Cheaper Oil for Fuel?

paceinternet

Further support for bernithebiker comments:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/oil-predictions

From the graphs, you could say that in the last 2 years prices have increased from September onwards through winter, but before that, other factors had a much bigger influence.
Consider looking for somewhere close to 50p / litre in August.

LittleVermin

paceinternet wrote: »

Further support for bernithebiker comments:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/oil-predictions

From the graphs, you could say that in the last 2 years prices have increased from September onwards through winter, but before that, other factors had a much bigger influence.
..............

You must have been looking at a different graph to me! From January 2009 to about February this year the general price trend seems to have been rising - with a longer fall back in summer last year (but nothing significant in 2009) but still within the trend. I'm sure bernithebiker can give a more technical comment!

click CHART HISTORIC OIL PRICES choose 5 years from the Period menu, then click Draw.

bernithebiker

LittleVermin wrote: »

You must have been looking at a different graph to me! From January 2009 to about February this year the general price trend seems to have been rising - with a longer fall back in summer last year (but nothing significant in 2009) but still within the trend. I'm sure bernithebiker can give a more technical comment!

click CHART HISTORIC OIL PRICES choose 5 years from the Period menu, then click Draw.

Indeed, LittleVermin, that sounds about right to me. This graph is interesting;
http://www.petro29.com/courbedesprixfioul.pdf
Although it's for French heating oil prices, they should mirror UK prices fairly well.
It shows a steady price rise throughout 2009, and 2010, with just a pause for breath in August 2010.
So in conclusion, seasonal factors do have an impact, but far more important will be what OPEC do and say, refinery maintenance, etc. etc.

Look at 2008 - the price peaks big time in the summer.

(Don't forget diesel and kerosene (Jet) demand is highest in the summer, and refiners can easily switch between heat/diesel/kero).

paceinternet

The trend was rising, but if you are wanting to decide when to buy oil from a local merchant, you may be thinking do I buy in June at 59p or wait until July or August or September. If you look at the graph over 2 years, you see in more detail that each year there was movement up and down of $10+ through the summer months.
I am not suggesting it will definitely be repeated, but if it is, then waiting until the price is at one of those low points, may be an indication to buy.
The local oil merchant price can lag behind the crude price as well.

LittleVermin

bernithebiker wrote: »

..............This graph is interesting;
http://www.petro29.com/courbedesprixfioul.pdf
Although it's for French heating oil prices, they should mirror UK prices fairly well.
.....................

Thanks, berni... useful graph.

Can you post one for LPG, please?

As you know I 'enjoy' contributing to the UK LPG suppliers' bottom line (and I know from an earlier post that you are ditching a perfectly good LPG boiler as you're fed up with French LPG suppliers' prices!).

It would be good to get a plot of Platts' NW Europe price for the last, say, 5 years!

bernithebiker

LittleVermin wrote: »

Thanks, berni... useful graph.

Can you post one for LPG, please?

As you know I 'enjoy' contributing to the UK LPG suppliers' bottom line (and I know from an earlier post that you are ditching a perfectly good LPG boiler as you're fed up with French LPG suppliers' prices!).

It would be good to get a plot of Platts' NW Europe price for the last, say, 5 years!

Sorry, don't have one for LPG end user prices, but it would be much more 'lumpy' as the moves are much less frequent. i.e. flat line for a month or two, then big jump up, then flat line, big jump up, etc.

The Platts LPG curve would follow a similar pattern to the heating oil graph I posted above albeit with some variations due to shortages/surpluses of LPG at different times.

It seems that LPG suppliers are able to act in their own little world and set pretty much whatever price they feel like, regardless of what Platts or Brent, etc. are doing. This is one good reason to prefer oil over LPG. And yes, my LPG boiler has been consigned to the scrap heap.

I'm hoping for a 10% or so oil price drop, at which point I need to buy about 3000 litres (although I have space for 7000). It's a gamble - may or may not work out - watch this space!

LittleVermin

bernithebiker wrote: »

<snip>

It seems that LPG suppliers are able to act in their own little world and set pretty much whatever price they feel like, regardless of what Platts or Brent, etc. are doing. <snip>

Several of us on the Bulk LPG forum said they were going to mention this total lack of transparency in their submissions to the Office of Fair Trading study into off-grid energy - and at least two of us backed it up with figures. We now have to wait until October to see what the OFT concludes. I did ask that they include in their report a plot of Platts for the last few years.
....

ICV

Since we moved to an off-mains-gas house and started buying heating oil in Jan '09 the price has increased by 82%. Someone somewhere is taking the ****.

G_M

ICV wrote: »

Since we moved to an off-mains-gas house and started buying heating oil in Jan '09 the price has increased by 82%. Someone somewhere is taking the ****.

?? 'oil' is spelt with only 3 *s !

paceinternet

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13923695