BP - off the hook ? ...and a BUY ?

JamesU

97trophy wrote: »

also today (1st June) is the first day of hurricane season.

Good for dispersing the oil.

JamesU

97trophy

amcluesent wrote: »

The US simply seized private bullion in the Great Depression, so it's not like they haven't got form.

I don't think the GM bondholders got a particularly fair deal from the Obama administration in 2009 (not sure of exact details)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124105303238271343.html

In a genuine Chapter 11 bankruptcy, these three groups of creditors would all be similarly situated -- because all three are, for the most part, unsecured creditors of GM. And yet according to the formula presented Monday, those with the largest claim -- the bondholders -- get the smallest piece of the restructured company by a huge margin.

Masomnia

Fixed by this time tomorrow?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/us_and_canada/10198201.stm

I may be profit-taking within 48 hours! Nice. You never know

tradetime

A little history, not sure if it has been mentioned before, I know most refer to the Exxon Valdez or the Gulf oil spill during the Iraq war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ixtoc_I_oil_spill

amcluesent

I'm tempted to get in if it breaks below £4. But then, should one ever try to catch a falling knife...?

Bullfighter

The downside risk here is limitless. There has been over 200 million barrels of oil leaked from the well, and many experts are stating that the main leak is actually occurring in a cracked well bore some 10,000ft below the seabed. This means that oil is leaking out across tens of square miles of seabed. This is one of the largest deposits of hydrocarbons known to man. This may not stop leaking in our lifetime.

The nightmare scenario (or one of many) is the use of chemical dispersants, if the summer hurricanes pick up and disperse the dispersants across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida then you are looking at massive amounts of arable farmland being destroyed.

BP will be taken over and rebranded, at pennies on the pound - book value.

So would I buy BP stock? No.

sabretoothtigger

Bull you are aptly named

The basin contains a volume of roughly 660 quadrillion gallons (2.5 × 1015 m3)

Fixed by this time tomorrow?

End of the week the article says and even then, at best it will only collect most but not all oil . I think top kill was the last chance of a complete near term solution so now they wont stop all leakage for a couple of months till new wells are founded it seems. The other gulf spill mentioned above took 10 months to stop

amcluesent

A nuclear bomb on the seabed should send down pressure waves which will collapse the bore holes at depth and seal the leak.

Anyway, the doomsters always go OTT. I remember after Saddam torched the Kuwait well-heads we were told they'd burn for years and birds would fall stone-dead out the trees in the Brazilian rain-forest. It was all sorted in a couple of weeks.

Ironic that the gesture politics and grandstanding of the politicians is now driving down the whole of the US stock market. Must have been interesting back in the 18th century when the nation's railways etc. were actually being built and politicians didn't instinctively say no to everything in case a pressure group was upset.

Bullfighter

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Bull you are aptly named

What's your point?

Sure so Saddam's scorched earth policy in Kuwait was bigger, as was the gulf of Campache leak in '79.

What did I say that you disagree with?

*Okay, I just realised that I typed 200ml Barrels, when I meant to type Gallons. Still, I stand by my post. BP are screwed. In the case of the Ixtoc spill, PEMEX were state owned and the regulatory environment was very different.

97trophy

amcluesent wrote: »

A nuclear bomb on the seabed should send down pressure waves which will collapse the bore holes at depth and seal the leak.

There are some fascinating videos on Youtube about that technique. When I first heard about it I thought it was a joke.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpPNQoTlacU

I just can't see the US doing that in the Gulf.