BP - off the hook ? ...and a BUY ?

StevieJ

97trophy wrote: »

Yeah, goodbye to your money!

Yes I said 'may turn out' but you are full of certainties and seem to know it all

Masomnia

I've stuck my neck out and bought some. I reckon the chance of the latest attempt not working and having to wait for a relief well to be drilled is going to be pretty much priced in.

As for reputation, companies and governments aren't in much of a position to take more expensive options for better reputations, and I don't think the public in general is going to choose oil companies for the ethics.

So a small punt with a few hundred quid. As long as it does me better than my ISA I don't mind!

JamesU

StevieJ wrote: »

Could bottom out at £3.60 though (Fib retrace level), who knows, yer pay your money and yer takes yer chance.

What time-framework are you using for the retracement?

JamesU

97trophy

StevieJ wrote: »

but you are full of certainties and seem to know it all

I know this...trends often persist for longer then rational thinking would otherwise dictate.

Trying to call a bottom in bear trend is a fools game.

StevieJ

JamesU wrote: »

What time-framework are you using for the retracement?

JamesU

Not sure, OldCharlie on MF called that fib level quite early.

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=11911485&sort=whole#11911965

JamesU

97trophy wrote: »

I know this...trends often persist for longer then rational thinking would otherwise dictate.

Trying to call a bottom in bear trend is a fools game.

You are obviously having a good day.

Not trying to call a bottom, quite happy with things thanks.

Just curious to see how SteveJ has analysed this to compare with my previous reading of the BP technical analysis, link below. Normally it is possible to do a Fibonacci retracement but this depends on the high/low values used and this of course depends on the time-framework. It might be that a projection is required rather than a retracement and I am curious to see how this tech analysis works and would shape up in a real life example with BP.

http://www.equityclock.com/2010/05/28/bp-plc-adr-nysebp-clock-that-stock/

JamesU

Jonbvn

97trophy wrote: »

But never done at sea in these depths!

Drilling wells at such depths is quite normal now? (although bl**dy expensive). Somebody I know mentioned $200million/well.:eek:

Masomnia

Jonbvn wrote: »

Drilling wells at such depths is quite normal now? (although bl**dy expensive). Somebody I know mentioned $200million/well.:eek:

Still, pretty small compared to the $40billion that's been wiped off their market cap since this whole thing began.

Just thinking aloud here!

lvader

Normal in that it has been done before and is known to work. $200M is peanuts, the least of BPs troubles at the moment.

sabretoothtigger

Mr. Dudley and other senior company officials have said they do not expect that the operation, even if it fails, will worsen the flow of oil significantly. BP officials said a week ago that they estimated that a 10 to 15 percent increase was possible until the cap is firmly in place.

But a technician working on the project expressed concerns that engineers cannot be sure how much more oil might escape if the operation fails.

“We’re all concerned about it,” said the technician, who spoke on condition of remaining unnamed because he is not authorized to speak publicly for the company. “We simply do not have the data about the internal geometry of the blowout preventer” to determine what volume of oil is being contained by the damaged blowout preventer and any damaged equipment or debris inside it.

During the previous attempt to install a containment dome, icy water rushed into the box and filled it with natural gas hydrates. Ice crystals formed from water and natural gas under the high pressure a mile down. There was no room left for escaping oil in the dome, which also became buoyant and rose to the surface.

This time, tubes will deliver heated sea water and antifreeze to the vessel. But the technician said that the formation of hydrates was still possible.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/02/us/02spill.html?src=twt&twt=nytimes


Bad news does seem very apparent and in that sense its less risk entering at this price then previously but it could always get worse with hurricane season and government actions.


BP named as a take over target I read a few times but arent they still too big really. A merger with shell seems unlikely, who has money and would want them that much.
A name change would help with pr in the long run and anything which improves value makes the prospect more likely I guess


With the price dropping as low as 411 and a close well below my target of 443 I think it will take time (or good news) to break back through.

I expect it to retouch the lows before any big turn around much like we saw with the banks, everyone hates them, thinks ownership a lost cause so it seems reasonable to stay tuned

Lower risk would be to just buy the Ftse when they might have bottomed out, they still form a large percentage and all the oil companies have been affected partly



Harsh as todays drop might seem, it only resumes the previous trend.
The hope of a seal broke this shortly and it has now continued where it left off, the sentiment is not overplayed in that sense though it is such an extreme descent it has to halt at some point as BP is a globally successful company

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

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All we need is for the situation to stabilise. The oil leak continuing till august was not in the price, I really did not expect that myself. So if we're at bottom expectations now, then the surprise is if they manage to capture most of the oil as per the original plan ?