House Price Crash within 2 years???????

Alan_M_2

CB1979 wrote:

your boyfriend is blatantly bluffing you so that he has a reason NOT to buy with you, he's probably waiting for your younger (and no doubt) more attractive sister to come of age so he can move in with her.

good luck though in what you do

Anyone say Cynic?:rotfl:

mystic_trev

Alan_M wrote:

Anyone say Cynic?:rotfl:

Funny although Alan. She says it's HER flat yet her boyfriends telling her there's going to be a Crash. I wonder if he's trying to get out of doing a bit of decorating / DIY So he can spend more time down the Pub with his mates!

chant1l

To say you don't know here sound like an unintelligent comment, but to say you are sure there will be one sounds like you know something everybody else doesn't . I have been a commercial buyer of residential property since 1991, and cannot remember one wise voice predicting the last fall, although many have claimed to see a fall every year since then.....

In answer I don't know (and I haven't seen any compelling arguments to date) and doubt it very much.

epz_2

its pretty widely expected that theres going to be a market correction though it really depends on the area you live, all i can do is illustrate the area i live and why i think it is overpriced.

i live in the glasgow area where prices have tripled in the last 7 years, this is due to numerous factors such as low interest rates, the council knocking down loads of old council houses, the buy to let market which is helped by aformentioned councils, and a constant barrage of tv programs showwing property prices going up £30k a year etc.

now we have the problems which i think puts a celling on property prices, unlike the south east there is absolutly no shortage of space and you can be surrounded by green fields in about 15 mins drive from both glasgow and edininburgh.

the available space has resulted in a huge number of new build propertys, everywhere you look there seems to be a new estate going up, granted many on the land that used to be council houses. now unlike the southeast scotland actually does have a declining and ageing population. this means rising supply (1) and dropping demand.

second point is the wages here are a lot lower than the uk average and its not like we are a tourist area like cornwall with a vibrant holiday home market i probably earn 10K over the average and can only afford a 2 bed flat in a reasonable to scummy area. this means people are seriosly stretching themselves and financial bumbs can seriously affect them.

now given its widely predicted another 0.5% interest rate rise over the next 3 months and the bank of englands stated policy of sacrificing the scottish economy to maintain the southeast property stability (2) and you can expect job losses and people in real financial trouble up here, no job and its repossesion time.

then we have the really nasty bit which could drop values rather than just cap prices, the constant media shows about making money from houses etc will soon stop when all the featgured muppets start losing big chunks of cash, similarly the puy to let market who are leveraged up to their eyes are gonng to see 2+ morgages payment go up yet be tied to long term contracts for rent and with renters having plenty of choice if they try and hike rate. that is where the panic selling which starts a negative price spiral comes from.

on the plus side it going to be fun to watch daytime tvs how to make a fortune from reposesions etc.

(1) slightly skewed by council action but this will only be a temporary effect

(2) harsh but in terms of macro ecnomics it makes sence since the southeast population dwarfs scotlands

apoorstudent

manhattan wrote:

derek acorah's in the house! well......................... until its repossesed!

What does Derek Acorah got to do with anything? *wonders*

EDIT: Haha, I thought you were all talking about Big Brother, so I got all excited. I'm an idiot.

sarkin

As A mortgage broker I have inside information on the state of peoples finances and it's not a pretty sight. To many people have borrowed to much money.

ukbondraider

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz :rolleyes:

Weve just had a 2 week debate on this already havent we?

ukbondraider

Basically everyone who wants a crash will talk about it to try and persuade people to think ta crash will happen so that they can greedily beneifit. Those that own lots of house will do the opposite.

No one knows.

Its like when people buy shares.

advent1122

I hope there is a crash soon - then we will have no more of the House Price Crash threads.

movieman

Basically everyone who wants a crash will talk about it to try and persuade people to think ta crash will happen so that they can greedily beneifit

What's 'greedy' about believing that someone on an average salary should be able to buy an average house? They can in much of the world, why shouldn't they be able to do so in Britain?

What's so special about this country that we should have to live with the most expensive crap housing on the planet?