Scottish House Prices BOOMING!!!!!

Procrastinator333

The way you write this is as if you are convinced they are going to continue to rise - fair comment?

Am I also right in thinking that you bought a few properties a while ago?

If so, then why are you not out expanding your btl empire, or starting one if the above is incorrect? Not being sarcastic, I just really don't get it. If I genuinely believed the only way was up, I would be out trying to secure further property, not telling everybody about it.

Why spend the time posting? I can understand the levels of postings made by most people, but I don't think I recall a single day I have ever logged on and not seen multiple threads and countless posts by yourself.

I just don't get it.

googler

Oh, for goodness' sake.....

Hamish, you've failed to address the following point when I've made it on two previous occasions, let's try once more;

These are AVERAGE values. Surely you must realise that with FTB mortgage lending being harder to get, that there are less sales at the lower price points, leading to the number of sales being weighted toward the higher price points, leading therefore to higher average values.

Leaving these average figures aside, can you point to ANY properties in any of the areas you've cited where a specific property or number of properties has sold for a higher figure in early 2010 than in early 2009 ????

Alternatively, is there any other source of figures you can cite that would support your assertion that prices are 'booming'?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

googler wrote: »

Oh, for goodness' sake.....

Hamish, you've failed to address the following point when I've made it on two previous occasions, let's try once more;

These are AVERAGE values. Surely you must realise that with FTB mortgage lending being harder to get, that there are less sales at the lower price points, leading to the number of sales being weighted toward the higher price points, leading therefore to higher average values.

So according to your theory, if prices are only rising because there are less FTB's and the average is skewed towards higher price points, then prices should fall dramatically if there has been a big increase in FTB sales since this time last year, as the average would be skewed towards lower price points.

Yet this is demonstrably not the case......

The number of Scottish homebuyer loans in the first quarter of 2010 was up 28% on the low seen in the first quarter of 2009.

There were 3,900 loans to first-time buyers (worth £326 million) in the first quarter of 2010, a 39% increase on the trough seen a year previous.

First-time buyers accounted for 40% of all house purchases in Scotland in the first three months of 2010, 2% more than during the last three months of 2009 and 2% more than the UK average.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2632

The number of FTB purchases in Scotland is up by 39% in the last year, whilst the number of purchases in total is only up by 28%.

So the number of FTB purchases as a percentage of total purchases has increased markedly in the last year.

If your theory held any water at all, we would expect to see average prices fall significantly over the last year in the indices as the percentage of FTB's and therefore sales at a lower price point has increased by a significant amount.

Instead, prices have risen by double digit percentages.

So the "no FTB's so the numbers are skewed" myth is well and truly busted.:rotfl:

googler

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So the "no FTB's so the numbers are skewed" myth is well and truly busted.:rotfl:

That's not what I said - I said

"that there are less sales at the lower price points, leading to the number of sales being weighted toward the higher price points, leading therefore to higher average values. "

Can you provide a distribution of sales for the average figures you quoted? If so, what are the actual numbers of sales, not mortgages?

I've looked at actual sales, and I could convincingly 'prove' that prices increased by over 16% between first and second half of 2009 in one area of Scotland. Not because of any drastic increase in prices, but because the number of sales above £300k had increased by something like 250%, those over £400k were up by a similarly high percentage. You can see the figures in a thread from a month or so ago.

Without the distribution of sales across price bands, the average price figures don't tell the full story. The mortgage figures won't necessarily match up to the sales figures, and the FTB figures you've quoted won't necessarily match up to the sales at the lower end of the market.

IveSeenTheLight

googler wrote: »

That's not what I said - I said

"Surely you must realise that with FTB mortgage lending being harder to get, that there are less sales at the lower price points, leading to the number of sales being weighted toward the higher price points, leading therefore to higher average values. "

You missed a bit out from your original quote.
I've added in for clarity.

It explains why Hamish went down the road of showing that FTB activity was increasing and not reducing as you had thought.

IveSeenTheLight

googler wrote: »

I've looked at actual sales, and I could convincingly 'prove' that prices increased by over 16% between first and second half of 2009 in one area of Scotland.

Here's the graph I take using each monthly released data and converting into a graph

Over the last year, house prices have risen.
You can see that in Mar 09, in the selected area, house prices were £151,491 and rose to £181,426 in Nov 09.
Since then they've lowered and risen again.

All this points to a fairly stagnant market over the last three years.

Not booming and certainly not crashing

Nitramak62

House prices in scotland may be rasing, but i've been trying to sell for as couple of months now, in an area that has always sold quickly & above valuation, and even at 10K below valuation had no one through the door.:(

Even Estate agent has stated that they only had 2 people in looking for property's in last month. So from my view it looks like

No buyers = No sales.

At least the rental market looks ok, as it looks like I'm going to become a landlord by default.

ruggedtoast

Scottish house prices really are booming. Apparently this place on the outskirts of Aberdeen will soon be out of financial reach of the average ambitious Scottish tenant sheep farmer.

the_flying_pig

By my calculations the value of the average Scottish house has increased by around £18 since I last looked at this thread this morning.

Is there a software wiz out there who could create a live ticker for Hamish's signature that provides a real-time update of the combined value of his twin cash [highland] cows? It'd obviously need some very careful coding to the avoid the ever-changing numbers becoming a blur.

lucylucky

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl:

Aberdeen plus 4% last month alone, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee, Inverness all up month on month and year on year.

There mat be a few areas not booming just now, but you'd have to look quite hard to find them.....;)

So the title is wrong - fine, I am happy that you admit it, so why not change it?