This forum isn't the same anymore

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes, I see what you mean.....

Rather thought you might agree.

Clearly easier than correlating your statement that "the bulls won"
with your earlier admission that the recent crash was indeed as significant as the 90's crash yet occured over just 1/5 of the time.


Have to say though, given my apparent position as "irrelevant bear" you bulls don't half like to spend a good chunk of your time taking exception to my clear and logical arguments. Which naturally you are unable to discredit or dispute and of course end up spitting the dummy over.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Being a bear means never having to ever confront the fact you took a poor decision.

So what happens if your a "bear" that has a mortgage on a house, and can just see the absolutel stupidty levels that the market was allowed to go to?

chewmylegoff

geneer wrote: »

So what you really mean to pebble dash the board with is the statement house prices didn't crash up your street.
Do please try to be clear sibley, or other posters will just think your a nutter.

Which of course is both uninteresting and somewhat stereotypical as far as the bulls go.

Sibley's house is actually the only genuine member of the 70% club, having fallen in value by the amount simply because he bought it. Luckily for him he can pretend that it didn't fall in value by never selling it, after all market price is defined as the price at which a willing seller will sell (nevermind the price someone is willing to pay).

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

the most accurate poster here is Hamish, who has called all aspects of the housing market extremely accurately.

Well yes, I can be just as right.

The housing market will rise.

The housing market will stagnate.

Now, what can we take from these 2 predictions of Hamish's? Well, he'll tell you it DID rise. In Scotland.

Stagnation is anything, it seems, from 0% to -6%. Hamish, bizzarely, is right again. As it's not fallen over 6%, it's stagnation, and Hamish waves his winner flag once more.

So Hamish is right on both counts. The market rose, AND the market stagnated. Bizzarely, both predictions count, and both win as he's managed to isolate areas and change some meanings. Such as stagnaton last year HAD to be looked at only year on year. Now, you can look at it month on month. The rules have been re-written.

Another one. Houses can be undervalued, but can never be overvalued. Supply and demand means house prices can never be overvalued. However, they can be undervalued, and supply and demand doesn't count here.

I could go on.

A crash isn't a crash unless it's over 25%, apparently. Unless it's gold / silver. Then it's a crash at 3% off peak price.

Seems I did go on.

Suffice to say, no ones been right. However, if you predict nearly every outcome, you are, statistically, more likely to be correct.

Who was it in 2007 stating the market would not fall back? Oh. Hamish. The master. At least he actually did put his money where his mouth is on that prediction and bought a house at peak. For all his other predictions and beliefs, he won't put a single penny behind them and buy a BTL.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well yes, I can be just as right.

The housing market will rise.

The housing market will stagnate.

Now, what can we take from these 2 predictions of Hamish's? Well, he'll tell you it DID rise. In Scotland.

Stagnation is anything, it seems, from 0% to -6%. Hamish, bizzarely, is right again. As it's not fallen over 6%, it's stagnation, and Hamish waves his winner flag once more.

So Hamish is right on both counts. The market rose, AND the market stagnated. Bizzarely, both predictions count, and both win as he's managed to isolate areas and change some meanings. Such as stagnaton last year HAD to be looked at only year on year. Now, you can look at it month on month. The rules have been re-written.

Another one. Houses can be undervalued, but can never be overvalued. Supply and demand means house prices can never be overvalued. However, they can be undervalued, and supply and demand doesn't count here.

I could go on.

A crash isn't a crash unless it's over 25%, apparently. Unless it's gold / silver. Then it's a crash at 3% off peak price.

Seems I did go on.

Suffice to say, no ones been right. However, if you predict nearly every outcome, you are, statistically, more likely to be correct.

Who was it in 2007 stating the market would not fall back? Oh. Hamish. The master.

So basically in the wake of the undeniable crash, and the realisation that the correction is likely to continue for some time (even if just in real terms) its come down to meaningless semantic games,
framing arguments in carefully constrained and pointless ways,
or embittered attempts to engage in dance offs over the contents of ones wallets (imaginary or otherwise).

Sounds about right.

Procrastinator333

julieq wrote: »

Incidentally I was reacting to suggestions in this thread that renting was not clearly more expensive than buying because of other costs.

Funny that. There was no comment on this thread from anyone suggesting renting was the cheaper lifetime option at the point you posted your comment. Like I said, easy to argue when you just make up what the other person has said.

StevieJ

chewmylegoff wrote: »

P.s. Drinking on a Sunday is vulgar.

Not if you are a United fan, or Woves for that matter :beer: I bet you are happy today LJ.

JanCee

This forum isn't the same anymore - this forum is exactly the same, it's like bl00dy groundhog day on here most of the time. Same old arguments, same old sparring partners.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The housing market will rise.

The housing market will stagnate.

Now, what can we take from these 2 predictions of Hamish's? Well, he'll tell you it DID rise. In Scotland.

Hold on there Graham.

I've quite clearly stated my annual predictions for the last two years, and I've been incredibly close, and certainly far closer than any of the bears.

All there in black and white, a year in advance.

Stagnation is anything, it seems, from 0% to -6%. Hamish, bizzarely, is right again. As it's not fallen over 6%, it's stagnation, and Hamish waves his winner flag once more.

Don't be an idiot. Negative 6% would be outside of stagnation.

I would count stagnation as being plus or minus 3 percent or so.

Another one. Houses can be undervalued, but can never be overvalued. Supply and demand means house prices can never be overvalued. However, they can be undervalued, and supply and demand doesn't count here.

No Graham, I said house prices can never be under priced or over priced. The actual price they sell for is the price they're worth.

You're the one that changed it to "valued".

I could go on.

A crash isn't a crash unless it's over 25%, apparently. Unless it's gold / silver. Then it's a crash at 3% off peak price.

Seems I did go on.

And on, and on, and on, and on..... Always putting words in my mouth and arguing with them. Gusess that's what happens when you can't argue with what I actually said instead....

Anyway, silver fell 30% from peak, not 3%. I'd say that's a crash. And I've never denied there was a crash in housing, which fell 23%, before recovering half those losses.

But what is also clear is that because the recovery was so fast, rents have soared, and most mortgage holders have taken advantage of once-in-a-lifetime low rates, there has now been no loss to most homeowners from buying even at peak, and no benefit to non-owners to waiting.

Remember Graham, time is the enemy of housing bears....

Who was it in 2007 stating the market would not fall back? Oh. Hamish. The master..

Graham, it's a sign of your desperation that you have to lie about what I've said.

Please refer me to any post I made here or hpc in 2007 saying house prices would not fall.

You can't.

Because I didn't.

chewmylegoff

THE_SLUMRAT_GHUOLS wrote: »

Well if the ghuols had any decent or moral fibre in their miserable bodies they would acknowledge that both Sibley have been bang on the money with their predictions. So much so when they spoke the truth on the hpc cesspit they were banned. That action by the masters of the ghuols speak all you need to know about who won and who lost.

Hiiii Sibley!