Recession

villa2010

angrypirate wrote: »

Nothing to do with the Eurozone or Global economy. We were heading for a recession on our own with or without the external factors. All labour did was borrow their way out of the recession in time for the election.

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports)

That £186billion a year from labour plus £200billion from QE was simply borrowing our way out of a recession

Growth was double the rate just over a year ago - now look whats happened...!

villa2010

bendix wrote: »

No offense, but is there a history of autism in your family?

Weeeey..!

No I work in the specialized metal industry so I was just wandering if I will have a job in the future.

If you would have read the previous post you would have understood.

lvader

I expect 2 things to save us from a new recession. Lower inflation, GDP growth is after inflation, lower inflation will help. The 2nd thing is the Olympic games, this is a huge event and will certainly register in the GDP figures for 2012.

Mrs_Bones

lvader wrote: »

I expect 2 things to save us from a new recession. Lower inflation, GDP growth is after inflation, lower inflation will help. The 2nd thing is the Olympic games, this is a huge event and will certainly register in the GDP figures for 2012.

I'm not convinced yet that lower inflation is going to happen, the BOE have been promising that for well over a year now, the boy who shouts wolf too often stops being believed.

The Olympic's should figure somewhere in next years GDP for at least a couple of weeks and hopefully a bit either side but past history has showed that long term the Games do not bring massive benefits to the host country, but unlike some, we will hopefully make a profit and not a loss.

I think the best hope is that the Olympics could bring us out of a recession, because I think we are in danger of entering one before they get here.

worldtraveller

lvader wrote: »

I expect 2 things to save us from a new recession. Lower inflation, GDP growth is after inflation, lower inflation will help. The 2nd thing is the Olympic games, this is a huge event and will certainly register in the GDP figures for 2012.

IMHO I fear that we will, 'technically' be in another recession well before the Olympic Games (I don't believe that we have actually really left the last recession, TBH). However, as I have stated many times before, I also believe that inflation will fall later this year and into early/mid next.

lvader

Mrs_Bones wrote: »

I'm not convinced yet that lower inflation is going to happen, the BOE have been promising that for well over a year now, the boy who shouts wolf too often stops being believed.

I don't listen to so called expers, I look at the fondamentals.

Many commodity prices are lower now than 12 months ago, this will feed through in next years inflation figures.

The Pound is doing OK at the moment keeping pace with the USD and the Euro compared to 12 months ago.

No more VAT increases next year.

Wage increases still low.

I'd be shocked if inflation doesn't dip below 3% at some point next year.

The Olympic's should figure somewhere in next years GDP for at least a couple of weeks and hopefully a bit either side but past history has showed that long term the Games do not bring massive benefits to the host country, but unlike some, we will hopefully make a profit and not a loss.

Most of the expense is out of the way building the infrastructure, even if we end up with an overall loss it should still help from a GDP point of view.

I think the best hope is that the Olympics could bring us out of a recession, because I think we are in danger of entering one before they get here.

Given that you need 2 quarters of negative growth to have recession, we are getting very close to the point were a entering a recession before the Olympics would be unlikely.

bendix

villa2010 wrote: »

Weeeey..!

No I work in the specialized metal industry so I was just wandering if I will have a job in the future.

If you would have read the previous post you would have understood.

Weeeeey . .

Well, if you work in a specialized metal industry, I suspect that you would be better placed to understand the prospects of that industry than anyone else, wouldn't you?

Is your company more busy or less busy than two years ago, and why?

There you go - there's your answer.

bendix

StevieJ wrote: »

No offence but are you a Yank?

What a strange thing to say SteveJ. Let's face it, you're not the sharpest tool in the MSE Forum, but usually there is some semblance of reality in your posts. This one is just . . well . . just plain unusual.

bendix

itsallagame wrote: »

No offence but even wondered why you don't get laid?

No, that's not something I've ever worried about. I leave those sort of issues for Mrs Bendix to ponder.

shortchanged_2

lvader wrote: »

I expect 2 things to save us from a new recession. Lower inflation, GDP growth is after inflation, lower inflation will help. The 2nd thing is the Olympic games, this is a huge event and will certainly register in the GDP figures for 2012.

I can just see the excuses now.........."manufacturing declined during the period of the Olympics as loads of people stayed off work and got pi**ed. Therefore the drop in GDP for this quarter was due in combination with that and the 1 rainy and 2 cloudy days we had during that time. However on the plus side we have employed 2 new part time litter pickers to clean up all the mess after the Olympics"