Nationwide: House Prices fall again

Really2

DervProf wrote: »

have managed to twist the thread around and somehow tried to make Brit look foolish.

TBF my two points on spring bounce were both not to make brit look foolish they were to point out if there was such a price increase every spring it would be ironed out in Seasonal adjustments.
Also it refers to the housing market picking up (transactions) and provided evidence when questioned. (I think I have for the two previous years also).
So although I like a good debate I do like Logic and facts applied to it.
They are

1)Prices have fallen 0.2% Seasonally adjusted
2) Prices have increased near £1K nominally (indicating that prices usualy increase this time of year a bit as they have adjusted the rise out)
3) Sales increase in spring (indicating a bounce in the market, Sales drop over winter and pick up in spring)

Batchy

Pete111 wrote: »

Hmm nice spin Brit - However, I can't help but notice that if you look at the raw numbers presented then:

1) 2011 has shown 4k+ of average HPI since Jan
2) Prices are 1k higher than in March 2010
3) Though prices are below the recent June 2011 'peak', they have increasing month by month for the last 3 months
4) Average Prices are 14k higher than 2 years ago.

That said, this looks suspiciously like bumping along the bottom to me - I expect more slight ups and downs throughout the year with London / the SE having the best ratio of rises to falls.

Alternatively - House prices only ever rise ...Timber!!...BTL are scum... We're all doomed etc etc

Add into that quoted above that mortgages are now less favourable than they were when prices were suggesting they were bouncing back up 9 months ago.

If I try to get what I got with a 15% deposit now from the same provider, I would need 25% now to get close. And its still not as good!

Batchy

interestingly BTL mortgages are now down to 20% deposits too... this should probably liven the market up, and kick start the FTBers into doing something!

In 12 months should have saved up enough for my first BTL! :-) Happy days!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

DervProf wrote: »

tried to make Brit look foolish.

Brit needs no help in that department.

gagahouse

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/upload/documents/HPI_Report_Mar_11_db10pv4.pdf

LandReg March out early

-1.1% MoM, -2.3% YoY

Blacklight

Anyone gullible enough to believe that 50% discounts on house prices would materialise must have reached the conclusion that they aren't going to bag a bargain at the expanse of some hard working family by now.

nicko33

Blacklight wrote: »

they aren't going to bag a bargain at the expanse of some hard working family by now.

might they get a bargain from a lazy family? or single person (hard-working or otherwise)?

Losing_the_way

gagahouse wrote: »

http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/upload/documents/HPI_Report_Mar_11_db10pv4.pdf

LandReg March out early

-1.1% MoM, -2.3% YoY

I notice from those figures that even London has moved back.:huh:

geneer

Pete111 wrote: »

Erm, because in his second post he segued (seamlessly I might add) into claims that this represented the definite and obvious beginning of the next leg down?

Other than that it was just raw data...

So the Bulls prefer analysis and context rather than furiously thrashing themselves to raw positive data then?

Cos discussions about clear statistical skew, and failing FTB markets........doesn't happen all that much.

geneer

thriftychap wrote: »

STAGNATION, STAGNATION, STAGNATION.

Get used to it, it will remain like this for a while!

Lets be clear.

Real stagnation (i.e. houseprices only keeping up with inflation) is ultimately a win for the bulls.

Real falls is of course more of a win for the bears.

Lets keep an eye out for those slippery bulls continued efforts to claim the real falls fall back position.