BP - off the hook ? ...and a BUY ?

JamesU

cardsharps wrote: »

Does anyone know what percentage of the FT-SE 100 index BP comprises?
I'm guessing it was about 10% before its recent troubles. Or is that way off the mark?

BP around 8%. RDSA/RDSB similar weighting 7-8%.

http://www.ftse.com/Indices/UK_Indices/Downloads/FTSE_100_Index_Factsheet.pdf


JamesU

sabretoothtigger

tradetime wrote: »

BP's "Top Kill" effort has failed, shares will likely take a big hit on Tuesday when markets re-open.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3_O8dvwm028&pos=1

Im not sure it'll be any worse then last week. They have other strategies that might be better even


I do wonder why they dont just keep pumping mud forever since that is less toxic to leak back out


487 to hold this week or it could be quite a mess

460 below that roughly

JamesU

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Im not sure it'll be any worse then last week. They have other strategies that might be better even I do wonder why they dont just keep pumping mud forever since that is less toxic to leak back out 487 to hold this week or it could be quite a mess 460 below that roughly

RDSB could be interesting this week. Given last weeks lows, could break below 1650.

JamesU

sabretoothtigger

Shell should be near its bottom I think. Last week was about as negative as it should get. Below 1650 is 1635 which is their uptrend and support at 1600 so thats not good news but relatively stable I think.

1635 would also match feb lows, I'd expect some buying just because of that. The sensible advice is probably just buy shell not bp




The same drawing for BP would have it broken that up trend and below that horizontal support line


BP's costs could spiral to $3bn if oil leak is not plugged http://tgr.ph/b7LbQU



If I look at the volume for BP here and in New York then 12% looks possible because we do have a bit of a trading gap in the volume around here.
It doesnt have to go down but if we do have sellers then historically it may be that buyers are less frequent and so the price falls are disproportionally larger

So that'd be 443 for the LSE BP price. It was last that price about when oil was selling for $30 a barrel and we're at $74 now so Im not sure if thats estimating a company wide loss on profits of -60% for this year because of this one incident.




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BP turns down idea of nuclear warheads to seal well -

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-a-nuke-could-plug-the-oil-well-2010-5




BP dispersant used will rupture red blood cells and accumulates in the food chain -
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/30/opinion/30shaw.html

wombat42_2

Could it push the oil price up I wonder ?

sabretoothtigger

That is a compensating factor to other companies but generally no I dont think so really, not immediately. It may affect future prices but ultimately isnt opec policy and macro factors more important then just off shore.

India has off shore and a few other places (already reliance has taken a rig offline , it was owned again by transocean I think)
Iraq is possibly the worlds largest underused resource but is quite conventional ? So I expect exploration budgets to be redirected mostly not reduced as might force oil prices up


updates from elsewhere -

Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) Cap

Installing a Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) Cap is a containment option for collecting the flow of oil from the MC252 well. The LMRP is the top half of the blow out preventer (BOP) stack.

The installation procedure first involves removing the damaged riser from the top of the BOP.

A remote operated hydraulic shear will be used to make two initial cuts and then that section will be removed by crane. A diamond wire saw will then be placed to cut the pipe close to the LMRP and the final damaged piece of riser will be removed.

The LMRP Cap is designed to seal on top of the riser stub. The seal will decrease the potential of inflow of seawater as well as improve the efficiency of oil recovery. Lines carrying methanol also are connected to the device to help stop hydrate formation.

The device will be connected to a riser extending from the Discoverer Enterprise drillship.

The LMRP Cap is on site, and it is anticipated that this option would be available for deployment by the end of May.

http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033657&contentId=7062491

http://www.bp.com/bodycopyarticle.do?categoryId=1&contentId=7052055&nicam=UK%20Oil%20Spill%20Response&nisrc=Google&nigrp=UK%20Oil%20Spill%20Response%20Brand&nipkw=bp&niadv=Text%20Ad

StevieJ

JamesU wrote: »

RDSB could be interesting this week. Given last weeks lows, could break below 1650.

JamesU

Why would you expect Shell to lose over £1 (6%) in value?

JamesU

StevieJ wrote: »

Why would you expect Shell to lose over £1 (6%) in value?

Observation rather than expectation. Short RDSB uptrend at present but despite this a low of 1670-80 on 25th. Markets rather than suspension of RDSB drilling in Gulf and their plans in Alaska this Summer.

JamesU

worldtraveller

More than £6 billion was wiped from the market value of BP last night after the oil giant’s latest failure to control its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico provoked mounting anger in the US.

With markets in London closed, BP’s German-listed shares plunged almost 8 per cent to €5.39 (£4.56) after the US Government warned that the leak from the blown-out Macondo well may not be stopped until a relief well can be drilled in August.

The share price collapse was equivalent to a slide in BP’s UK-listed market value of £6.5 billion, from £93 billion on Friday to £86.5 billion.

TimesOnline

From "Top Kill" to "Stock Kill"?

StevieJ

BP down 15% at the moment £4.22 :eek: