Recession

Thrugelmir

howee wrote: »

So 7 (at least), baron years unless people borrow more to survive then it could last the full 20yrs. It's dusk for the West & the dawn of a brighter future for the far East. We need to start accepting hard facts.

The Far East still needs Western trade. So that bright future may be dimmer than people realise.

sheffield_lad

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The Far East still needs Western trade. So that bright future may be dimmer than people realise.

Ummm, not too sure, at the moment the far east has export as it's main industry but as billions of them become middle class they will require a service industry and will create a strong consumer market. I don't think the far East require anyone else.

'It said there are 143,000 multimillionaires and 8,800 billionaires in Beijing.
There are 116,000 multimillionaires and 7,000 billionaires in Shanghai.'

ChiefGrasscutter

And I look forward to all those billions of 'em driving their cars, heating their houses, switching on their electric gizmos...and watch the planet simply explode.

Thrugelmir

howee wrote: »

Ummm, not too sure, at the moment the far east has export as it's main industry but as billions of them become middle class they will require a service industry and will create a strong consumer market. I don't think the far East require anyone else.

'It said there are 143,000 multimillionaires and 8,800 billionaires in Beijing.
There are 116,000 multimillionaires and 7,000 billionaires in Shanghai.'

Interesting article.

Many of China's Rich Look for an Exit

BEIJING—More than half of China's millionaires are either considering emigrating or have already taken steps to do so, according to a survey that builds on similar findings earlier this year, highlighting worries among the business elite about their quality of life and financial prospects, despite the country's fast-paced growth.

The U.S. is the most popular emigration destination, according to the survey of 980 Chinese people with assets of more than 10 million yuan ($1.6 million) published on Saturday by Bank of China and wealth researcher Hurun Report.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577011760523331438.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

sheffield_lad

Thrugelmir

Good article interesting reading but that still leaves an awful lot (the other 50%), who need the service industries. Maybe when such industries are in place there will be less emigration.

Not a bad idea for the UK to promote the good life (London), to them, get them spending it here.

gailey_2

howee wrote: »

It will fall a full 1% from Jan as the VAT rise comes off. Add little growth and lower European interest rates as they decline more rapidly than us allowing imports to drop. I think the BOE are more worried about deflation.

Have I missed something ? dident realise vat was being cut.

darling cut it by 2.5%to 15percent during crunch made little difference to us we had to get new tv as ours broke and saved £10 on £400 spend.
Then went back up to 17.5%
But at last spending reveiw think went up 2.5%in jan to 20%
is it going back down to 17.5%?

I know they were super generous on not adding penny on petrol:rotfl:

Inflations forcast to be 5.2%by jan.
boe target is 2%.

we assuming we get growth?
think next quarter be slightly better due to xmas but not as good as previous years.

Think we maybe headingfor another credit cruch if european banks lose money then wont lend to other banks meaning banks wont lend to consumers.

we worse off than this time last year in part due to rising living costs.
so are a lot of people we know.
seems worse now than when we were in recession/credit crunch.

Dont think boe know what they doing.

sheffield_lad

Err nope but the 2.5% vat increase is calculated into this years figures giving us a full 1% inflation down to VAT, come Jan we will have had a 12mths cycle so prices year on year will not include 2.5% vat increase and inflation level (roughly will be a full 1% lower), inflation will be a lot lot lower next year as we have little growth, its deflation we need to be aware of.

villa2010

whats the difference between debt and deficit...?

(Its not a joke!!!) :beer:

villa2010

howee wrote: »

its not getting in or out of recession its the penny dropping that the last 20yr free for all is well and truly over. I don't think we will double dip but I also don't think e will ever spend our way out of this one as EVERYBODY has too much debt, you, me the government. That's what Balls does not understand he looks at how you normally get out of recession and thinks lending more and spending more is the way but even if the Gov gave every family a £1k bonus today most would not spend it but pay down debt or save it for a rainy day (we all know what the irresponsible minority would do), if that's Balls ups dream lol.

So 7 (at least), baron years unless people borrow more to survive then it could last the full 20yrs. It's dusk for the West & the dawn of a brighter future for the far East. We need to start accepting hard facts.

Does Balls not think that we are cutting too much too quickly and this has a direct correlation on growth.

sheffield_lad

villa2010 wrote: »

Does Balls not think that we are cutting too much too quickly and this has a direct correlation on growth.

Yes spot on, his idea is keep bus lane enforcement officers in their jobs, cut slower and borrow more (the deficit), as after all whats a few more billion on the trillion we owe lol.

He forgets that cutting VAT costs = borrow more

How many of us actually believe there is no room to cut in the public sector? Very few we all know it, staff who turn up for the 9am shift at 10.30am and no one bats an eye lid. No targets and if targets are suggested/introduced its STRIKE.

The one thing Balls needs to understand is reading a book about how governments got out of debt in years gone by is no good for this recession its built on debt adding more is no plan B it's plan D isaster.