Bullish Bulls have been calling the "Soft Landing" every year since 2002.

geneer

Sibley wrote: »

I got to that stage a while back.

She keeps talking like there has been a crash. It that was true why is she still living in a bedsit?

Come now simpley. Lets not pretend that you engage anybody in debate.

geneer

RenovationMan wrote: »

From Financial Times, definition of a soft landing:

"Soft landing

When an economy that has recorded a period of very rapid growth slows down gradually, without experiencing the negative effects of a more abrupt reversal."

With the housing market we has a sustained period of rapid growth followed by a sharp fall, then partian recovery, stagnation and now we seem to be in a period of gradual falls.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php

I guess the question to be answered are what denotes a 'soft landing'. I would imagine it means something different to everyone. To someone like myself who bought his first house in 1995 and saw the value of that property increase in value by 350% and the value of my subsequent property, bought in 2002, to increase in value by 39% I would say that the level that property values are at today would denote a 'soft landing'. I have not suffered an 'abrupt reversal'.

For those who bought closer to the sharp fall in 2007, the housing market has not had anything like a soft landing because they certainly have suffered an 'abrupt reversal'.

I didnt 'call' a soft landing for the housing market, but with the data we have to date, that seems to be what I have had.

Just another itteration of a rather bogus argument.

So I'll reitterate the rather obvious comparison.

According to Renovation man, a plane might take off from ground level, reach 10,000 feet, have its engines fail and then naturally come back to ground level in the inevitable fashion.

However, given that the plane finished at the same level it started, why, for the passengers of that plane its almost as if there has been no ascent and no crash. So soft landing it is.



:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Utter twaddle.

Sibley

Prices Are Droping Dwayne Dibley

Check the newspaper today and come back ok.

System

RenovationMan wrote: »

How does your crash-landing example relate to the real-world example of my own personal 'soft-landing'?

I assume you feel that in my case, the 'airplane' is still mid-flight and so it could crash, but then like many most aircraft voyages it might have a successful landing. I dont have your mystical abilities to see into the future, hence why my post stated that it used data that we had 'to date'.

However, if I had been calling a 'soft landing' since 2002 I would have been correct, because between 2002 and Today, my own property investments have had either gains or a soft landing.

Isn't the whole issue that the "soft landing" analogy, especially when applied to airplanes, is utterly moronic?

geneer

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Isn't the whole issue that the "soft landing" analogy, especially when applied to airplanes, is utterly moronic?

Not as moronic as RVs "personal soft landing" argument.

Pimperne1

RenovationMan wrote: »

What the Geneer doesnt seem to understand when he taunts home owners about house price dips is that once you enter the market you are usually in it until you either move into sheltered retirement accomodation, nursing home or die. Movement in the markets are very transitory over this sort of timeframe.

To use Geneers plane ride analogy, the person gets onto the plane and while they might feel some turbulance on the way (recessions and such), the vast majority will be on the flight for 30,40,50 or more years before 'landing' in the nursing home or coffin.

Those who 'crash' are the ones who lose their homes for one reason or another - usually financial and TBH with the bankruptcy laws as they are even these people do not have to wait very long before their next 'flight'.

How Geneer would apply his 'airplane crash' to myself is unknown because I'm still on the plane and enjoying an exciting bit of turbulance at the corrent time.

Stopped reading after "What Geneer doesn't seem to understand". I've got to be out by 10 tonight.

geneer

RenovationMan wrote: »

Why not pick it apart then? Should be relatively easy if it is so moronic, surely?

Ok.

You've drawn a straight line between two arbitrary points and asserted that effectively theres been no crash for you personally, regardless of whats happened inbetween.

Putting aside the meaningless nature of the same, I've made apt comparison to an airplane. It might start at the same level, and finish at the same level, but a soft landing there has not been.
In other words, it crashed, no matter what you say. Doh!

Rather too obvious for words I would have thought.

The fact remains that you could have sold your house in 2007 for more than you could sell it for now.

That may not be an issue to you, and thats fair enough.
But the "theres been no crash for me" chat is intellectually dishonest, and certainly no better than the type of "if you ignore the crash theres been no crash" logic torturing our bullish community have been prone to since mid 2009.

wotsthat

Has the medication trolley just come round?

ess0two

wotsthat wrote: »

Has the medication trolley just come round?

Geneer is having first pick,wait yer turn.

Pimperne1

RenovationMan wrote: »

I stopped reading after 'Pimpernel1', nothing worth reading ever follows that word.

http://www.creditcrunch.co.uk/forum/topic/9277-how-the-bulls-called-a-soft-landing-every-year-since-2002/page__st__26__gopid__154673#entry154673
:rotfl: