Japan crisis - the worlds economic outlook?

ninky_2

Conrad wrote: »

"much of Chris Busby's work is self-published and difficult to access; he seems mainly to avoid publication in the recognised scientific literature, which presents difficulties for a proper review of the evidence underlying his conclusions.".[

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Busby




Busby’s CV exposed
Although superficially impressive to the gullible and the naive, his CV conveys a facade of scientific respectability that is built on sand. Here are some key points:
(1) BSc Chemistry (London), PhD Chemical Physics (Kent). Failed to complete his first PhD project – an early indication of his intellectual shortcomings.

http://junksciencewatch.wordpress.com/



Busby would have you believe that almost every scientist and doctor in the world is incompetent, involved in a gigantic cover-up, or complacent about the health of their families and friends. Read on and see if YOU believe him….

what are the qualifications of the person doing the character assassination on his cv and why are they bothering? i'd rather see an attack on his argument - a lot of which makes sense tbf - than some spurious nonsense about how he didn't finish his first phd (not a unique event amongst scientists) and how someone he knows has done x,y,z and may have influenced him getting a post (again hardly a unique event).

the stuff about internal radiation and the lack of safe levels makes complete sense.

why do you say that for busby to be right every other doctor would have to be wrong? where are all these medical doctors who have been asked their opinion and what are they basing it on? most nuclear experts are in the employ of the nuclear industry. most research into the impact of nuclear accidents is funded by the nuclear industry.

look we could say we could all get hit by a bus tomorrow so why worry about it. a lot of heavy smokers employ a similar logic.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Japan is officially in a new recession after first quarter 2011 GDP came in at an annualized rate of -3.7%.
Not only did the GDP figure substantially miss the -2.0% level expected by economists, but it followed a 3.0% GDP drop in the fourth quarter of 2010 (a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth).
Furthermore, it marked the largest quarterly decline since a record 18.3% contraction in the first quarter of 2009.
The severity of Japan’s decline in GDP illustrates the damaging effects of the March earthquakes and tsunami that caused the worst global nuclear crisis since Chernobyl in 1986.

......................

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Tokyo — Local officials in north-eastern Japan said yesterday they had found high levels of radioactive substances in a sample of pasture grass.
Miyagi prefecture officials detected 1,530 becquerels of radioactive caesium per kilogram in a sample collected a week ago from a farm run by the town of Marumori, some 60 kilometres north of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The figure was more than five times the legal limit of 300 becquerels.

......................

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Japanese officials recently raised the severity of the nuclear power plant incident to level 7, the highest level on the international scale and comparable only to the Chernobyl incident 25 years ago, says Ken Buesseler, a chemical oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. “When it comes to the oceans, however,” says Buesseler, “the impact of Fukushima exceeds Chernobyl.” Radionuclides in seawater have been reported from the Fukushima plant’s discharge canals, from coastal waters five to ten kilometres south of the plant, and from 30 kilometres offshore. “Levels of some radionuclides are at least an order of magnitude higher than the highest levels in 1986 in the Baltic and Black Seas, the two ocean water bodies closest to Chernobyl,” says Buesseler.
He has been awarded a rapid-response grant from the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Division of Ocean Sciences to establish baseline concentrations of several radionuclides in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. “Finding this information early on is key to understanding the severity of the releases and related public health issues,” says Buesseler.
He and colleagues will establish a baseline radionuclide data set for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, using an east-to-west network of sampling stations where the ability to retrieve ocean water samples already exists.

.......................

1984ReturnsForReal_2

Japan's 11 March mega-quake shifted the ocean floor sideways by more than 20m (65ft), according one instrument placed on the seabed off the nation's coast.
This direct measurement exceeds the displacement suggested by some models built only from data gathered on land.

& 3m up (the 3m was what they thought happened)........

pwllbwdr

ninky wrote: »

than some spurious nonsense about how he didn't finish his first phd (not a unique event amongst scientists) and how someone he knows has done x,y,z and may have influenced him getting a post (again hardly a unique event).

There is intense competition for funding for PhDs. I'd be rather surprised if it were common for someone who failed to complete a PhD would easily be given a second bite.

Don't forget, the perceived failure of an experiment, or even a series of experiments, is not a reason not to complete a PhD. A science PhD can quite legitimately report negative findings.

chewmylegoff

ninky wrote: »

it's...SNIP..it is perfectly plausible there is a considerable cover up going on over some of the events at fukushima. history has revealed that this is precisely the sort of crisis event at which such cover ups occur.

Well yes, but there is a difference between plausible but outlandish theories, and ludicrous conspiracies.

I tend to worship at the altar of occam's razor. Especially when a government of a developed nation with a free press is involved. Cover ups require a level of restriction of information which seems to be largely beyond the abilities of our politicians who can't even stick points for speeding on their wife's licence without someone finding out, let alone get away with a visit to hampstead heath.

ninky_2

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Well yes, but there is a difference between plausible but outlandish theories, and ludicrous conspiracies.

I tend to worship at the altar of occam's razor. Especially when a government of a developed nation with a free press is involved. Cover ups require a level of restriction of information which seems to be largely beyond the abilities of our politicians who can't even stick points for speeding on their wife's licence without someone finding out, let alone get away with a visit to hampstead heath.

the 'truth' also requires a level of access to information - the level of which (given the subject matter) it is not easy to obtain.

tepco do not have a good track record.

when i say a cover up is plausible i really doubt that the prime minister has a fully researched dossier revealing millions will die but is hiding it from the world. however i think it is quite likely that there is no one being properly funded to give us the truth or piece it all together from a non nuclear industry standpoint.

it's a bit like cigarettes and the tobacco industry. there was a massive cover up (or at least confusion and bluster generated by vested interests) for years - and even now i find it shocking that there are no penalties for smoking whilst pregnant or around children when the science shows that is tantamount to child abuse.

it is quite possilbe that one particle of cesium inhaled into your lungs could cause lung cancer just as a single strand of asbestos can cause fatal disease. busby (and others) seem to be right in saying a highly radioactive particle sat constantly and directly on human tissue is likely to lead to cancerous changes in the surrounding cells - it is different to getting external exposure as with an xray.

btw - how is busby's assertion that internal radiation (or specific longterm exposure of a particular cluster of cells) should be considered differently to external radiation (entire body exposure for a briefer period) not compatible with occams razor?

Poshbird

Conrad wrote: »

Why will it CERTAINLY be more than 4000?

How many will it be - you mentioned 25m?

Please include widely PEER reviewed articles and evidence, not the rantings of a bloke who failed to complete his first PHD, and who no doubt enjoys Thailand as a holiday destination.;)

Who said 25M? Where did that come from?

I said as many experts say, its very hard to guess how many deaths from Chernobyl related illness have resulted around EUROPE alone.

Some estimate its in the millions but certainly more than 4000.

vivatifosi

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Cover ups require a level of restriction of information which seems to be largely beyond the abilities of our politicians who can't even stick points for speeding on their wife's licence without someone finding out, let alone get away with a visit to hampstead heath.

This is something that frustrates me greatly. Thinking back to Chernobyl, not only did it happen in a country where freedom of press was restricted; it also happened at a time when communication - in a pre-internet era - was less easy. There is so much scope now for people to make a logical and reasoned written or verbal attack on the status quo, through Twitter, Wikileaks or whatever, yet people relate to the lowest common denominator of whacky.