Recession

villa2010

With the construction industry being hard hit does that mean all of the suppliers such as Travis Perkins and Selco will find it difficult too..?

villa2010

With growth only being 0.1 % this quarter.

Do you all think that if we have another recession it will be worse than the last one...?

Mrs_Bones

I think we will see lots of trouble and closures in the retail sector after the holiday period, which in turn will mean increased unemployment. I know many retailers are feeling gloomy about the coming season and it is the one time of the year that many expect to make up for the previous bad times during the year.

Some I know have already closed shop in Sept. because they just couldn't see that the holiday season will bring the gains needed to carry on, so they cut and run before the next quarter day at the end of Sept. These were not fly by night shops but ones of long standing with good local reputations.

This country moved away from a being a country based on production to one based on the service industry, banking and retail. These sectors are only good while people had money or credit in their pocket to spend.

StevieJ

B_Blank wrote: »

Some say this recession has proved Keynesian ideas to be wrong. You cant just spend your way out of recession if your borrowing costs reach higher levels as a result

Some say that is a load of bollards it would seem that taking an economic back seat in the boom times (allowing private enterprise to fill the void) and reversing that policy in a recession/depression is a perfectly sensible economic policy, pity no govt actually does that

Jimmy_31

villa2010 wrote: »

With the construction industry being hard hit does that mean all of the suppliers such as Travis Perkins and Selco will find it difficult too..?

Yes, suppliers are having to offer better discounts or the contractor will just go elsewhere for their materials. Plant and tool hire companys are being hit quite hard as well.

ILW

shortchanged wrote: »

I can just see the excuses now.........."manufacturing declined during the period of the Olympics as loads of people stayed off work and got pi**ed. Therefore the drop in GDP for this quarter was due in combination with that and the 1 rainy and 2 cloudy days we had during that time. However on the plus side we have employed 2 new part time litter pickers to clean up all the mess after the Olympics"

And they are Romanian.

zagfles

villa2010 wrote: »

With growth only being 0.1 % this quarter.

Do you all think that if we have another recession it will be worse than the last one...?

If it's worse than the last one we'll be well in s***, "growth" was about minus 5% !! Don't think there's any chance of things getting that bad again - basically the last one was down to unrealistic growth up to 2007 based on excessive consumer spending using borrowed money.

The bottom line is we aren't as rich as we thought we were - if we just accept this instead of some silly attempt to pretend we are by borrowing more, then we might slowly get some sustainable growth which won't suddenly be wiped out when people/banks/companies realise they've borrowed too much.

villa2010

zagfles wrote: »

If it's worse than the last one we'll be well in s***, "growth" was about minus 5% !! Don't think there's any chance of things getting that bad again - basically the last one was down to unrealistic growth up to 2007 based on excessive consumer spending using borrowed money.

Is stagnation worse that a recession...?

lvader

I would argue that Stagnation is exactly what we need at the moment. There is too much obsession with growth.

zagfles

villa2010 wrote: »

Is stagnation worse that a recession...?

No. "Stagnation" just means we aren't getting any richer. Recession means we're getting poorer. Growth based on more borrowing will likely lead to another recession when the bills have to be paid.

Maybe if we just slowed down and stopped this obsessive pursuit of growth (ie getting richer) we'd all be a lot happier. Politicians are the most obsessed because it's the miracle that enables them to deliver more without taxing us more.