Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I've just had a thought.

-3.6%

That's pretty darn big innit

Apparently the Government have asked them to massage the figures to discourage more people from selling.

nembot

A crash would be defined with 6 monthly drops of 1% or more, so still not crash territory.

Sure it hasn't helped consumer confidence though.

the_flying_pig

It's quite interesting really. Halifax says that we're down 4% during 2010, Nationwide that we're up 2%. The six month figures are -4% and +1% respectively. The three month figures -3% and -2%.

So on balance I would say that.

(1) Prices are falling. Hardly in freefall or anything like that but falling. Plainly not going up and even 'staying level' would be a stretch.
(2) I don't read anything at all into this month's Halifax -3.6%. The best explanation IMO given where Nationwide is going and where the rest of the year has gone is that all of the last 3 months have been somewhere in the -0.5% to -1% region, and that the positive Halifax July and August figures were actually down to measurement error (given that all of Apr-June inclusive were negative and September massively negative), having the effect of hugely exagerating the September 'drop'.

I'm not unhappy with this situation.

Aberdeenangarse

Batchy wrote: »

Ill worry when i can't pay the mortgage thanks!

OK - I'll get back to you in a couple of months.

Jenniefour

FTBFun wrote: »

Unfortunately I think you've made it too simplistic, as you have ignored the fact that more and more people now live alone, which would obviously lead to increased demand. As we have a limited amount of land supply cannot keep up with this, and when combined with the UK's increasing population, IMO demand will always outpace supply...............

Sorry, but I think this is the biggest fiction going - the supply and demand argument is simply not as strong as it looks - what is affecting people's ability to buy now is can they get a mortgage. If all the suggested changes to mortgage lending get enacted - like no more interest only mortgages unless there's a credible repayment investment in place, and reviewing all the IO mortgages that exist now - this will mean that even if people want to move/buy they will not be able to - and the reposession rate may well increase.

Remember what happened in Japan - roughly same size as us, double the population and 80% of land not able to be used for anything - building, farming and the like.

And in the crash in the early 90's there came a time when very few properties were on the market - but they couldn't shift them because everyone was scared/couldn't afford to buy.

torontoboy45

Batchy wrote: »

All brought, i'm now a house owner, who has just lost 6k apparently according to Halifax. whooopidooo... bothered... and what? Doesn't stop me owning a house. Ill offset that against the real stamp duty saved, against the 10k ill save on my mortgage for the next 25 years, buy just securing the good variable rate following the end of the fixed rate. Which has just gone back up, it was top of the best buy league.

Ill worry when i can't pay the mortgage thanks!

it's unfortunate that the bbc doesn't share this view or that of the ftb'er.
just watched the 6pm news. they continue with the neg. spin - from sheffield (although they did actually use the 'd' word for once).

Graham_Devon

torontoboy45 wrote: »

it's unfortunate that the bbc doesn't share this view or that of the ftb'er.
just watched the 6pm news. they continue with the neg. spin - from sheffield (although they did actually use the 'd' word for once).

I saw that.

They agree with Hamish, a blip, it seems.

ILW

torontoboy45 wrote: »

it's unfortunate that the bbc doesn't share this view or that of the ftb'er.
just watched the 6pm news. they continue with the neg. spin - from sheffield (although they did actually use the 'd' word for once).

What is the D word?

Emy1501

Could be a blip but 3.6% is a huge blip in a month when people would have thought things would be picking up. The halifax are pretty quick getting offers out under a week in our case and therefore this could be the start of sellers coming to terms with a struggling market after no pick up after the summer holidays.

I have seen 10% drops on at least 3 of the properties we saw over the summer and little seems to have sold in September.

The problems for is the mortgage issue. People simply can't get mortgages now even like they could of 6 months ago and with all the extra properties coming to the market this are going to be a problem going forward.

No way of of predicting public sentiment but I agree with others like Graham that it seems unlikely people are going to keep putting their house on the market then taking it off when prices fall and then putting back on when they think prices are rising. There were other reasons for prices rising in 2009 dramatic fall in rates meaning savers had to make money somehow and stamp duty. All we have to look forward to now is cuts and more cuts.

I suspect though we will see between now and the end of the year how many people are serious about selling and how many are not. Still record numbers of property available in my area and 50% more than what was available around this time last year.

Cleaver

24 pages in the space of about 12 hours. You gotta love this board.

Imagine the thousands of pages we'd spew out if something important actually happened.

I can't be bothered to read through them, so would some kind soul just be able to let me know if Hamish has said that this is somehow a very good thing for rising house prices?