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Debate House Prices
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Halifax December 2010 MoM -1.3% QoQ -0.9% YoY -1.6%
Comments
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Let's assume a FTBer is saving £500 per month towards a deposit, and £1000 per month on other living expenses. Inflation is 4%. After 12 months, that £1000 if worth £960. Assuming no increase in income, the savings towards a deposit will drop to £460 per month.
Let's assume that HPI in the meantime is -1.5% per annum. On a £120K property that will mean a decrease in price of £1800. I think that just about makes up for the reduction in monthly savings.
I doubt you're describing a real life situation - £1000 per month isn't much to live on even if you were looking at £500 per month on rent and utilities - leaving £500 a month for all other expenses (food, travel etc). I suppose one could live like a monk and not take any holiday but that would be madness.0 -
that you're clinging to the Halifax numbers desperately??
chucky didn't quote a false statement - that's a fact
I am not clutching at straws. I stated that Halifx's figures show -HPI for 2010. That is a fact, and I wasn't using that fact because I'm desparate. Just because chucky says it, doesn't mean it's true (it obviously does in chucky's mind).30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
you seem to be very excitable today over Halifax house prices - i've never seen you so excited over Nationwide or LR house price numbers... is Halifax the right index then?I am not clutching at straws. I stated that Halifx's figures show -HPI for 2010. That is a fact, and I wasn't using that fact because I'm desparate. Just because chucky says it, doesn't mean it's true (it obviously does in chucky's mind).0 -
I doubt you're describing a real life situation - £1000 per month isn't much to live on even if you were looking at £500 per month on rent and utilities - leaving £500 a month for all other expenses (food, travel etc). I suppose one could live like a monk and not take any holiday but that would be madness.
£500 per month for food and other expenses ? I reckon that's fairly easy to do.
Food £200 per month leaves £300 to play with. Not a life of luxury, obviously. Clutching at straws for a moment, if the potential FTBer is on an average salary, they may well have a little more than £1000 to spend.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »I don't. Just don't see why all of a sudden you are here to tell us that this data isn't smooth enough, and therefore put a slant on your position to tell us the nationwide is what we should look at.
I take it though the YOY fall is still stagnation?
Would a 1.5% rise YOY be stagnation? I doubt it....I doubt we'd see "stagnation" fall out of any of the more bullish mouths
I think you will find the nationwide index you will see me saying stagnation, and on this one... ones positive and ones negative
To someone who has been monitoring the market for the past 5 years ISH... will know, how prices move and where they move from and too.
I have actively for the past 3 vigorously monitored as I was getting to the position to be able to buy.
You will find from Q4 2008 to Q1 2011 there will not actually be a significant difference in asking prices to sold prices of many houses. There will always be some noise, for various different reasons, sometimes a multiple of reasons.
The fact is 2007 prices as a properotion of average income have long gone and will most likely not see them again until bankers get greedy again and dish out 95% mortgages!
We are where we need to be, and in actual asking and sold prices, there is NO volatility. We are seeing noise in the figures which we dont normally see because there are so many few transactions compared to the last 6 years. But the transaction numbers are no so much lower than the historical norm.
We are at the moment in Normality, stability, stagnation, their definitions are not materially different, but I would not consider this annual, I would consider this to be from 2009. We will not see a shock fall, and we are not going to see HPI of 15% again!Plan
1) Get most competitive Lifetime Mortgage (Done)
2) Make healthy savings, spend wisely (Doing)
3) Ensure healthy pension fund - (Doing)
4) Ensure house is nice, suitable, safe, and located - (Done)
5) Keep everyone happy, healthy and entertained (Done, Doing, Going to do)0 -
I doubt you're describing a real life situation - £1000 per month isn't much to live on even if you were looking at £500 per month on rent and utilities - leaving £500 a month for all other expenses (food, travel etc). I suppose one could live like a monk and not take any holiday but that would be madness.
Tell me about it!
Just who ARE these fools who live on a 23k salary a year and don't actually go on holiday.
You are right. It's just not reality.
:doh:0 -
So, Nationwide said 2010 say the average home increased by a small amount, Halifax say that the average price fell by a bit more.
Taking inflation into account, I'd say that the average price of a home fell by about 4% last year.
Strange but those type of falls are more or less what those of a bullish persuasion have been expecting all along to correct any imbalances in the housing market i.e, static nominal and falling real house prices.'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
you seem to be very excitable today over Halifax house prices - i've never seen you so excited over Nationwide or LR house price numbers... is Halifax the right index then?
It's one of the indexes, and I`m hardly excited about it. If you want to think that I am, carry on. In the meantime, I have work to do.
Cue chucky accusing me of bailing out of the discussion.
Sorry, but I must go, I`ll leave you to continue throwing abuse at Graham, I'll be back later to read your comments.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
Strange but those type of falls are more or less what those of a bullish persuasion have been expecting all along to correct any imbalances in the housing market i.e, static nominal and falling real house prices.
Yes, they probably are. Well done to the bulls.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
ta ta, don't let the door hit you on the way out.It's one of the indexes, and I`m hardly excited about it. If you want to think that I am, carry on. In the meantime, I have work to do.
Cue chucky accusing me of bailing out of the discussion.
Sorry, but I must go, I`ll leave you to continue throwing abuse at Graham, I'll be back later to read your comments.
you don't like getting it back - predictable that
btw - who are these bulls?? do they exist??Yes, they probably are. Well done to the bulls.
is the world split into bulls and bears??0
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