Bullish Bulls have been calling the "Soft Landing" every year since 2002.

geneer

http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/thread/102721.aspx

I have found the new graph for the front of www.hpc











YOU ARE HERE NOW !!! (Yep stability,stability,stability)







It is now clear as we enter 2006 and a second year of house prices growth of between 1-5% (depending on region)..............all those who predicted that a house price crash began in summer 2004 ...........have been proved totally and utterly wrong.
Our friends at HPC made fundamental errors in wrongly predicting a HPC for so many years. They forgot the basics of economics
low & stable interest rates + growing economy + high employment ALWAYS = NO HPC
They forgot the laws of supply and demand.
They forgot to have the humility to listen to the experts from SP who know whats happening on the street.
However the biggest single mistake all at HPC made was confusing a rapid inevitable slow down in house price inflation / growth with a HPC they are 2 VERY different things.
They told us a HPC was "inevitable" and sadly many FTB listened to them and postponed buying in 2004,and 2005 waiting for a HPC that would never arrive.
Of course all us "bulls" could have told them that, alas.....as it became obvious to the vested interest bosses at HPC there would be no crash....they banned the bulls, set up troll forums, vetted all posts that explained why there would be no HPC and cracked down on all dissent and free speech at www.hpc any one who dared to tell the truth that the HPC was not happening was quietly disposed off .
The more it became obvious there was no hpc the more controls on free speech and property market discussion www.hpc introduced (there was a direct correllation).
The one thing that all totalitarean organizations / states fear the most is the truth.The truth that there was no hpc ................was bitterly feared by the mods and bosses at HPC because if the ordinary innocent members found out the HPC that they had been "promised" as "inevitable" was not happening and was just a fantasy of www.hpc spin they would turn on their masters and the site would collapse from within.......hence all these new controls on members activity / speech were introduced in 2005.
Why was none of this total control of posts on www.hpc not necessary in 2004 early 2005 ?????? BECAUSE in those days the people at www.hpc GENUINELY believed there would be a HPC and welcomed debating with bulls.......now the HPC has been cancelled all dissent must be crushed.....YEP the senior management do not want the ordinary members to know that they called the market wrong and all the evidence that shows there willl be no HPC over the next 5 years is suppressed using the new controls above.

There was no HPC in 2003,2004,2005, and there will be no HPC in 2006, 2007,2008 etc...

Person A............rents for 25 years owns nothing.
Person B............pays mortgage for 25 years owns house
Long term renters ALWAYS lose......Long term mortgage payers ALWAYS win.
as for the STR of 2003 like poor old Dr Bubb )))).........looks like he will be waiting for a few more years for his cruise control price drops )))))))))
To our friends at HPC we wish you well and have a (another) happy renting year "playing it safe" paying of your landlords mortgage and we hope one day your forum will too enjoy the free speech your landlords enjoy here at SP.
Hope that Helps.
Property Guru

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Too funny.

geneer

http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/thread/114654.aspx

VICTORY !!!! VICTORY !!! IT WAS THE BULLS WOT WON IT !!!!
The management of www.hpc knowing the game is up as it becomes self evident to all that there has been a soft landing and the HPC has been cancelled, they have sold out, as each month goes on the www.hpc website looks even more silly as they enter their 4th year of saying "the market is crashing now".
Before the site becomes a complete laughing stock the management have bailed out knowing as more time passed the less credibility and value the site would have as it is virtually clear to everyone there is no house price crash.
REJOICE REJOICE THE www.hpc officially accepts there is a SOFT LANDING.
Hope thats Helps.
PG

Heh heh heh.

geneer

julieq wrote: »

Geneer, you haven't produced any evidence at all that shows any bull here was predicting a soft landing.

Any bull here you say. Here as in this very actual thread?

What about our pal Rinoa (AKA HPC/SINGINGPIGS COLUMBO)
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=42660782&postcount=76

This is just the market that property professionals want Doc. A soft landing after many years of HPI in which most of the population made a 50% tax free windfall on their homes. (Sorry you missed out)
Steady as she goes is welcome and acceptable.
Property professionals make very substantial profits boom or no boom.

http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/10/119669/ShowThread.aspx



Good old Hamish will know both PG and Columbo quite well.
As well many of the former HPCers.

:T

julieq

Geneer, you declared the timeframe, you started in 2002.

It's irrelevant what *some* people predicted anyway. You can find a whole range of predictions from crash to stagnation to inflation for that period. There is no general case prediction. I have no idea what you're attempting to prove anyway apart from some people were wrong. Lots of people were wrong, but in terms of impact after being wrong, you'd have difficulty getting more serious than calling reductions year on year when there was rampant HPI. Anyone for a 50% real terms fall?

The only important number is the differential between the date you declare is the start of an important period and now. Now oddly enough the year you chose appears to be the year you decided to sit out the market and wait for falls, which in hindsight was a life changingly disastrous decision.

Personally I'm sitting in a mortgage free house in the SE bought in the early 1990s, and about to pop out into a large and pleasant mortgage free garden for a spot of mortgage free gardening and a mortgage free barbecue. My outcome is fine, my decisions were fine, my dealings with the housing market don't need timing or trump cards. Like most people my view of housing is that it's somewhere to live and I'd never have gambled that on (for example) a STR strategy even were I certain there would be a big fall in prices. Please do enjoy any feeling of superiority you have, I just hope it's good value in return for your monthly rental outlay.

I certainly didn't sit around in the early 2000s obsessing about house prices and whether or not there would be a soft landing, and I only started posting here when I saw seriously stupid projections being portrayed as fact and felt it was worth putting a slightly shrewder slant on things total financial numpties were busily explaining were inevitable - prior to that I was putting recipes onto the old style board and giving cooking tips. I remember one laughable post from someone claiming that making this board members only would cost MSE members tens of thousands of pounds, where in reality anyone relying on big falls has been shafted big time. Including your good self, but you did it to yourself, and I guess that's what really hurts isn't it? I don't actually know how you'd define a soft landing anyway, but if it's stagnation after a period of rises, we're in one.

geneer

julieq wrote: »

Geneer, you declared the timeframe, you started in 2002.

Then progressed into 2003, then into 2004, then into 2005 etc.
I gave no particular significance to any date.
It was of course yourself compelled to compare house prices between 2002 and 2011, rather than say 2004 to 2011.
Or indeed 2007 to 2011.
None of which are relevant to my original point.

julieq wrote: »

It's irrelevant what *some* people predicted anyway. You can find a whole range of predictions from crash to stagnation to inflation for that period. There is no general case prediction. I have no idea what you're attempting to prove anyway apart from some people were wrong. Lots of people were wrong, but in terms of impact after being wrong, you'd have difficulty getting more serious than calling reductions year on year when there was rampant HPI. Anyone for a 50% real terms fall?

Of course you could be more serious than that.
You could have consistently maintained that there would never be a crash at all.

julieq wrote: »

The only important number is the differential between the date you declare is the start of an important period and now. Now oddly enough the year you chose appears to be the year you decided to sit out the market and wait for falls, which in hindsight was a life changingly disastrous decision.

Sorry, when did I declare 2002 was important?
Yes, 2006 was important, in as much as that it was the year before the house price crash. Which in hindsight was actually a fairly good decisions thanks.

But if I'm not mistaken you appear to be suggesting that "timing" is very important factor Julieq.

In which case, I'd direct you to my OP.

julieq wrote: »

Personally I'm sitting in a mortgage free house in the SE bought in the early 1990s, and about to pop out into a large and pleasant mortgage free garden for a spot of mortgage free gardening and a mortgage free barbecue. My outcome is fine, my decisions were fine, my dealings with the housing market don't need timing or trump cards. Like most people my view of housing is that it's somewhere to live and I'd never have gambled that on (for example) a STR strategy even were I certain there would be a big fall in prices. Please do enjoy any feeling of superiority you have, I just hope it's good value in return for your monthly rental outlay.

I certainly didn't sit around in the early 2000s obsessing about house prices and whether or not there would be a soft landing, and I only started posting here when I saw seriously stupid projections being portrayed as fact and felt it was worth putting a slightly shrewder slant on things total financial numpties were busily explaining were inevitable - prior to that I was putting recipes onto the old style board and giving cooking tips. I remember one laughable post from someone claiming that making this board members only would cost MSE members tens of thousands of pounds, where in reality anyone relying on big falls has been shafted big time

Thats nice dear. Tell us more completely unrelated information about you.

julieq wrote: »

Including your good self, but you did it to yourself, and I guess that's what really hurts isn't it?

Does it? Has it?
News to me Jules.

julieq wrote: »

I don't actually know how you'd define a soft landing anyway, but if it's stagnation after a period of rises, we're in one.

No. You're describing "stagnation".

The soft landing happens without (and indeed in place of) a correction.

The ship has sailed on that one I'm afraid.

But maybe if you decide to call it a "teapot" yeah? :cool:

geneer

Incidentally you appear to have rather glossed over that fact that the bull/bear/soft landing battle lines you repeatedly claimed didn't exist have been rather decisively been demonstrated.

Just wanted to mention that, as you seemed to consider it very important for quite a number of posts, before declaring it irrelevant and stating that the only important thing was related to "timing" the market.:rotfl:

Have to ask, did you not notice how my OP cunningly pre-empted this inevitable scrabble for a specific fall back position?
Gosh, its almost as if that was the whole point eh.



You've also failed to link those newspaper articles quoting "bears" calling 70% falls. Which was a shocker, let me tell you.

chucky

julieq wrote: »

Geneer, you declared the timeframe, you started in 2002.

wow - waiting to buy since 2002, that's a lot of rent...

that's the least of his worries, how much have prices risen since his mistake in 2002?

julieq

God Geneer, do you really need me to search for links to people declaring 70% falls? Have a word with Macaque, and he ACTUALLY posts in here. And you invented the term "bullish bull", it's in your thread title. Check it for yourself. A bullish bull is presumably, well, a bull who errs on the bullish side.

For the rest, you can find a range of predictions of all flavours here:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/#predictions

Actually if 2002 wasn't important and you just chose it at random, then choose another date. And why not define a soft landing too, so we can decide what is a rise followed by slowing and stagnation and what is a soft landing.

And in the meantime, go and find me saying anywhere that there wasn't going to be a crash pre-crash, or suggesting there wasn't a major correction in prices.

However what I am specifically saying now is there isn't likely to be another sustained correction in the immediate future, which I'll qualify by saying is over a 5 year minimum period, and I expect increases within 18 months to 2 years as the economy recovers on the basis of FTBs getting to the point where they can purchase and competing with investors for what is available. Unless there is an event external to the UK economy (comet strike, serious terrorist attack, major war) which changes the world economy drastically.

How's that for something to attack?

geneer

julieq wrote: »

God Geneer, do you really need me to search for links to people declaring 70% falls?

Actually julie I want you to show me where bears were declaring 70% falls in newspaper articles.
You seemed to suggest it would be very easy.

julieq wrote: »

A bullish bull is presumably, well, a bull who errs on the bullish side.

In other words a bull.

julieq wrote: »

For the rest, you can find a range of predictions of all flavours here:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/#predictions

A range of predictions Jules. I thought bears were a single hive mind? Can't help but notice that housepricrcrash.co.uk is not a newspaper.

julieq wrote: »

Actually if 2002 wasn't important and you just chose it at random, then choose another date.

Why? :cool:

julieq wrote: »

And why not define a soft landing too, so we can decide what is a rise followed by slowing and stagnation and what is a soft landing.

Do I need to define it yet again?
Ok.:)

A soft landing is a period of stagnation which occours at the top of an asset bubble instead of a correction.

For absolute clarity "stagnation" after a correction is called "stagnation".

julieq wrote: »

And in the meantime, go and find me saying anywhere that there wasn't going to be a crash pre-crash, or suggesting there wasn't a major correction in prices.

Why? I'm not that interested in what you might have predicted.
And indeed have never mentioned it.

Can't help but notice that you've decided no longer to speak for "all bulls".

Strange. It seemed very important to you previously. :rotfl:

julieq wrote: »

However what I am specifically saying now is there isn't likely to be another sustained correction in the immediate future, which I'll qualify by saying is over a 5 year minimum period, and I expect increases within 18 months to 2 years as the economy recovers on the basis of FTBs getting to the point where they can purchase and competing with investors for what is available. Unless there is an event external to the UK economy (comet strike, serious terrorist attack, major war) which changes the world economy drastically.

How's that for something to attack?

Thats nice Julieq.
But no one asked.

julieq

OK geneer, let's accept your definition of stagnation.

So if a market goes up several hundred percent, then settles within a band within 10% of the peak, that would be a soft landing by your definition I guess?

You haven't really explained why this is important to you anyway. I'd love to know why you think why it's a big deal in the first place.

Actually I know why, it's because you have a gaping psychological scar around your abject failure to profit from what you thought in 2002 was going to be an imminent crash. And you desperately need to be right about just one thing.

If it makes you feel better, I'm perfectly happy to tell you I called a soft landing every year back to the stone age. I'm perfectly happy to tell you I speak for all bulls and we all think precisely alike - none of it is true obviously, but I'll gladly say it if you like, it's really of no importance to me whatsoever, neither is it of importance that Capital Economics were calling big falls year in year out. The actual outcome has happened now, and has superseded past predictions.

None of that is going to change the fact that you gambled on property and lost big time.

And no, I don't do car washes.