You have To Love The BBC and EA - Spring Bounce

Harry_Powell

Emy1501 wrote: »

Demand is not meeting supply. Agents only sold 15% of stock they have and last month more property came on than were sold. Prices have risen because people have been happy to hold onto supply in the hope that demand will pick up in the future. Demand is not picking up and as Kate Barker said you cant expect people to hold on to stock.

Doesn't one statement contradict the other? Either people are happy to hold onto stock/supply or they're not. Which is it?

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

without dragging this out and making it one of these really long and boring threads. can you let us all know what percentage of property stock estate agents need to sell so that property prices fall?

your point becomes a bit invalid because if currently 15% of property stock selling. what happens if 25% estate agents property stock was selling - it would mean even higher price rises by your theory.

as i said before effective demand is currently enough - you are generalising what demand actually does to the market.

Depends on why they are selling. If next months agents sell 25% of stock because sellers are fed up with waiting for ever then prices are likely to fall. If its because there is a lot of new demand and people are happy to pay market price or above then they are likely to rise. As supply is rising and demand is not rising in line with it then for prices to rise there will have to be a reliant on new sellers refusing to sell at below market price rather that market value.

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

Depends on why they are selling. If next months agents sell 25% of stock because sellers are fed up with waiting for ever then prices are likely to fall. If its because there is a lot of new demand and people are happy to pay market price or above then they are likely to rise. As supply is rising and demand is not rising in line with it then for prices to rise there will have to be a reliant on new sellers refusing to sell at below market price rather that market value.

according to your previous posts you were saying that prices had to fall as estate agents were only selling 15% of their housing stock.

you're now saying it depends why the the remainding 85% are unable to sell if prices fall or rise. so basically you're not sure now.

the stock of property at estate agents is irrelevant unless there is a motiviation or a need to sell. the two are exclusive of each other.

people will hold out to sell at their required price unless they have no choice but to sell at lower prices.

the hope of prices dropping due to increased supply is a dream and won't happen. prices softening has to happen but not a crash or even a correction.

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

according to your previous posts you were saying that prices had to fall as estate agents were only selling 15% of their housing stock.

you're now saying it depends why the the remainding 85% are unable to sell if prices fall or rise. so basically you're not sure now.

the stock of property at estate agents is irrelevant unless there is a motiviation or a need to sell. the two are exclusive of each other.

people will hold out to sell at their required price unless they have no choice but to sell at lower prices.

the hope of prices dropping due to increased supply is a dream and won't happen. prices softening has to happen but not a crash or even a correction.

My previous post simply pointed out demand was not meeting supply. I agree that people will not sell until they need to sell but people wont want to wait for ever for prices to rise and people will want to get on with their lives and therefore at some stage there is a chance that people will accept lower prices especially if it does not affect their ability to move on with their lives.

Time will tell though.

Emy1501

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Doesn't one statement contradict the other? Either people are happy to hold onto stock/supply or they're not. Which is it?

You cant expect people to put their life on hold for ever. Its no different to those who are being mocked for buying back in the marker when they think prices will crash in the near future. Examples are people who have kids who need to move into a different catchment area. People who want to retire and need the quity from their houses, People who's hosues are too small for their needs etc.

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

My previous post simply pointed out demand was not meeting supply. I agree that people will not sell until they need to sell but people wont want to wait for ever for prices to rise and people will want to get on with their lives and therefore at some stage there is a chance that people will accept lower prices especially if it does not affect their ability to move on with their lives.

Time will tell though.

don't you think that those that aren't forced sellers will probably be buying another property. all the increased supply will do is probably feed the effective demand by allowing them to buy their next property.

Emy1501

chucky wrote: »

don't you think that those that aren't forced sellers will probably be buying another property. all the increased supply will do is probably feed the effective demand by allowing them to buy their next property.

Depends on whats happening at the bottom of the market. The fact that the government has done a u-turn on Stamp duty for FTB's suggests there are concerns at the bottom. rightmoves last survey suggested that numbers of FTB looking to get onto the market was lower than expected. I also no a couple of people looking to offload FTB BTL's. Not having much luck at the moment but could be due to easter holidays etc.

zappahey

Emy1501 wrote: »

Demand is not meeting supply. Agents only sold 15% of stock they have and last month more property came on than were sold. Prices have risen because people have been happy to hold onto supply in the hope that demand will pick up in the future. Demand is not picking up and as Kate Barker said you cant expect people to hold on to stock.

In the area I am watching, I would argue that the demand for good housing far outstrips supply as anything good is gone almost as soon as it hits the EA's window.*

All the run of the mill stuff or stuff "with issues" just sits there and has done for a long time. Could it be that the good stuff makes up the 15% that has sold?

Maybe it was always so, apart from a few recent, exceptional years when any old tat would sell in a flash, but we didn't have rightmove and propertybee to keep track of such things.

*Disclaimer: This only refers to the area that I am watching and no claim is made that it is representative of the entire nation, your town or the street in which your cousin's best mate's sister is trying to sell.

Harry_Powell

Emy1501 wrote: »

You cant expect people to put their life on hold for ever. Its no different to those who are being mocked for buying back in the marker when they think prices will crash in the near future. Examples are people who have kids who need to move into a different catchment area. People who want to retire and need the quity from their houses, People who's hosues are too small for their needs etc.

Are you saying that the increase in supply is caused by a significant number of people moving to school catchment areas or people downsizing? I've not seen evidence for this in the media. Could you provide links?

chucky

Emy1501 wrote: »

Depends on whats happening at the bottom of the market. The fact that the government has done a u-turn on Stamp duty for FTB's suggests there are concerns at the bottom. rightmoves last survey suggested that numbers of FTB looking to get onto the market was lower than expected. I also no a couple of people looking to offload FTB BTL's. Not having much luck at the moment but could be due to easter holidays etc.

are you saying that the increased supply is due to landlords trying to offload BTL properties.

do you have any links from the media to back this up?