Halifax December 2010 MoM -1.3% QoQ -0.9% YoY -1.6%

DervProf

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You appear to be fighting this fall off, saying it's just one index...well so is nationwide, so is the LR.

But they all make up a bigger picture, regardless of how much you try and kick one into the long grass.

And I see the bigger picture as one depicting a gentle fall in property prices. I happen to think that's a good thing, given what happened in the previous decade.

Batchy

One word...

Stagnation!

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The index is what it is.

Regardless.

I also said that last month, after yourself stating I was silly for stating the current prices were volitile. You are now arguing against me saying they are volitile, right after you have said "but they are not smooth". Make mind up time.

You appear to be fighting this fall off, saying it's just one index...well so is nationwide, so is the LR.

But they all make up a bigger picture, regardless of how much you try and kick one into the long grass.

No I am not as I said all indexes will get to the same, I just find the Halifax irratic?

I have already said I expect a 5%-7% fall this year.

You just want an argument as usual Graham.;)

DervProf

Really2 wrote: »

stagnation is more like a battle of wills.

Increases, especially > CPI increases over a long period of time, fuelled by loose lending, is the path to economic problems.

The next generation of FTBers need a pause in HPI. Never ending HPI is not going to happen. Eventually the numbers have to add up, and the debt has to be paid.

Really2

DervProf wrote: »

But what about those who are in work, saving a deposit, with the potential for promotion ?

That is my point on FTB VS owner. Owners are in an identical economy.

Owning in 2010from my perspective (on the other page but you missed it)

Mortgage debt nominal (so real term falls mean nothing as the debt has not increase with inflation), housing cost minimal (not increasing like renters) wages the same.
In the real world renters are being squeezed more than owners, that is kind of my point owners can out perform FTB's at the moment all things being equal.
I can save more than a renter last year as my housing costs never increased.

I am not saying it is great for owners, but it is not great for FTBs either IMHO, stagnation is more like a battle of wills.

chucky

DervProf wrote: »

Taking inflation into account, I'd say that the average price of a home fell by about 4% last year.

ahh you believe in inflation...

DervProf wrote: »

This gives the first time buyer more time to save a larger deposit, so when they finally do take on their first home, they will need to borrow less due to the larger deposit and lower property price.

inflation is wonderful news for FTBs with spending power being reduced trying to save for a deposit...

wonderful logic :eek:

Batchy

To be honest as for Halifax... Does anyone who isnt distressed or desperate use them for a mortgage.

Every repossession I was looking at was a Halifax repo. It doesnt bode good, and to be honest they dont have a big enough market share or good enough rates to even worry about.

I would say most people using them for mortgages would be in the lower half of the house price market. Therefore more volatility.

Prices are falling it appears, but as has been said before this is making it even harder to get a mortgage, so not a good thing for FTBs only CASH BUYERS

A friend of mine, qualified accountant (nearly well in Feb) can only get a mortgage from Halifax with a 20% deposit. No talk of 15% or 10%. I just dont think we should put halifax in the normal market category, it only bases its indices on it own figures, and its own company has basically gone bust and is now goverment backed and run. This company is a failed company effectively.

How can a bank that is in the business of financing people, NOT HAVE ENOUGH FINANCE?... seriously, something is a amiss somewhere.

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

You just want an argument as usual Graham.;)

I don't. Just don't see why all of a sudden you are here to tell us that this data isn't smooth enough, and therefore put a slant on your position to tell us the nationwide is what we should look at.

I take it though the YOY fall is still stagnation?

Would a 1.5% rise YOY be stagnation? I doubt it....I doubt we'd see "stagnation" fall out of any of the more bullish mouths

DervProf

I see Hamish is here, but not saying much. I expect he's formulating something to :beer: about.

Something like "meanwhile, in Aberdeen.........". :rotfl:

chucky

DervProf wrote: »

Halifax said that house prices fell in 2010.

<DervProf>Firmly clutches at straws<DervProf>