed few new houses in gardens springing up here and extensions as people cant afford to move.

But wickes part of tp group its hard set tough targets for kitchens and bathrooms. basically the high end stuff stilll selling as the very rich still have money but has slowed.

rest of competitors also struggling as guess less home improvements as moben went few months back ,bath store stuggling and homebase been doing badly, ohh how can i forget focus went this year too.

This might sound bit simplistic but those who said inflation will fall what do you base this on?

How do you lower inflation without increasing interest rates?
As it looks unlikly boe will do this anytime soon.
Also is quantative easing increasing inflation
as well as rising fuel costs.
rents are increasing

just cant see how it would magically fall of own accord without some action.

Are there any spending reveiw stuff coming into play 2012? think child benefit goes from higher income earners 2013 but think theres big change to tax credits next year and unsure when the tax threshold for lower earners gets raised.

MrRee_2

It's never been a rosier outlook ...... it's all over bar the lady singing.

Everyone is buying - prices are firming up.

Rejoice - the UK is climbing free of the recession, at last!

Jimmy_31

MrRee wrote: »

It's never been a rosier outlook ...... it's all over bar the lady singing.

Everyone is buying - prices are firming up.

Rejoice - the UK is climbing free of the recession, at last!

Fcuk it im buying a jetski.

sheffield_lad

its not getting in or out of recession its the penny dropping that the last 20yr free for all is well and truly over. I don't think we will double dip but I also don't think e will ever spend our way out of this one as EVERYBODY has too much debt, you, me the government. That's what Balls does not understand he looks at how you normally get out of recession and thinks lending more and spending more is the way but even if the Gov gave every family a £1k bonus today most would not spend it but pay down debt or save it for a rainy day (we all know what the irresponsible minority would do), if that's Balls ups dream lol.

So 7 (at least), baron years unless people borrow more to survive then it could last the full 20yrs. It's dusk for the West & the dawn of a brighter future for the far East. We need to start accepting hard facts.

sheffield_lad

gailey wrote: »

This might sound bit simplistic but those who said inflation will fall what do you base this on?

How do you lower inflation without increasing interest rates?
As it looks unlikly boe will do this anytime soon.
Also is quantative easing increasing inflation
as well as rising fuel costs.
rents are increasing

just cant see how it would magically fall of own accord without some action.

.

It will fall a full 1% from Jan as the VAT rise comes off. Add little growth and lower European interest rates as they decline more rapidly than us allowing imports to drop. I think the BOE are more worried about deflation.