BP - off the hook ? ...and a BUY ?

1echidna

97trophy wrote: »

I think you are grossly underestimating the power of the US legal system.

The bill for this will be many times greater then the Exxon Valdez because of the bigger population around the Gulf of Mexico then Alaska.

The bill is not just the cost of the clean-up. The bill will include loss of earnings for hundreds of thousands of people. Such claims will stretch from a few years loss of earnings to total loss of earnings for the rest of live and the value of business some of which have been around for a long time.

My reference to BP being a strong company was with regard to the psychological blow this event will have dealt them and the knowledge that they have an unresolved safety culture issue which still afflicts them despite trying to learn the lessons of Texas City. As I understand it the third party liability is now likely to be capped at £10 billion, a large sum, but not that great in relation to BP profits. We do not yet know the exact size of the spill which is still on going, but as far as cost of clean up is concerned it is light crude (unlike heavy tarry stuff in Alaska) and it is someway from shore. It is true that a cleanup of this nature may have a "how long is a piece of string" nature but I think it is in US interests in terms of establishing precedents not too expect unreasonable things from BP

1echidna

97trophy wrote: »

I am not concerned about the US Govt, it is the civil lawsuits that are going to do the damage.

They will be covered by the new cap, probably $10 billion

1echidna

Coast Guard Chief: Gulf Spill Is Being Fought As If It Is Bigger Than Feared


10:30 am
May 14, 2010
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By Mark Memmott
Even if the amount of oil spewing from the Deepwater Horizon leak in the Gulf of Mexico is much greater than has been thought, "our mobilization of resources are for something far beyond" even the most conservative of estimates, the commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard just told reporters.
"We're attacking this as if it's a much larger spill anyway," Adm. Thad Allen declared.
The issue of whether estimates of how much oil and natural gas are spewing into the waters off Louisiana have been too conservative is very much in the news today because of reports from NPR and some other news outlets.
Experts who analyzed video of the leak tell NPR that instead of the 5,000 barrels a day of oil and gas that has been thought to be leaking, the amount may be as high as 84,000 barrels a day.
Asked if he believes the company with most responsibility for the work being done on the rig that exploded April 20 has been moving aggressively enough to stop the leak, Allen said that "in my view, BP has been relentless."

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/05/coast_guard_bp_oil_slick.html

BP are putting the work in and one would think deserve some progress shortly.

sabretoothtigger

Alternatives to deep sea oil drilling is natural gas, some discussion of it here:
http://www.pickensplan.com/news/2010/05/13/natural-gas-trucking-revolution/

I presume senator kerry would be john kerry

If usa decides to switch some bias to gas over oil it might have a more permanent effect on bp revenue

artha

97trophy wrote: »

I think you are grossly underestimating the power of the US legal system.

The bill for this will be many times greater then the Exxon Valdez because of the bigger population around the Gulf of Mexico then Alaska.

The bill is not just the cost of the clean-up. The bill will include loss of earnings for hundreds of thousands of people. Such claims will stretch from a few years loss of earnings to total loss of earnings for the rest of live and the value of business some of which have been around for a long time.

I think that to some extent you are correct in your assumptions. The US has become extremely litigational(if that's a word) over any event.We can see this spilling over to the UK in terms of personal claims for any loss event. I think that this is spiralling out of control and may signify an opportunity. Problem is I'm not sure where. Insurance?

1echidna

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/15/us/politics/15inquire.html?src=tptw

Independent Inquiry Into Oil Spill Is Urged

By MATTHEW L. WALD

I wonder whether this will happen.

1echidna

BP Spill May Highlight Role (Or Lack) Of Engineering Docs

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/05/bp_spill_may_highlight_role_or.html

Was always a bugbear of mine, finding the relevent documents.

1echidna

FORT JACKSON, La. (AP) -- Interior Secretary Ken Salazar says BP had a problem with its latest attempt to stop a massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill but is continuing the effort to stick a mile-long tube into the gusher at the ocean floor.
Salazar offered few details about the snag that occurred early Saturday during a briefing at a bird rescue center near Fort Jackson. BP PLC technicians have been carefully trying to guide the skinny tube into a leaking oil pipe to siphon crude to the surface. A stopper surrounding the tube would keep oil from leaking into the ocean.
Salazar said the company had to reconfigure its approach but is continuing the work. He said: "They are back down again ... trying to get it inserted." He wouldn't elaborate.
A BP spokesman said he hadn't received the report Salazar had, so he couldn't comment on it.
THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GULF_OIL_SPILL?SITE=WWLAM&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Delay and uncertainty about this event - what's new.

1echidna

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GULF_OIL_SPILL?SITE=FLDAY&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

BP expects oil up through syphon pipe Saturday evening (US time)

1echidna

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126852086

More delays but some temporary success spoiled by accident with robots. Recovery hopefully some time tonight.