Halifax December 2010 MoM -1.3% QoQ -0.9% YoY -1.6%

Generali

Generali says:

- The figures are seasonally adjusted. Actual nominal month on month change is -0.7%
- The Halifax smooth annual price changes comparing the last 3 months average price with the average of the equivalent 3 months a year ago.
- Actual nominal year on year change is down 2.8%
- Actual real year on year change is down 7.4% (using November's RPI figure)
- The Nationwide's preferred figure comparing the average of this 3 months with the average of the last 3 months is -0.9% using HBOS's data
- Nationwide's version of the above is -1.0% so the rate of change is pretty close across the 2 averages
- Monthly data is just noise

N1AK

Really2 wrote: »

I have already said I expect a 5%-7% fall this year.

Is that real or nominal? If it's nominal you're more bearish than me

I have to admit that the current data may make my predictions over-optimistic. I expected houses to drop around 10-15% in real terms from mid-2010 to end-2011.

Personally I still think a long period of stagnation is the best thing for the market. It doesn't hurt home owners, it gradually makes it easier for buyers and it makes property investment look less attractive.

The_Fox_3

chucky wrote: »

you seem to be very excitable today over Halifax house prices - i've never seen you so excited over Nationwide or LR house price numbers... is Halifax the right index then?

I am excited about it mucky chucky:)

Not that these monthly figures mean that much alone, but looked at from all the indicies there is without doubt a downward trend, you would have to be a muppet not to acknowledge the fact.

And this is all happening when interest rates are at records lows and without the spending cuts really kicking in yet(unemployment).
There will be falls this year, no doubt about, and in three years property prices wil be lower than they are now. The big question is though by how much, i don't think anyone with any honesty can be certain, the falls will be anything from -15% to -50%.

Of course i don't expect you or a few other 24/7 property bulls on this board to acknowledge the fact, but there's my pennies worth:rotfl:

RenovationMan

All I know is that I got to be the first person to say "Timber" on one of these index threads

Slightly falling houseprices is a godsend to my own goals. My own property value is not falling too much, yet the fact we have falling prices means the BoE will be reluctant to increase interest rates. Excellent.

doire_2

Another index down

Bangkok-Dave

To be honest I'm all for keeping interest rates low at any cost. It makes me happier paying a small mortgage.

If prices did drop for a year or so and rates stayed like now I'd be happy. When rates and prices rise I will sell.

I love hearing rates are going nowhere.

angrypirate

And what if rates go up and prices fall?

Really2

N1AK wrote: »

Is that real or nominal? If it's nominal you're more bearish than me

Nominal, I am always nominal on falls or rises.

Really2

angrypirate wrote: »

And what if rates go up and prices fall?

The BOE would be taking LSD?

Percy1983

It seems all is heading in the right direction.

My 'rent' hasn't changed (living with paretns for those who don't remember) and my savings are earning 3% after tax right now.

All is going perfectly.