Harder to rewrite history than you think Bulls.

undetterred

Does geneer know the secret to the colonels recipe.

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Here's Jonathan in June 08:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSWeP4nYjeo

Yet in 2005 he predicted that house prices would crash. In 2007.

Post 2008, the games open to debate, and in all honesty I don’t much care.

But for the avoidance of doubt, its absolutely crystal clear that the bulls patented timing argument, and their regularly repeated Davis related memes are a load of old toss. Less generous people would simply call them lies.

Particularly if we were to see them again after this thread.

geneer

undetterred wrote: »

Does geneer know the secret to the colonels recipe.

Geneer flips burgers.
Geneer tends to post at lunch.
Geneer didn't buy in 2001.

Gotta say chaps, as far as digs go, I'd have expected better.
Pimpernels mum has got more life in here than those not so viscious "barbs"

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Jonathan said this in late 2010:

Average prices topped out in early Summer at c 10% below the all-time peak of late 2007. Prices have been falling since and soon they will go negative, year-on-year. Prices will likely plummet over the next couple of years – as we said they would before Crash #1 and repeatedly since. We said that prices would fall 40-50% over a few years. We remain on course for that forecast to be proven accurate.

http://www.psinvestors.co.uk/blog/2010/12/2011-house-price-thoughts-predictions-and-strategies-for-uk-property-investor/

Yet in 2005 he predicted that house prices would crash. In 2007.

Post 2008, the games open to debate, and in all honesty I don’t much care.

But for the avoidance of doubt, its absolutely crystal clear that the bulls patented timing argument, and their regularly repeated Davis related memes are a load of old toss. Less generous people would simply call them lies.

Particularly if we were to see them again after this thread.

Pimperne1

Did you ever wonder why FP, if he was predicting an HPC in 2007, STRd in 2002?


http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=6705&st=20

Pimperne1

In 2005 FP predicted that 2008 would be the best time to buy as prices would be 30%-40% lower than summer 2004 prices.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=5948&st=8

According to Nationwide the average house price in June 2004 was £151,524 - how do you think he did?

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

In 2005 FP predicted that 2008 would be the best time to buy as prices would be 30%-40% lower than summer 2004 prices.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=5948&st=8

According to Nationwide the average house price in June 2004 was £151,524 - how do you think he did?

Yet in 2005 he predicted that house prices would crash. In 2007.

Post 2008, the games open to debate, and in all honesty I don’t much care.

But for the avoidance of doubt, its absolutely crystal clear that the bulls patented timing argument, and their regularly repeated Davis related memes are a load of old toss. Less generous people would simply call them lies.

Particularly if we were to see them again after this thread.

Rinoa

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Did you ever wonder why FP, if he was predicting an HPC in 2007, STRd in 2002?


http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=6705&st=20

Hmmm, so JD himself admits to having STR'd in 2002, thereby exposing geneer's assertion that he didn't to be 100% inaccurate.

I think we're done here.

geneer

Rinoa wrote: »

Hmmm, so JD himself admits to having STR'd in 2002, thereby exposing geneer's assertion that he didn't to be 100% inaccurate.

I think we're done here.

Please point out exactly where I said he didn't.

Yep.

I think we are done here.

Anyhow, now were getting somewhere.

JD sold his house in 2002.

Since then houe went up about 5-10% - I am not in the slightest bothered by that as we made 100% on the original 1994 purchase.

Doesn't sound like a loss to me.

In 2005 JD predicted that house prices would crash in 2007.

His opinoin was that house prices would crash 30 to 40% but that
"as you say no-one knows but if there's any logic this will happen".

Hmmmmmmm.
If I had to consider the above objectively there are two very important things he nailed.

1: The timing of the crash.
2: That there would be a crash.

As opposed to, say, predicting, in september 2007, that a crash was unlikely.

Or indeed predicting a soft landing every year since 2002, and looking on confused as banks decided to push it until the wheels came off.

On balance, JD has it.

Pimperne1

geneer wrote: »

Please point out exactly where I said he didn't.

Yep.

I think we are done here.


So we now have two proven facts.
JD sold his house in 2002.
In 2005 JD predicted that house prices would crash in 2007.

Does this count as a prediction on 3 Aug 06:

"I tell you now, buyers will pull out immediately; the market will die going into winter and we will see negative movement by the year end. Finally the HPI is dead. Long live the HPD".

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=33519&st=69