Halifax December 2010 MoM -1.3% QoQ -0.9% YoY -1.6%

Really2

DervProf wrote: »

The next generation of FTBers need a pause in HPI. Never ending HPI is not going to happen. Eventually the numbers have to add up, and the debt has to be paid.

I have always agreed with that, but they also need a fairly normal economy. One where the economy can withstand higher more normal base rate (5% ish).
I am struggling to see there are any winners in the current situation, but it is fairly easy to see FTB's are being sqeezed at least the same amount if not more (rent) in the current economy.

chucky

Batchy wrote: »

One word...

Stagnation!

no.

it went up and down over 3 months so it can't be stagnation.

no wait - i was pretending to be someone who didn't understand the definition of stagnation.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

<DervProf>Firmly clutches at straws<DervProf>

The irony.

Oh the sweet, sweet irony that you should type that when it is infact completely true, statistically and also that it wasn't actually Derv that said it.

Anyway, catch yer later, thread will yanked down to pre-pubescent levels from here on in.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The irony.

Oh the sweet, sweet irony that you should type that when it is infact completely true, statistically and also that it wasn't actually Derv that said it.

Anyway, catch yer later, thread will yanked down to pre-pubescent levels from here on in.

it was pulled down to pre-pubescent intelligence when you first posted on it looking for attention.

as Really is saying to you - you are looking for an argument (again) - stop using this forum for therapy!!

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I don't. Just don't see why all of a sudden you are here to tell us that this data isn't smooth enough, and therefore put a slant on your position to tell us the nationwide is what we should look at.

I take it though the YOY fall is still stagnation?

Would a 1.5% rise YOY be stagnation? I doubt it....I doubt we'd see "stagnation" fall out of any of the more bullish mouths

Yes you want an argument, i have said in the past I see 3-5%+- as a relatively stagnant year.
want a link? 2009 do?
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2068977

Down 5% - Up 5% (Stagnant)

I have said for months the halifx data is irratic, but lets just argue about that graham instead of the thread.

Graham plan, get people to argue, then he can say oh look the bulls are upset (ignoring the fact he tries is hardest to wind people up)

Unlucky dear, wont work today. find another poster.:)

DervProf

chucky wrote: »

ahh you believe in inflation...

inflation is wonderful news for FTBs with spending power being reduced trying to save for a deposit...

wonderful logic :eek:

Let's assume a FTBer is saving £500 per month towards a deposit, and £1000 per month on other living expenses. Inflation is 4%. After 12 months, that £1000 if worth £960. Assuming no increase in income, the savings towards a deposit will drop to £460 per month.

Let's assume that HPI in the meantime is -1.5% per annum. On a £120K property that will mean a decrease in price of £1800. I think that just about makes up for the reduction in monthly savings.

DervProf

chucky wrote: »

<DervProf>Firmly clutches at straws<DervProf>

DervProf quoted a fact.

chucky made a false statement about DervProf.

chucky

DervProf wrote: »

Let's assume a FTBer is saving £500 per month towards a deposit, and £1000 per month on other living expenses. Inflation is 4%. After 12 months, that £1000 if worth £960. Assuming no increase in income, the savings towards a deposit will drop to £460 per month.

Let's assume that HPI in the meantime is -1.5% per annum. On a £120K property that will mean a decrease in price of £1800. I think that just about makes up for the reduction in monthly savings.

i don't do perfect storms - they never happen.

as for your numbers you've done the usual and missed out too much - no inflation on fixed rate debt, inflation means rising rents, mortgage amount is free from inflation etc... etc... etc...

it does get very boring playing with likes of you and Devon - you don't really post very much of value.

sorry to break it to you.

chucky

DervProf wrote: »

DervProf quoted a fact.

chucky made a false statement about DervProf.

that you're clinging to the Halifax numbers desperately??

chucky didn't quote a false statement - that's a fact

Really2

DervProf wrote: »

Let's assume a FTBer is saving £500 per month towards a deposit, and £1000 per month on other living expenses. Inflation is 4%. After 12 months, that £1000 if worth £960. Assuming no increase in income, the savings towards a deposit will drop to £460 per month.

Let's assume that HPI in the meantime is -1.5% per annum. On a £120K property that will mean a decrease in price of £1800. I think that just about makes up for the reduction in monthly savings.

£1000 per month including rent? bit trim if you ask me.

But lets look at the last bit as an owner.

No increase in housing costs, and their debt has not increased YOY either (Could have deacreased, I paid off £12K last year due to low rate but I could be a one off).
So all things being equal their YoY costs have not risen as high as that of a FTB.
So a owner in equal circumstances would be able to save quicker than the FTB.

This whole thing changes greatly on which index you use... but non get's over that fact renters cost are rising faster than owners at the moment.
That could all change in the future but for nearly the last two years that is a fact hard to get past.