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Debate House Prices
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Halifax December 2010 MoM -1.3% QoQ -0.9% YoY -1.6%
Comments
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Graham_Devon wrote: »You never told us that when it was rising....and never told us that when you thought it was going to stagnate?
Was good enough then?
Point out where I have ever said halifax is great, the best or anything you have stated.
Nice try graham but you have the wrong guy, what about the data though instead of playing the man.
Do you think the halifax looks nice and smooth at the moment or does it fluctuate a fair bit compared to other indexes.
I have not said it is wrong because the end point will be around the same as other indexes (but saying that the gap between Halifax and nationwide a peak was a fair bit).
I was just commenting how up irratic their data seems to be compared to others, is that a bad thing to do?0 -
Two problems with that
1) unless they got pay rises above inflation (or one at all) their wages fell by the same amount meaning they can save less.
2) With IR where they are saving rates are also behind inflation meaning their money is worth less.
Stagnant YoY, 3% inflation 0.5% base rate and no wage increase is not a thing to cheer about if you are a FTB IMHO.
It could be worse, but only if house prices were beating inflation, in general owning is getting harder not easier.
Halifax said that house prices fell in 2010.
Savings rates might be behind inflation, but they were still ahead of house prices in 2010. If you left your savings in certain accounts, you might have only got a return of less than 1%, but if you shop around, you can get 2%+ after tax. And who knows, some people might have even invested in the stock market.
The bottom line is that house prices have probebly fallen in 2010, the lack of BBC News coverage of Halifax's figures prove that (apparently, it is of more imprtance that some undercover police officer didn't give evidence against some green campaigners, and that Virgin aren't paying airport fees).
Given the choice between 5%+ HPI and [STRIKE]Stagnant[/STRIKE] Negative YoY, 3% inflation 0.5% base rate and no wage increase, I know what I'd prefer if I were a FTBer.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
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Halifax said that house prices fell in 2010.
Savings rates might be behind inflation, but they were still ahead of house prices in 2010.
May I say on one index. When buying you don't get a choice off what index to buy off.
The picture is not great for FTBer's I cant see how you can say it is, they are being sqeezed the same as owners.
Unless they run on a different economy the rate they save at is being squeezed by below inflation wage rises and increasing rental costs.
The current economy is not happy clapping (:T) for anyone, even me on my 0.49% tracker has had and will have my "real" income squeezed.0 -
The current economy is not happy clapping (:T) for anyone, even me on my 0.49% tracker has had and will have my "real" income squeezed.
The current economy is a result of too much :T in the past.
No pain, no gain.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »What? Volitile?
Like I said before?
One index graham, one index one not supported by the LR data.
Do you ever think that becasue it is not replicated that the way this index is done may cause it to be more volatile than others?
It is the only index which has many these 1.X% changes over the last year.
But as we have said the end point gets to around the same, and you cant look at stagnation as MOM. The yoy is still fairly flat.0 -
The current economy is a result of too much :T in the past.
No pain, no gain.
I I was looking to purchase I would want as little pain as possible. But that may be me thinking it may be hard to buy without a job?;)
got this edit sorryGiven the choice between 5%+ HPI and [STRIKE]Stagnant[/STRIKE] Negative YoY, 3% inflation 0.5% base rate and no wage increase, I know what I'd prefer if I were a FTBer.
problem is you don't see.
as an owner.
Mortgage debt nominal (so real term falls mean nothing as the debt has not increase with inflation), housing cost minimal (not increasing like renters) wages the same.
In the real world renters are being squeezed more than owners, that is kind of my point owners can out perform FTB's at the moment all things being equal.
I can save more than a renter last year as my housing costs never increased.
I am not saying it is great for owners, but it is not great for FTBs either IMHO, stagnation is more like a battle of wills.0 -
One index graham, one index one not supported by the LR data.
Do you ever think that becasue it is not replicated that the way this index is done may cause it to be more volatile than others?
It is the only index which has many these 1.X% changes over the last year.
But as we have said the end point gets to around the same, and you cant look at stagnation as MOM. The yoy is still fairly flat.
The index is what it is.
Regardless.
I also said that last month, after yourself stating I was silly for stating the current prices were volitile. You are now arguing against me saying they are volitile, right after you have said "but they are not smooth". Make mind up time.
You appear to be fighting this fall off, saying it's just one index...well so is nationwide, so is the LR.
But they all make up a bigger picture, regardless of how much you try and kick one into the long grass.0 -
I I was looking to purchase I would want as little pain as possible. But that may be me thinking it may be hard to buy without a job?;)
OK, if you are one of the small percentage of potential FTBers who've lost their jobs, I`m sure it's very bad news. But what about those who are in work, saving a deposit, with the potential for promotion ?
If all potential FTBers had lost their jobs, or were getting cuts in pay, fair enough. I doubt if that's what's really happening though.
30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0
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